Atrios predicts the next president will be a Republican.

[Eric J in MN]

Cassandra

I usually hope to be wrong, but get ready for President (R) in 2017.

(Here is the link, but that's his entire blog post.)
http://www.eschatonblog.com/2015/11/cassandra.html#disqus_thread

[Juicy_Bellows]

1. I do not know who or what that is but they are on to something if HRC gets the nomination. nt.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Sour grapes make the best whine.

I do not know who or what that is but they are on to something if HRC gets the nomination. nt.


-Juicy Bellows

Sour grapes make the best whine. If Hillary is such a terrible candidate why is she beating Senator Sanders like a drum?

[Juicy_Bellows]

5. I don't know if I would call it sour grapes to state that if HRC gets the nomination she won't win.

As far as an answer to your percussive question, why is Trump or Carson leading the Republican polls? I think it's safe to say that the leader in the polls doesn't necessarily translate to the best candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Well

If you believe Donald Trump Or Ben Carson will beat Hillary Clinton in the general election there isn't anything I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

That being said, I like to think of myself as a man of deeds as well as words. A wager...

If Hillary loses the general election I will eat the most disgusting thing youcan choose for me to eat and put it on youtube. If Hillary wins you eat the most disgusting thing I choose for you to eat and put it on youtube.

Scratch that... All you have to say is "DemocratSinceBirth, I am sorry for ever doubting you or the indomitable Hillary Clinton."

[Juicy_Bellows]

8. Well that is an odd request.

I won't do a Youtube thing, I can't get my face out there too far. You understand. I could wear a bag over my head that says Juicy Bellows on it if you'd like. However, I am open to other things - I'll donate a 100 bucks to whatever charity ya like, and you donate the same towards a charity of my choosing, how's that?

If money is tight, and I totally get that, perhaps we can come up with something else.

To be honest, I wouldn't really want to see you vomit and I am sure the feeling is mutual towards me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. You didn't give me time to do an edit... I hope you saw it....

I will do the $100.00 thing... That's eight bucks a month for me to save. That's literally four 20 ounce bottles of pop a month.


Just hit me up after the election to remind me, please...


You're a good sport...

I hope you saw my edit:

Scratch that... All you have to say is "DemocratSinceBirth, I am sorry for ever doubting you or the indomitable Hillary Clinton."

She is going to fight like Hell and , imho, prevail by using "any means necessary."

[Juicy_Bellows]

12. Alright you're on.

I went back and saw your edit - can I change indomitable to abominable?

kidding.

Ditch that soda for some green tea man, it'll do you wonders.

Cheers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I have a question... Let me lay a foundation...

Even though I believe I understand odds I am far, far... far from a huge gambler but there are times where I could have bet on my favorite team to lose and win money but the emotional pain wouldn't have been worth it...

When you see how flipping awful the GO(PU) candidate is next Summer how can you help but loathe him or her and not want him or her ruined.

I have been voting since 1980 and my primary choice never won the nomination yet I had no problem supporting the eventual nominee because the GO(PU) candidate was so f---ing awful.

[Juicy_Bellows]

15. I hear you.

I have to be honest here and living in Oregon my left leaning vote doesn't really matter. I'll cross that bridge when I get to it but will likely be able to vote without consequence to the nation at large. I'll likely vote a straight dem ticket with a Sanders write in or Jill Stein. It'll make me feel better and won't hurt anyone else.

So are you saying this could be the first election that your favored primary choice is the likely nominee? Who'd you like over Obama? I leaned Edwards at first (oops).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I was going to do a thread on this...

I can (almost) empathize with the Sanders supporters who see Hillary as extinguishing hope. If I am passionate about my choice I have to allow that others are just as passionate about their choice. I was in grad school during the 84 election and was an ardent supporter of Gary Hart. I felt Mondale represented the past and I coined the term that he was a practitioner of the "politics of negativism and despair" I also felt that Hart would be a much better general election candidate yet I had no problem in wholeheartedly supporting his campaign against Reagan. After that primary I never got emotionally invested until 2008 when I supported Hillary but I had no problem in supporting Obama. In fact my buddy who is black and I drove elderly African Americans to the polls in the predominately African American Midway section of Sanford, Florida.

My primary choices by year

80-Kennedy
84-Hart
88- Gore
92-Kerrey
96-no primary
00- Gore (oops, I did vote for a primary winner though I never voted for someone in the primary who became president)
04- I think I voted for Wes Clark, not sure any more...
08 Hillary
012-no primary...

[Juicy_Bellows]

18. Thanks for the reply.

Interesting, I didn't realize you were for Hillary in '08. Gore won that damn vote in 2000 - that was what got me politically motivated. You should reconsider and make it an OP. There is a world of derision on this site right now. I have seen it grow in the short time I have been here, some old timers tell me it's primary season and other old timers tell me they've never seen it like this.

Well, I wish well on you - I've got no beef with an honest man. I am going to pull for Sanders until he gets the nomination or he doesn't.

If he doesn't I'll climb Pike's peak and reset my soul - there is a reset button, but it's hard to find!

Cheers!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. My raison d'etre is trashing the GO(PU)...

I rather the GO(PU) be the target of my ire than other Democrats.

Oh well.

[Juicy_Bellows]

22. Interesting side note, PU was my alma mater!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. What does P U stand for...

I wonder if people are getting why I call the GOP the GO(PU):

PU
1) A way of saying, "That smells awful."

2) Official scoring of a pop-up in baseball.
1) PU, Dennis! Haven't you ever heard of deodorant? Or at least breath mints?

2) A pop-up caught by the second baseman is scored as 'PU4'.

[Juicy_Bellows]

24. Pimento University. Allow me to sing:

Pimento U., oh sweet P.U.
Thy fragrant odor scents the air
A pox on Yale, poo-poo Purdue
Pimento U., my college fair

Oh Dora dear, sweet Dora dear
Keep courage up and chin held high
The stalwart sons of old P.U.
Are here at hand to do or die
P.U. P.U., we're all for you, yeah P.U.!!!

Confession time, I am a serious cartoon nerd.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I like you. I had to google it. This board can use more levity

[Juicy_Bellows]

27. Thanks! Yer not so bad yerself!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Thanx

[Hortensis]

11. That an eschaton website pings with you is something

you might consider considering. Woe is me, the end of the world is coming and Her name is Hillary-hisssss!

[Juicy_Bellows]

13. Ahh interesting - thank you for the elucidation.

Cheers!

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. It looks like you're not familiar with Atrios

He is a very well respected liberal blogger. One of the longest established. Important enough to have his own Wikipedia page, for instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atrios . I have no idea why he chose the blog name 'Eschaton', but it's not because he thinks the actual end of the world is coming.

[Hortensis]

30. Not really, though I've seen the blog at some point.

To put it mildly, it's lacking in information and insight, Muriel. I like analysts who give perspective and understanding of the big picture. The world is overloaded with armchair experts on all the mistakes people of action are making -- mostly from the vantage of after the fact, of course, but before the predicted mistakes actually occur is also common.

In this case, did he ever explain why the GOP is going to win, little- or big-picture-wise? Or just a little stir of the chat-pot for his followers to enjoy? For me, there's no there there.

[Dawson Leery]

2. "It’s Easy to Overestimate Effect of Paris Attacks on 2016 Race"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/17/upshot/why-the-paris-attacks-probably-wont-change-the-elections-outcome.html?_r=0

[BootinUp]

4. +1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Res ipsa loquitur

Prices in betting markets tracked by David Rothschild of Microsoft Research over the weekend showed virtually no change in the expected winners of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations or the general election.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

[Gothmog]

9. Predictwise has the Democrats at 58% over the GOP's 42%

[FSogol]

17. Screw that, GOTV.

[DavidDvorkin]

20. The commenters disagree.

[Kalidurga]

26. No they still have to win the EC vote

there is no clear path to victory for them. Most states that are purple swing states will go blue like they have in the past and demographics are against them. Republicans have literally po'd every demographic you can think of except for white men and even in that demographic they have po'd a lot of voters. I do see a problem if Hillary gets the nomination. She will have a hard time breaking through 50% support, she might not need that much though depending on how many votes a third party candidate gets.

[marmar]

31. Whether Hillary wins or loses.

Just kidding. Sort of.