Sanders can win Iowa and New Hampshire

[UglyGreed]

{snip}


The reason is that Sanders has two things that are pure gold in presidential politics. First, he has intensely devoted and idealistic supporters who are passionately committed to his cause and will turn out in droves on caucus and primary days. Second, he has powerful means of communications through social media, the Internet generally, and word of mouth among his devoted supporters that drive his message, his small-donor fundraising and his statewide organizations in ways that are not visible on political television and poorly understood by political pundits.

The truth is that, whatever her many virtues, Democratic rival Hillary Clinton does suffer from an enthusiasm gap. This is one reason she has underperformed among small donors compared to Sanders and why she should be worried about her supporters not turning out in droves on caucus and primary days.


http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/261634-sanders-can-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire

[upaloopa]

1. Hillary has some gold Bernie doesn't have

She leads in IA by double digits.
If every Bernie supporter voted we could still win even if some of of Hillary supporters stayed home.
But the thing Bernie can never do is elect the first woman to the a Presidency. I know that is poo-pooed here but it is something that gets out the vote.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Didn't work in 2008. Just saying.

[upaloopa]

4. This isn't 2008 just saying

I can never understand comparing Hillary vs Obama to Hillary vs Sanders.

You have to be fooling yourself to think Bernie has the stuff Obama had in 2008.

[restorefreedom]

6. bernie has better.

we now know that obama was a centrist in progressive clothing. bernie has 40 years of progressivism to show his authenticity.

people will know what they are getting when they vote for bernie. that tends to be very appealing.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Damn right.

Bernie is an AUTHENTIC PROGRESSIVE. Obama? Not even close. The only reason Obama won was because he bamboozled the Progressives. We're not falling for the "play to the left during the Primaries and move to the center in the GE" crap anymore. Bernie IS a true, AUTHENTIC Progressive. - no evolving required.. He is who he has Always been.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[restorefreedom]

12. an authentic progressive doesn't have to think where he is before he speaks

MAJOR advantage with a lot of traveling.

yes, too tired of playing left then center bullshit. if progressive ideals are worth running on, they are worth running on all the time

go bernie!!

[daybranch]

33. you got it!

very insightful.
Hillary people do not realize more people are joining the democratic party everyday to support Bernie i the primaries.

[restorefreedom]

38. gonna be some surprises on election days, methinks :) nt

[CoffeeCat]

11. No one is comparing Sanders to Obama...

Last edited Tue Dec 1, 2015, 03:34 PM - Edit history (1)

We know that Sanders isn't Obama.

But you know what is the same? Hillary.

She came in third in the Iowa caucuses. She does not know how to campaign well here. In 2008 she came in as the inevitable candidate with media endorsements galore and all of the well-known politicians standing by her.

She thought she had it in the bag. That's what's similar.

Support for her in Iowa is soft in 2016. Just like it was in 2008.

As these campaigns really ramp up, during the last 4-5 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Sanders will hold rallies with thousands of supporters. Hillary will never get those numbers. The optics alone will kill her.

Once Iowans engage and really pay attention, they'll see that Bernie provides a viable alternative to the oh-so-inevtiable one. We've seen this happen before. It will happen again. The Iowa Democratic party has an incredibly strong Progressive contingent. That's how Obama won. That's how Sanders will win.

This is what is similar to 2008. It's almost like deja vu.

[morningfog]

24. You failure to understand is curious. The constant here is Hillary.

Bernie doesn't need "Obama 2008 stuff." Bernie needs only "Hillary's stuff" as the opponent.

[upaloopa]

31. Well bookmark that and talk to me in the spring

[Sheepshank]

23. So many Bernie supporters resting their laurels on 2008

.....so many about to be very disappointed.

[UglyGreed]

14. But we could elect

the first President of of Jewish descent........ unless Hillary converts just in time for the election, then it would be a toss up. We all know how HRC is always evolving

[Amimnoch]

20. Most of all, she's the better candidate to actually make things progress

He's good at words,

She's good at making things happen.

[Laser102]

29. You are right. I know I'm psyched! First woman in my lifetime! Awesome!

[Dustlawyer]

30. You could have stopped after your 4th word, "Hillary has some gold."

That's her main advantage other than her name recognition.

[Gothmog]

3. The ground game and organization is critical in caucus states

The Clinton campaign has most of the same people who helped Obama win in 2008

[CoffeeCat]

10. Clinton will not have Obama's ground game; Sanders will

Sure, Clinton has secured support from some of the political top brass who organizied Obama's ground game in Iowa. That's nearly meaningless though.

I was part of Obama's 2008 ground game. What made his ground game so extraordinary wasn't the top brass; it was the thousands of young people who were out knocking on doors, phone calling and doing the leg work.

Hillary does not have that depth of support in Iowa--especially from young people. Those young people who are always the centerpiece of a solid ground game--are solidly in Bernie's camp.

Please remember that all of those Obama ground-game foot soldiers did NOT support Hillary Clinton in 2008. They wanted an alternative to Hillary. Do you really think they're going to support Clinton over Sanders--when they rejected her in 2008?

They'll go to Sanders. I sure did.

[Gothmog]

26. Time will tell

We are two months away from the Iowa caucuses

[CoffeeCat]

28. I agree with you there...

I think there are a lot of unknowns at this point.

I can't wait to see what happens. I've been here before and I've seen several rounds of the Iowa caucuses.

I'm fascinated to see how all of this plays out--and how each camp campaigns, how well attended their speeches/campaign rallies will be, how organized their ground games are and what the caucus turnout will be like.

We are kind of in a holding pattern here.

I imagine things will really ramp up after the next/final Democratic debate.

[daybranch]

35. I also worked very hard for Obama in 2008 and 2012

But if Obama was running against Sanders, I would gladly support Sanders.
Actually I think Sanders will do more for African Americans than Obama.
I also think Sanders will do more for women than Hillary.
" " Latinos etc. , etc.
Bernie is a real progressive, Hillary is to the right of Obama who is a centrist, what does that make her?
Go Bernie!

[daybranch]

37. Not true. Only big paid staffers selling services they really did not deliver

Many of Obama's stove piped people especially in 2012 went to Hillary for the money. Those who worked as real volunteers went to Sanders.

[Major Hogwash]

5. It's going to be mighty fucking cold in January in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

Her supporter's enthusiasm will fall like the temperatures next month!

[Vincardog]

9. It will be Feb. 1 when I caucus for Bernie in IA and we win.

[sleepyvoter]

44. Clinton supporters would rather stay home in their warm home instead of going out in the bitter cold

just to vote or caucus for Clinton, because you know she's going to be the nominee anyway.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. He can and he will win Iowa and NH.

The power of Reddit, Facebook, Twitter, Spotify, Instagram, Progressive blogs is immeasurable. He's got a lock on the Internet support, plus - 87.4% of the population now uses and gets their news from the Internet. Bernie will win Iowa and NH.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Segami]

13. K&R

[fbc]

15. Once Bernie wins the first two primaries, Hillary's support will collapse.

People like to vote for the winner - that's just human nature. And frankly it is what much of Hillary's current support is built upon: her inevitability.

Once that inevitability is shattered, voters will run from her in droves.

[murielm99]

16. What amazes me is that

many of you people actually believe that.

[fbc]

17. Let's hope it works out that way because Hillary would lose a general election

Her unfavorables in the battleground stats are astronomical.

I have yet to see a Hillary supporter explain how Hillary can win a general election without the battleground states.

[Sheepshank]

25. And what possible markers, or polols do you have to support that supposition?

there is nothing out there, except polls, betting, numbers that say the opposite.

It's making Bernie supporters look very foolish when they throw out shit like that.

[frylock]

36. Yeah, it's not like people have flat out admitted they support her because they believe she can win.

Wasn't that the basis of SEIU's endorsement?

[Politicub]

18. He may win in NH

Along with Chris Christie on the GOP side. They both seem to be doing well in the state.

I would be surprised if he wins IA based on polling data, but stranger things have happened.

[WillyT]

19. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[JDPriestly]

21. K&R.

[Enthusiast]

22. Kicked and recommended a whole bunch!

[demwing]

27. One thing Clinton supporters have is adamancy

Adamant that the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary is the same as criticism of Hillary
Adamant that criticism of Hillary is the same as support of Republicans
Adamant that any discussion of Hillary's character issues is evidence of misogyny
Adamant that the way to get money out of politics is to raise more money
Adamant that despite what YOU may want in a candidate, this is Hillary's time.

We'll see whether adamancy trumps enthusiasm...

[Tarc]

32. Sanders should be expected to win the state next door

He has never led in Iowa though, and is highly unlikely to gain traction there.

[Ed Suspicious]

34. Really?

Agree to disagree about Bernie's chances.

[demwing]

40. Welcome to "Highly Unlikely"

Last 30 days of polling in IA. In the last 10 days, Bernie has closed the gap by 14 points! I call that gaining traction...

[firebrand80]

42. How many polls does that last 10 days represent?

[bravenak]

39. Can. Won't though.

[Quixote1818]

41. Kick

[firebrand80]

43. It's certainly possible

I still think he gets plastered on Super Tuesday

[Rosa Luxemburg]

45. Hillary will peak by the end of December

Once January comes things will change in Bernie's favor

[brooklynite]

46. When I make a prediction, I take the time to explain the basis for it...

Too busy to reciprocate?

[UglyGreed]

47. K