2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAnother prediction milestone reached for Hillary. Odds of being President now at 60%
All other candidates, Democratic and Republican add up to 40%, obviously.
Anyway, predictive markets can change very quick, and she could be down to her more stable 56% or 57% at any time. But right here, right now, she is at 60%.
Breakdown
Chance at nomination:
HRC - 93%
BS - 6%
MOM - 1%
Chance at presidency:
HRC - 60%
Rubio - 17%
Trump - 8%
Cruz - 6%
Bush - 4%
Christie - 3%
BS - 2%
MOM - 0%
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president
oasis
(49,398 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)SunSeeker
(51,630 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts).... that college in Western Ill that predicted Obama's win "every single election for 40 years." They say Bernie is going to win. So please change his percentage to 100%. TIA.
Tortmaster
(382 posts)... Secretaries Clinton and Castro, I would have that at 99%. Even Rubio and Zombie Reagan with a gun in his cold dead hands couldn't beat that ticket.
KMOD
(7,906 posts)#HillYes
blackspade
(10,056 posts)a predictable
Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)Obama was at 12% chance of becoming the nominee on December 8. Still beliw 50% till after Super Tuesday.
Predictwise has such a great track record...
http://gawker.com/5012749/the-visual-history-of-the-longest-primaries-ever