2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNo one trusts Clinton except middle aged and older Democrats. Everyone else deeply distrusts her.
Only 26% of Independents think Clinton is "honest and trustworthy."Only 7% of Republicans agree that Clinton is "honest and trustworthy."
By comparison, the next most distrusted candidate in either party, Trump, does 10% better than Clinton and is more trusted than Clinton among Independents, and Trump has more cross-over appeal among Democrats as compared to Clinton's virtually nonexistent appeal among Republicans.
Sanders is the most trusted candidate. He is trusted by almost three times as many Independents as Clinton (64%) and by over five times as many Republicans (39%).
This means Clinton would badly lose the independent vote and has virtually no potential for cross-over appeal for ticket-splitting Republicans.
Even among Democrats, Clinton is losing to Sanders by 66% to 17% among 18-29 year old Democrats. Only 24% of voters 18-34 trust Clinton, and Sanders is two and a half times more trusted (59%).
Can Clinton win the primary when she's only trusted by middle aged Democrats? Maybe, but it would be a dead end for our general election hopes because Clinton cannot expand beyond her base of middle aged moderate Democrats.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)She is winning with ALL DEMOCRATIC GROUPS except millenials where he barely beats her. Why did you leave out very important Demographics? We matter too!!! Why are you erasing us like we do not exist!?!?
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Mondale did excellent among minorities in the Democratic primaries; black voters supported him over Jackson five-to-three!
Reagan fucking crushed Mondale in the General. it was like a cheeto going up against a steamroller. Mondale carried his home state, barely. it was one of the most spectacular defeats in Us presidential history. It hit the democratic party so hard that we still have trouble feeling the left side of our body.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)You can sweep a primary and still get your teeth kicked out in the general.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)has broad support from Americans across the racial-ethnic-religious spectrum. Bernie wants it but hasn't achieved it.
The GOP is now the party of conservative white Christians and Big Money -- both very much minorities -- and America knows it, so their nominee will focus on winning by overwhelming campaign spending, mud slinging, voter suppression, and perhaps even less legal measures.
Again, Hillary is the one candidate supported by all major Democratic voter groups. This will also be true for most of Bernie's and O'Malley's supporters when and if the time comes.
She is the best choice we have to represent the 300 million people of our very diverse republic. No one else even begins to come close.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She only has support from uninformed and/or right-leaning Democrats. She's not popular with left-leaning Dems or Independents. And the right wing absolutely abhors her. You can't win the general with 30 percent of the voters - which is about what she has.
She will lose Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado and, thus, the presidency.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)We need to win the swing states. Ask President Gore about how the popular vote matters if the Electoral College votes in your opponent. (answer: it doesn't trump the electoral college)
We need to win the swing states and that means we need to win the Independent voters, and all voters who can be swayed.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)be able to trust to tell you the truth is yourself. I do try to not betray my responsibility to myself by indulging in satisfying beliefs that are contradicted by easily obtained information. I also do like to believe I succeed most of the time. Think about it.
BTW, I have always been a left-leaning Democrat and fully expect to vote for HRC. I am also part of by far the largest block in the Democratic Party, and we are trying to stop hard-core conservatives from ruining this country and continue the rebuilding we helped start when we elected Obama. IMO, you went astray when you decided to believe that people like me are actually centrist and even right-leaning, and that's interfering with your understanding of what's happening.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Hard to poll them since they are not likely voters, many of them. It take two cycles of voting to be on those rolls. He is not winning the hispanic and black youth, he is winning the white youth by large margins. It shifts the totals in his favor. But since they do not vote as consistantly as we do they are not to be counted on to WIN it for him.
His only chances for winning in primaries are largely populated by a homogenous group.
Once in diverse places he loses his ability to connect with the voters. They do not know him. He never made himself known in 30 years.
Hillary will beat him in all but one or two states as it stands and I see no where for him to start peeling off her voters since they like her. Nobody ever explains how he wins the primary with only 3 STATES. It boggles my mind.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)That 59% is NOT just white men. Especially among Millennials, there is no way of getting to 59 % with just white men.
And if 18-29 year olds are difficult to poll, Clinton could be in for a nasty surprise when the Millennials vote in droves in the primaries.
DWS and her coronation committee may want to ignore the Millennials altogether, but that's going to be difficult when they start casting votes.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Counting on millenials voting in droves will lead to heartache.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Clinton's strategy focuses so much on the established base, she will bring heartache in the GE if she were to be nominated. Centrist Third Way corporatism has come and gone. It is over.
Much as I'd like to see a female president one day, I'd rather have a candidate who's worldview isn't stuck in the 90-ies. I'd prefer one who is principled, and who doesn't need three focus groups and five polls before she reluctantly shifts to the right side of history on GLBT rights - to name but one example.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Completely ignores complex issues such as erasure and intersectionality.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)The nineties preceded the recession we are still in (except for the 1 %).
Not discounting the complexity of the issue, but maybe there are some things from the forties we should revisit?
bravenak
(34,648 posts)No legislation on lynching, we were still being murdered in droves. Womens rights got nowhere. Black domestics were left out of the New Deal, black veterns were unable to use their GI bills in many places. It was GREAT for white men, the rest of us got that trickle down socialism.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)You could add the oppression of LGBT people and the poverty among elder citizens and a few things more.
Now here is a question for you:
Does everyone, irrespective of age and gender and race and sexual orientation, deserve to enjoy a long sustained era of economic growth?
Or should we drag everybody down to the level of the dispossessed and the working poor?
(Hint: Clinton's corporate donors would like the second answer.)
bravenak
(34,648 posts)But it won't happen for minorities until the race shit is fixed. We will recieve trickle down unless we get our men out of jail, our schools get a fair share of money and teachers, our kids get treated just like white kids by teachers and police. As it stands, the bulk would go to those who ALREADY have more than us. And we will be ignored and told what is best for us and that we are never satisfied as we die in the streets.
A man who huffs off from confrontation is not strong enough for this fight. A man who has no idea what is being done in his name to those very blacks he professes to care about is not READY.
A man who erases the race of the sanitation strikers does not understand the issues facing my people. A man who co opts the legacy of MLK for his political use is not good enough. He cannot do anything people say he can and he knows it.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Sanders gave BLM the podium at his next rally. Clinton had them expulsed. Who is the callous one here? Who is unready to lead the nation? Who is willing to listen and address issues? And who is once again signalling an air of entitlement: "don't get between me and my coronation."?
ismnotwasm
(42,014 posts)It gets old.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)and rainbows. I can get on board with that.
CBGLuthier
(12,723 posts)but not all of us "old folk" buy her brand of horseshit.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Why must we pretend this doesn't exist? Please explain:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/bernie-sanders-1972-essay-rape-fantasy-surfaces-article-1.2240379
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I guess I better tell my husband that I am too old to bear him the one final child he wants. Must start getting my outfit ready for my funeral.
senz
(11,945 posts)And many more offline.
That old article that you hope to sink him with was brought out in the media months ago. He wrote it over 40 years ago as an attempt to analyze some of the problems in society back in the 70s, and he has already addressed the article as very poorly written.
He was a successful mayor and a faithful, hardworking congressman and senator for 25 years. He is who he has been for all this time. He's had no infidelities or scandals while serving the public, and his relationship with his wife Jane is solid and faithful.
You're too late with the article. Trying to use it to hurt him is not a tactic anyone would be proud of.
Paka
(2,760 posts)I do not trust HRC and haven't for over 20 years. She is a pathetic liar. But I guess I don't count as a WOMAN because I don't think a vagina is everything in this election.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)I think she'll go whichever way the wind is blowing, and if it's blowing left, I think she'll do a fine job as President. If the wind is blowing right (as it was when her husband was President), we'll see triangulation with the right on a number of key issues, but a basically centrist government.
We may still get some liberal appointments to the SCOTUS out of Hillary if we have 60+ votes in the Senate, and this will happen without regard to the direction the political wind is blowing. If Generation Y (more liberal than my 50/50 split Generation X) and the Millennials (more liberal than Generation Y) are any indication, and if Canada's recent elections are a harbinger of things to come, the wind does appear to be blowing left. That assuages some of my fears regarding another Clinton Presidency. Besides, I think Bill would like to see Hillary correct some of his mistakes and will be interested in shoring up his legacy through Hillary's Presidency (if he can--no clue as to how much influence he may actually wield over Hillary's decision-making processes).
-Laelth
Paka
(2,760 posts)I hope you are right. I just don't have the same faith you do that she won't continue tacking right. IMHO, she wouldn't hesitate for one second to throw the lefties like myself "under the bus" given the slightest chance.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)She (& Bill) are literally millions in debt to One Percent/Wall Street/Big Banking & multiple corporate interests. Those debts will be called in if she ends up in the Oval Office. As long as the Clintons make nice, should she be elected, the dollars will also keep flowing in to the Clinton Family Foundation.
Response to MaggieD (Reply #3)
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Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Great comeback!
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Stop speaking for me.
I'm a woman. I trust him. Therefore "women don't trust" is WRONG.
Why must you pretend you speak for all women? You don't speak for me.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)But hey, skewed polls, right?
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Stay in love with your landline polls!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/03/12/the-problem-with-modern-polling-in-one-chart/
&w=1484
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)I don't see how she can win anything.
It's just that simple.
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)I don't trust her at all and don't see how she could win.
rusty quoin
(6,133 posts)This guy from 60s university thinking is the favorite of today's university thinking. I find it exciting. I finally have hope.
That said, they have to vote in large numbers.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)The iceberg is dead ahead and they are speeding up instead of trying to avoid it.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)If you are waiting for Independents to do phone-banking and election work, you'll be covered in cobwebs.
betsuni
(25,663 posts)Just in the last hour I've seen "porcine chorus" and "goon squad" and that anyone supporting Clinton are fools and that's even worse than Stockholm Syndrome.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)I will be thinking of them all with affection in my heart as I dial numbers when phone-banking for HRC in the GE.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She'll lose.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)large, solid core of the Democratic Party. Seems I've been missing all the good stuff here. Darn?
pinebox
(5,761 posts)She has a laundry list a mile long of issues and yet her supporters don't think this matters. She's faulty! In a general she's going to get slaughtered. That is my biggest fear. She is popular in the dem bubble ONLY. The entire country is NOT democrats. I wish people would realize that.
senz
(11,945 posts)Progressive Democrats see right through her.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)your lies credence?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Brought to DU by Bernie supporters.
{Edited if accuracy}
pinebox
(5,761 posts)And changes her position every week.
But of course any reality that shows Hillary is her real light is BS right wing LOL
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Wait! ...
Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #66)
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1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)You'll have to ask a HRC-supporter.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)So maybe you can answer.
Cha
(297,763 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)..."errors".
For example, when did Hillary Clinton vote for war with Syria? When did the US go to war with Syria?
pinebox
(5,761 posts)Are these lies? Made up by Bernie supporters? Are they? No this is YOUR candidate. OWN IT!
Hillary and the issues;
DOMA
DADT
NAFTA
No living wage
No national health care
KXL
TPP
Lies about taking sniper fire
Iraq war vote
Massive ties to wall street and big banks
Disparaging remarks about undocumented workers
Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)I guess your typical HRC supporter is pretty comfy. I haven't ran into any downtrodden Hillary supporters. However, I've found a few wealthy Sanders supporters. Anecdotal, sure - but it's true from my perspective. Which is what anecdotal means... I'm feeling redundant, kinda like trying to speak to her supporters - it's futile.
Ino
(3,366 posts)and don't trust a thing she says.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Dude dissed Dems for decades and refused to join the party, but suddenly has a conversion and decides to opportunistically run to be nominated as the Dem candidate?
Proposes pie in the sky shit and promises voters things he KNOWS he cannot pass, and demonstrated that he cannot pass them over 25 years in congress.
Seriously, what is there to trust about a politician like that?????? Nothing trustworthy about Bernie in the least.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)If they can do it, so can the USA.
Need to get things passed? Stop caving to the GOP all the time. Campaign on every level. 50 state strategy. Turn red to purple and purple to blue and blue to deep-deep-deep-blue no-go area for the GOP. We can do that by engaging the voters who never turn up at elections. But they will turn up if they have something to vote for. Address their issues.
"Yes we can", remember?
senz
(11,945 posts)always voting and caucusing with them.
I don't understand where you're coming from. It doesn't make sense -- unless you know nothing about Bernie Sanders.
840high
(17,196 posts)beltanefauve
(1,784 posts)White female with a 60 year old African American husband. Neither of us trust her! Our Thanksgiving dinner had 14 guests, mostly AAs,and all for Bernie.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)That does not bode well for Hillary and the Democratic Party if she leads the ticket.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
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senz
(11,945 posts)And it's not nice to call people "idiots" when they're respectful toward you.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)To me, it appears that Clinton's chances of winning the nomination are around 80%, and the demographics say that the Republicans' chances of winning the White House are a mere 15 to 20%. In all likelihood, Clinton will be elected President.
These "trustworthiness" numbers are of little concern to me.
-Laelth
Robbins
(5,066 posts)we are all screwed.if you were disappointed with obama you haven't seen anything yet.
if she is nominee i just don't care who wins.things will never change as long as liberals and progressives keep with the voting out of fear of republicans for phonys like clinton who are neoliberals and say you have no choice but to vote for me meanwhile i continue to work against liberals and progressives.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I was in my 20s when she was First Lady and I lived one state over when she was FL of Ark. I've known her my entire adult life and I don't trust a thing she says.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts). . . are usually wiser than you youngsters, too!!!
betsuni
(25,663 posts)No idea.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)?v=0
oberliner
(58,724 posts)For Sanders, it's 78 percent of Democrats. Not a particularly significant difference.
The poll also asks about leadership qualities:
91 percent of Democrats say that Hillary has strong leadership qualities. For Sanders, it's 68 percent of Democrats.
In terms of Hillary vs Republicans - she beats all of them in head to head match ups.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)if your neocon or corporist
Clinton would be disaster.
your forgeting bernie does better vs trump,cruz,and carson.and they both do same vs rubio.and your taking it for granted with her dislike numbers her numbers will stay the same.
She is running ad that is trying to stir woman against men.you clinton supporters should remember that next time you bash bernie bashing wall street.
for those on social safety net clinton would screw us over just as much as republicans.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I would be proud to work and vote for either one of them in the general election.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Those match-ups involve likely voter screens that assume good turnout. Clinton also has a enthusiasm problem - only a small number of Democrats tell pollsters they are very enthusiastic to vote for Clinton.
Very enthusiastic voters drive turnout. A small number of very enthusiastic supporters points to low turnout. Couple that with the high "don't trust" numbers, and it start looking very dangerous for turnout.
But the real danger is it doesn't look like Team Clinton thinks this could even be a problem, much less have any plans to address it.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Remember there are really only a few states that will actually matter.
A big percentage of those self-proclaimed independents live in states like Texas, which she could lose 90-10 and it wouldn't make a difference.
I'd be more curious to see what the numbers look like in the swing states than the national ones.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Democratic-leaning independents are among those with the abysmal "trust" rating in the OP.
Well, on headline numbers, Clinton is generally doing worse than on national polls. However, "swing state" polling has been pretty thin and infrequent, since many of them have later primaries....and polls for anywhere past IA are going to be moved by IA's results anyway.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)My hope, though, is that either Hillary or Bernie would be able to do pretty well with the voters going up against the likes of what the Republicans put up. I know it will take a lot of hard work, but I feel pretty confident that we can keep the presidency in the hands of the Democratic party in this upcoming election. The Republican options should be sufficiently disturbing to the general population - especially in the swing states.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)"Republicans bad" does not work with Democratic-leaning independents. They do not trust the Democratic party, or they'd be Democrats. Also, our 2014 and 2010 campaigns relied heavily on "Republicans bad!", and Democratic-leaning independents didn't' show up.
Again, there's a very big turnout problem looming for 2016, and I don't think Team Clinton even thinks it can happen, much less is developing a plan for it. They seem to be entirely relying on "Who else you gonna vote for?", which is a variation on "Republicans bad!".
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think a straightforward comparison between who the Democratic nominee is and who the Republican nominee is will result in most independents breaking to the Democrat - be that person Hillary or Bernie.
I think that either one of them is much more in sync with the majority of the population on the major issues of concern for them than any of the Republican candidates will be.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)This is another variation on "Republicans bad!"
Democratic-leaning independents are not making this comparison. Because they never vote for the Republican. They either vote for the Democrat or stay home. They will only be looking at the Democrat when deciding to vote or stay home.
A lot of polling makes the mistake of lumping independents into one blob. They aren't. There's "true independents" who will vote for either party. They're only about 10% of the electorate, utterly uninformed, and will chose almost entirely on a whim.
Republican-leaning independents are to the left of the median Republican. They make up about 20% of the electorate. They will never vote for a Democrat. They will either vote Republican or stay home.
Democratic-leaning independents are to the left of the median Democrat. They make up about 20% of the electorate. They will never vote for a Republican. They will either vote Democratic or stay home.
When polls lump these into a single blob, they average out the groups to look like they're in the center. Just like lumping Democrats and Republicans together would make it look like both parties are in the center.
We need Democratic-leaning independents to turn out, or we lose. They will not look at the Republican. They are not in the party, so they will not vote out of loyalty. They are only looking at the Democratic candidate, and deciding to vote or stay home. "Who else you gonna vote for" or any other variation of "Republican bad!" will not keep them from staying home.
TBF
(32,106 posts)and she is not my favorite, to put it politely.
I believe it is time to move past the Clinton/Bush families. They had their chances.
Time for new faces - even if they are in their 70s. I want to hear what will be done about income inequality and climate change - the 2 biggest issues we are facing.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
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Hepburn
(21,054 posts)In no manner do I believe a word that comes out of the mouth of HRC.
bigtree
(86,006 posts)...on 'trustwortyness.'
The fact that a majority of respondents think Trump is trustworthy says everything about this poll.
Pointing to her appeal among republicans is a loser for me, as well. Who the hell cares what they think?
This is what anti-Hillary supporters are promoting now? Who republicans like among our candidates and how the GOP's leading slickster is polling?
I thought the incessant whining about every slight and criticism of Sanders was the height of inanity. I was wrong. This is far worse.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)but, the really funny part (to me) is when she went on to say that she liked Carly Fiorina and was thinking of voting for her!
wow.
Houston, we have a most definite image problem !!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)after your thread about Iowa averages last week.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251848660
There, your "analysis" was hugely flawed. Whether that was intentional or unintentional, we can't know.
However, it does speak to the quality of thought that you put into your analysis of polls.
Sid
book_worm
(15,951 posts)for him.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)his support among them has been growing.
Of course i say she has done squt for them.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I'm 45 and I don't trust her.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)Elderly is always 10 years older!
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I'm stealing that!
When I'm 80, that will be the new "middle aged."
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)MineralMan
(146,336 posts)When you say "No one," you're automatically wrong. Way overgeneralized.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)gordyfl
(598 posts)It's strange how polls show Hillary is not trusted by a majority, yet polls show her as the leading candidate.
I also can't remember the last time a presidential candidate was the the center of an FBI probe. I think that's a first.
questionseverything
(9,661 posts)we have truly fallen down the rabbit hole
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)gordyfl
(598 posts)I used to trust Hillary - back in the 90's.
When she ran for NY Senator she took lots of money from Wall Street.
Later there was that controversy of her flying on private jets provided by Citigroup and Saban Capital.
Then receiving more and more donations from BIG Donors and large corporations.
Then there was all those six-figure speeches.
She answers both "yes" and "no" when asked a question.
Her flip-flops.
One story I read -- She and Bill were planning on a vacation. Hillary commissioned a poll to find out "where" they should go that would be "most endearing to voters".
From what I heard, she took some acting lessons - recommended by Bill.
Oh....the list goes on and on...
CharlotteVale
(2,717 posts)I'm in that category myself and I certainly don't.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)On my fb page a poll was posted that proves it!
71% owned guns! 4% had investment accounts on Wall Street. 32% played HS football. 51% remember the good old days and they are "sick of Washington"!!!
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)they would have called "Meathead" in his younger days
Sancho
(9,070 posts)of course, all one needs to do is look at the audience at some of the rallies.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)How about this rally?
Maybe this rally?
Or even this rally?
Oh, yeah, lots of "Archie Bunker" types
Sancho
(9,070 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Not to mention lots of "Ediths" and "Jeffersons", too.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)and many of them don't trust her either.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)$350,000 net worth, this year he has $800,000 net worth. He only earns $174,000 a year in Congress. He must have collected a lot of promises in a year. No, dont trust Sanders.
Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)Well, that's not quite true. I trust her to be in it for herself, to sell out her erstwhile allies when convenient, and to do what the corporate money tells her needs doing. Does that count?
TransitJohn
(6,932 posts)44 year old white guy doesn't trust her. She's a corporate hawk. Tired of the same policies in place since I was a child and Reagan was President. She'll be more of the same.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)ismnotwasm
(42,014 posts)No one? Not one youth? Not one millenial Democrat? No one?
And explain why I should care what Rebulicans think of Hillary, OR Sanders for that matter
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)HassleCat
(6,409 posts)This "can't trust her" thing will not prevent her from beating the Republican. Sure, Sanders would be a better candidate in the general election, but Clinton will be good enough. When confronted with a choice between Clinton, whom they don't trust, or the Republican, who is batcrap crazy in addition to being untrustworthy, they will go for Clinton.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)I'm old and voting for Bernie
Gothmog
(145,631 posts)Your attemps at spin are being ignored in the real world. Clinton is only 93% on ptedictwise