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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:25 AM Dec 2015

Another prediction milestone reached for Hillary. Odds of being President now at 60%

All other candidates, Democratic and Republican add up to 40%, obviously.

Anyway, predictive markets can change very quick, and she could be down to her more stable 56% or 57% at any time. But right here, right now, she is at 60%.

Breakdown

Chance at nomination:

HRC - 93%
BS - 6%
MOM - 1%

Chance at presidency:

HRC - 60%
Rubio - 17%
Trump - 8%
Cruz - 6%
Bush - 4%
Christie - 3%
BS - 2%
MOM - 0%

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Another prediction milestone reached for Hillary. Odds of being President now at 60% (Original Post) Godhumor Dec 2015 OP
Great. I hereby declare this prediction to be free of horrendous flaws. oasis Dec 2015 #1
NOT GOOD ENOUGH!!! JaneyVee Dec 2015 #2
Always room for improvement, for sure n/t Godhumor Dec 2015 #3
LOL! MaggieD Dec 2015 #4
Good one, JaneyVee. SunSeeker Dec 2015 #10
I think you're overlooking MaggieD Dec 2015 #5
If, as I suspect, it is a dream team of ... Tortmaster Dec 2015 #6
I think she's got this. KMOD Dec 2015 #7
A market based predictive model..... blackspade Dec 2015 #8
2007 Flying Squirrel Dec 2015 #9
 

MaggieD

(7,393 posts)
5. I think you're overlooking
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 01:54 AM
Dec 2015

.... that college in Western Ill that predicted Obama's win "every single election for 40 years." They say Bernie is going to win. So please change his percentage to 100%. TIA.

Tortmaster

(382 posts)
6. If, as I suspect, it is a dream team of ...
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 02:46 AM
Dec 2015

... Secretaries Clinton and Castro, I would have that at 99%. Even Rubio and Zombie Reagan with a gun in his cold dead hands couldn't beat that ticket.

 

Flying Squirrel

(3,041 posts)
9. 2007
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 03:13 AM
Dec 2015


Obama was at 12% chance of becoming the nominee on December 8. Still beliw 50% till after Super Tuesday.

Predictwise has such a great track record...

http://gawker.com/5012749/the-visual-history-of-the-longest-primaries-ever

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