Interesting - NATE SILVER "Looks like our model has now fully priced in Obama's bounce -- he actual

[NRaleighLiberal]

from a tweet feed on Nate's NYT blog -
NATE SILVER
Looks like our model has now fully priced in Obama's bounce -- he actually declined slightly in our forecast tonight.

I did note that - Nov 6 forecast has percentage down a tad to 79.3% with 314 Electoral votes - but, interesting to note that the Now Cast is up to 86.1%, with 310 EVs.

Highest I've seen the Now Cast total.

So I suspect that may be where the post DNC bounce takes things. Hoping now things hold steadily here until the debates...when the bounce to the finish line should occur.

[longship]

1. I like Nate Silver, but I am still skeptical.

He tries to do the right thing and analyze the polls and other data. But we are still trying to predict an inherently chaotic system, public opinion.

It sure does seem, even from cursory inspection -- maybe, especially because of mere cursory inspection -- that Obama is wildly ahead. I see this, too. As do many here at DU.

But anybody claiming to have the inside track on this election probably doesn't anymore than the Tootsie Frootsie Ice Cream guy has it at the race track.

They are both selling the same Tootsie Frootsie.

What really cracks me up are the people with these historic arguments. No incumbent president with situation <X> has ever lost. Well, they are undoubtedly correct, until the first one does.

The only way to get President Barack Obama back to the White House for four more years is to work our tails off. Ignore the polls, they are moonshine. Ignore the pundits, they are plunged into delusional wonkery -- on both sides.

Winning elections is, and has always been, about getting people to the polls. There is no other metric as important, no matter what anybody says.

That's the secret. Now everybody knows. Thank goodness.

[davidpdx]

2. So how much was the bounce?