Nine Weeks Until The Iowa Caucuses!

[onehandle]

13 Weeks Until Super Tuesday And The Primary Is Essentially Over.

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[CoffeeCat]

1. In 2007, Obama was behind by TEN points in Iowa...

...nine weeks before the Iowa caucuses, according to American Research Group.

Now, Bernie is behind in Iowa, by single digits--according to a couple of polls.

Bernie is farther ahead than Obama was, at this point.

This bodes very well for Bernie.

Bernie is not Obama, but the dynamics and the polls in Iowa are certainly following the same trajectory when you compare 2015 and 2008.

Just like in 2008, Hillary could be in for another shellacking in the Iowa caucuses.

[CoffeeCat]

7. Obama was consistently behind Hillary...

Who is cherry picking now?

Obama had lost every single Iowa poll to Hillary--up until six weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Some by a few points, some by as much as ten points.

That's the point though. Obama was behind in the early stages; just like Bernie is--but both slowly gained ground.

Obama also started out at 4 percent in Iowa--just as Bernie has.

It's undeniable that Bernie's trajectory in the Iowa polls is identical to Obama's.

[CoffeeCat]

17. My initial post still stands: 2008 and 2015 are following the same trajectory

From my initial post in this thread:

"Bernie is not Obama, but the dynamics and the polls in Iowa are certainly following the same trajectory when you compare 2015 and 2008.

Just like in 2008, Hillary could be in for another shellacking in the Iowa caucuses."

There is no dispute that both Bernie and Obama started out the Iowa caucus process polling in the single digits. Both candidate grew their support and came within single digits of Hillary in the several weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses.

And this doesn't bode well for Hillary--just like it didn't in 2008 when she came in third place in the Iowa caucuses.

[brooklynite]

10. Want to know the BIG difference?

In 2008, Clinton was consistently below 30%:



This time, Clinton is above 50%:


Understand the difference?

[CoffeeCat]

12. She was below 50 percent, because it was a 3-person horse race...

2008 was a three-person horse race between Obama, Edwards and Clinton.

It's a two-person race this time.

You're comparing apples to hockey pucks.

But nice try.

It's not going to take much to sink her numbers. Support in Iowa is soft. Just as it was in 2008.

Edited--clarity

[brooklynite]

19. You understand that bigger numbers are a GOOD thing, right?

And because this is effectively a two person race, having one candidate ABOVE 50% makes it hard for the candidate BELOW 50% to win?

nb - NOW you add "soft numbers" to the equation. Care to provide any evidence, or any reasons why Sanders hasn't been able to peel them away?

[CoffeeCat]

20. I predict that Bernie will gain ground...

...it will happen first, in Iowa--as the caucus season peaks and the ground game/heavy campaigning begins.

The reason is that the part of the caucus season where voters are fully engaged, attending rallies and making their final decisions--hasn't even begun yet. Obama wasn't winning in Iowa at this point in 2008 either. Hillary was.

Hillary held a commanding lead in Iowa for a long time, but ended up coming in third.

The real race begins in mid-December/early January--or whenever both campaigns decide to kick it into high gear.

[brooklynite]

22. So you wanted all these extra debates -- earlier -- when people weren't paying attention?

[CoffeeCat]

23. The debates have always been an introduction...

...to the candidates. It's the "first look" at the candidates, setting the stage for the primaries to begin.

Of course, people pay attention to the debates.

[Sheepshank]

11. Booo.....hissss

and Bernie supporters wonder why there are so few pro Bernie threads......too busy crappin on pro Hillary threads.

[MoonRiver]

2. Things are getting exciting!

[workinclasszero]

4. 62 days

Can't wait for the tearing down of democrats to cease and the attack on fascist republicans to begin around here!

[MoonRiver]

6. Amen to that!

[NCTraveler]

5. #hillyes nt.

[Sheepshank]

8. There are several reasons I am looking forward ....

.... to the next 9 weeks being over and done with.

[Iliyah]

9. K & R

[Vincardog]

13. Thank Gawd after Bernie wins IA the Hillary supporters will see the light and stand down

[hedda_foil]

14. I assume you're joking. Right?

[Vincardog]

15. Yes, I don't think they will ever see the light

[CoffeeCat]

21. LOL!

Bernie's winning victory will be too bright for them. They'll all be blinded by his stunning victory and they'll have no choice but to look away.

We will help them though!

[Alfresco]

18. Countdown

62 days and counting.
Can't come too soon for me.

HillYes!

[NurseJackie]

24. It seems like such a long way to go! Afterward I'll SO be looking forward to telling ...

an obnoxious neighbor of ours to ... at long last ... just: