So, why is O'Malley still in the race?

[Godhumor]

Last edited Tue Dec 8, 2015, 09:56 AM - Edit history (2)

The hope that he could be making a play for second place seems to be faint based on the latest round of polls, he's cut his staffing to the bone and he is receiving almost no air time at all. Why is he still in it?

Is it because:

He doesn't want a de facto nominee in case one of the other two has to drop out before the voting ends? Possible, I suppose. But the threat of Clinton being indicted looks to be nil at this point, and Bernie is showing no indication he's giving up the race.

He wants to keep a national platform for as long as possible to share his governing philosophy? MOM isn't exactly an outsider, and he really doesn't have much to separate himself from the other candidates.

He's trying to position himself for an administrative position with the eventual nominee? I think this is the most likely. I figure he is trying to show the other two he could be VP (Highly doubtful to no chance with Clinton) or, at least, an effective cabinet member..

Something else?

On edit: this is not an attack, it really isn't. Some of my favorite people in GDP are MOM supporters. I am curious as to the motivations for a candidate who is clearly well outside the two frontrunners heading into the primaries and had very little shot to head off their momentum.

[99th_Monkey]

1. "Bernie is showing indication he's giving up the race. " <-- Is this a typo?

I have seen NO indication whatsoever that "Bernie is giving up"

Do you have a link, showing how Bernie is "giving up"? or
is this some kind of brain-fart?

Bernie "giving up" would be news to me. Far from it.

Bernie is in this to stay, all the way.

[Godhumor]

2. Yup typo. Forgotten "No", rather

All fixed.

[lovemydog]

3. Perhaps because he thinks he would be a good President.

Perhaps to help position himself for a presidential run in four or eight years.

Perhaps to strengthen his voice as a liberal policy leader and coalition builder in his home State and on the national scene.

Perhaps he wants a better present and future for his family and constituency.

[BlueMTexpat]

13. Good answers, IMO. eom

[jeff47]

4. ...says the guy who pointed out 60+ percent don't decide until closer to caucus day.

Was it yesterday you pointed that out, or the day before?

[Godhumor]

6. A couple days ago

Glad you remembered! And I'm not attacking O'Malley, it is a real question of curiosity. Because, frankly, his expected chance at being the nominee is hovering around 1%.

And the likely voter polls, which are predictive as I mentioned in the post you're citing, have shown him with very little support. So, he isn't winning. He knows he isn't winning, of that I'm certain. So what is his drive at this point... Platform, a job or to play backup if someone drops out?

[MaggieD]

7. He wasn't even the second choice among enough to be viable

So you know. Data. Math.

[Scootaloo]

5. Because a second place in an early primary state could throw some serious wind in his sails

If he can't catch that by Nevada, he'll probably drop out.

[Godhumor]

9. Good point. He might be throwing everything into the momentum gambit

But, yeah, I agree that he is penalty an early casualty when voting starts.

[Kalidurga]

8. He is different enough that I have a preference to Bernie.

He is polished, well spoken, probably has more ideas on how to combat climate change, not quite as good ideas as Bernie on how to make the economy work for most people, he can play the guitar and sing, and I suspect he doesn't have a mean bone in his body.

Bernie is not polished, he speaks well enough but there is more fire than panache, he understands the implications of global warming very well but I haven't heard his ideas on what to do about it, he knows what needs to be done with the economy better than all the candidates combined, he has a good rhythmic voice but I won't run out to buy the album, I think he might have one mean bone in his body.

I want him to stay in the race as long as possible. I think it is good to have a couple people running to compare and contrast.

[slipslidingaway]

10. Who is he? This Dem Primary is one of the worst, many people

who not engaged in politics only know the Clinton name.

Some may have heard of Sanders, but O'Malley, who is he.

What a joke, love how we want to spread democracy to other nations by overthrowing their leaders, while the rich by a seat in our government.

[senz]

11. I'm glad he's there.

A couple of years ago when talk of 2016 was getting started, I was hoping Elizabeth Warren would run or some new Democrats would gain prominence to challenge Hillary (who had been laser beam focused on the presidency since shortly after she and Bill left the WH). O'Malley occasionally showed up on the Sunday political shows sounding progressive and articulate and I hoped back then that he would run.

Then Bernie, whom I had been listening to every week on Thom Hartmann, started talking about running, and I knew I'd back him. He is who he is, clear-eyed and real, and I believe he's very much up to the job.

But I never lost my liking for O'Malley. I doubt he is as clear and focused as Bernie on what needs to change in this country, but he seems reasonably aware, certainly far more aware than Hillary. If anything were to happen to Bernie, I could vote with a clean conscience for O'Malley. So I hope he stays in. Yes, as a backup.

Someone upthread said they thought he hasn't a mean bone in his body but that Bernie may have one. I think I'd reverse that.

It would make me puke if the Hillary campaign wanted to weed out all of her competitors.

[Kentonio]

15. I did laugh quite hysterically

When I saw a Hillary supporter try and claim a few days ago that Hillary had had to be talked into running this time.

[elleng]

12. THIS, SUBSTANCE, Acts, NOT TALK.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251883179

[bigtree]

14. he hoping for an upset in Iowa

...or a finish which beats expectations in order to attract more support and momentum for later contests.

O'Malley's more of an 'outsider' than the other two who have been D.C. political fixtures for decades. He 'separates' himself from the other two with actual accomplishments on the progressive issues he's campaigning on to buttress his words. More than just talk, he brings a record of action to this race which the other two can't match.

Again, it's amazing to me that a lifetime legislator in Congress can be claimed by his supporters to be an 'outsider.'

[Agschmid]

16. Iowa is all about ground game, and having strong precinct captains.

I don't see him pulling off second but I could be wrong.

[askew]

18. O'Malley's gotten a lot of key endorsements in Iowa from county chairs and state legislators

who do a lot of the GOTV operations. They will be key in deciding the caucus. Hillary has the top elected officials but they didn't help her in 2008 and I don't think they will be able to deliver a huge win for her in 2016.

Interestingly enough, there was another youth caucus contest in the past week and O'Malley won it. His team is smaller, but after seeing them up close at multiple Iowa events with Bernie and Hillary's team, I think O'Malley is going to finish much better than expected.

He's also done 3x as many events in Iowa than Hillary. He's visiting a lot of the counties that don't get a lot of attention. That is what Santorum did in 2012 and Edwards did in 2004 and 2008. I expect that to pay off for him.

[elleng]

20. Really, askew, another Youth Caucus that he WON???!!!

[askew]

27. Yep. His team is leaving no stone unturned in Iowa.

A couple of the Iowa bloggers who follow all the Dem candidates keep saying how impressed they are with his team and how hard they are working. O'Malley is also drawing bigger crowds at his retail events which is good news.

[joshcryer]

23. Interesting, you got some links about this?

I'm not doubting you, I want to read about these county chair and state legislator endorsements.

If there's anything us Deaniacs don't underestimate it's the ground game.

Not been paying that much attention to MOM, will have to delve further.

[askew]

26. No problem.

Here is the link - https://martinomalley.com/iowa/28-new-endorsements-and-locks-polk-county-democratic-chair/

NOV 17 | IOWA
28 NEW ENDORSEMENTS AND LOCKS POLK COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CHAIR
Des Moines – Today, following a breakout performance by Governor O’Malley at the Iowa Democratic Debate, O’Malley for Iowa announced 28 new endorsements, earning the support of five more county chairs including Polk County Democratic Party Chair Tom Henderson.

Today’s announcement includes five more elected officials, and four more college Democratic club leaders, and rounds out O’Malley’s backing from the majority of Democratic leaders in Polk County. With Henderson’s endorsement, O’Malley has now received banking for the heads of the Polk County Democratic Party, the South Side Des Moines Democrats, the East Side Des Moines Democrats, the Central Iowa Democrats, and Ankeny Area Democrats.

In the last four months, O’Malley has won the endorsement of over 81 public officials, community leaders and Democratic activists who support his record of actions not words, and laud O’Malley’s leadership based on principles, not polls.

Today, these Iowa leaders officially endorsed Martin O’Malley for President of the United States:

Tom Henderson, Polk County Chair
Gary Gelner, Hancock County Chair
Brian Gerjets, Cherokee County Chair
Julie Geopfert, Webster County Chair
Beth Vogt, Crawford County Chair
Kathy Kerns, Cass County Vice Chair
Kathy Geronzin, Jackson County Vice Chair
Nevon Conrad, Fort Dodge City Council Member
Pat Gill, Woodbury County Auditor
Perla Alarcón-Flory, Sioux City School Board Member
Tina Patterson, Vice President of Lin-Mar Board of Education
Matthew Goodman, Ames City Councilman
John Klaus, Former Ames City Attorney
Bob Leonard, President, Wartburg College Democrats
Lexi Fairbanks, President Young Democrats Morningside College
James Farnan, Vice President Young Dems Morningside College
Donald Weatherwax III, Linn County Central Committee Member
Clark Reike, Linn County Central Committee Member
Drew Kloetzer, Former Hardin County Chair
Patricia Malinee, Recording Secretary, Scott County Democrats
Highland Nichols, Former Clinton County Chair
Karen Havlicek, Woodbury County Dems
Steve Gorman, candidate for State Representative
Alba Perez, Latino community activist
Cheri Doane, Marion County activist
Marilee Monroe, Former Floyd County Recorder and Former President of Iowa State Association of Counties
Tracy Hatfield, Muscatine County Activist
Don Smith, Former Poweshiek County Chair

Polk County is where Des Moines is located so getting the chair's endorsement is a big deal.

More Iowa endorsements:

Kevin Kinney, State Senator
Bruce Bearinger, State Representative
Bruce Hunter, State Representative
Peggy Sherrets, Mayor of Oelwein
Dan Howard, Mayor of Maynard
Sharon Acuff, Pilot Mound City Councilwoman
Rick Howard, Maynard City Council Member
Art Behn, Dallas County Chair
Nancy Bobo, Polk County Activist
Ken Kahl, Crawford County Vice Chair
Sara Riley, Linn County Activist
Nancy Riley, Linn County Activist
Peter Riley, Linn County Activist
Larry Peterson, Former Crawford County Chair
Morgan Brittain, Former President of the College and Young Democrats of Iowa
Bob Beisch, Former Wapello County Chair
Jan Evans, Marion County Central Committee Member
Gregory Guelcher, Woodbury County Vice Chair
Cheryl Scherr, Marion County Vice Chair
Tom Corrieri, Story County Central Committee Treasurer
Richard Machacek, DNC superdelegate for Obama in ’08; Fmr Buchanan County Dems Chair
Kevin Powell, Starmont Community School District Board Member
Larry Stewart, Former President Charles City Chamber of Commerce
Karl Knock, Union County Activist
Sharon Holle, Scott County Activist
Rob Hubler, Former Iowa Congressional Candidate and Fairfield County Activist

He also has 41 more endorsements and picked up a couple more in the past few days. O'Malley has a lot of goodwill in Iowa due to his working his ass off doing events all over the state to try to help Dems up and down the ticket in 2014. He also is doing significantly more events in Iowa than Hillary and Bernie which is earning goodwill as well. All of this should payoff in the caucus, I hope.


I was a Deaniac who went to Iowa to do GOTV and I have to say that O'Malley's team is much more organized. I could tell Dean was going to lose after doing work with them in Iowa.

[JustAnotherGen]

30. Thanks for the list

I think he's going to do far better than folks expect him to.

[askew]

32. I think so too.

[joshcryer]

34. Oh man, Iowa is about to get interesting as hell.

Thanks for posting the link.

I was in the bubble with Dean and was completely taken aback (as were a lot of us, of course). Ever since then I never underestimated the ground game (it's one reason I pegged Obama as winning in 2008 fairly early, he simply had the better ground game).

[askew]

35. Yeah, I had no idea until I went down to Iowa and saw the chaos of the Dean organization.

Part of the problem was so many people from out of state volunteering for him. It just isn't as effective as having Iowans doing the GOTV efforts. O'Malley has excelled with getting locals involved in this campaign. I'd be curious what is happening with the other candidates. My uncle in Iowa has gotten a couple of calls from Hillary's team asking what his first, second and third choices were for the caucus and weren't happy to find out Hillary was #3. I haven't heard anything about the Bernie organization on the ground, but I am not local.

[askew]

17. Because he is the best candidate in the race on policy after policy.

He's putting out more detailed policy platforms than Hillary and Bernie combined. His progressive stand on gun control, refugee issues and immigration issues has already moved Bernie to the left on all 3 issues. Bernie put out an immigration platform recently that cribs about 80% from O'Malley's platform. O'Malley's platform was called the most progressive ever released by a presidential candidate as was his criminal justice reform platform.

His climate change platform remains the gold standard. He pushed hard enough for Hillary to actually be forced to release 1/3 of a plan and that is more than she has done on most issues. By putting out such aggressive, detailed and progressive platforms, he is moving the entire conversation to the left.

Even polling in single digits, he is moving the candidates and the issues that the media is talking about. Immigration and refugee issues would never have gotten this much play in the primary if it wasn't for O'Malley relentlessly pushing on these efforts.

And if it wasn't for O'Malley, there would be very little retail politics in Iowa on the Dem side and the Republicans would be dominating that state's news. And that would not be good for us come November 2016.

[elleng]

21. GREAT analysis, askew!

[askew]

24. Thanks!

[JustAnotherGen]

29. Excellent askew

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. He is hoping for a spark...

I look at elections as proxies for efficient markets. The elections will determine who goes on and who doesn't and that refers to all candidates.

[firebrand80]

22. He's a really good candidate

He's probably suffering from bad luck with timing more than anything.

No real reason to get out now, as long as he isn't going over budget.

[EndElectoral]

25. I find him refreshing in the debates and I'm glad he's still in the race.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. Why not?

Granted, his chances of suddenly surging to the top are pretty small, but he's a good, smart guy with useful things to say and I'm glad he's saying them. And it's also good that there are at least a couple of candidates who aren't willing to just stand down and anoint Hillary.

[aikoaiko]

31. Building name recognition and forming national identity in debates for another run.

[askew]

33. There is also the ongoing issue of Hillary's email server with open investigations in the Senate,

IG and FBI. Now, it is unlikely anything comes of it, but you never know and it is good to have a back-up just in case.