"Obama Soars To A Huge Lead Over Romney In A New CNN Poll"

[applegrove]

Obama Soars To A Huge Lead Over Romney In A New CNN Poll

by Brett LoGiurato at Business Insider

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/cnn-poll-obama-romney-convention-bump-bounce-dnc-democratic-clinton-2012-9#ixzz268AgDMwk

"SNIP..............................................

President Obama has pulled to a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new CNN poll taken in the aftermath of the party conventions, reflecting the Democratic National Convention bump that's being seen across numerous polls.

The CNN/ORC survey shows Obama with a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over Romney among likely voters, a six-point bump from the last CNN poll released during the DNC.

The Hill's Christian Heinze points out the weird internal in the poll: Romney actually beats Obama by 14 points among Independents. But the reason likely is that CNN sampled almost no registered Independents. CNN surveyed 441 Democrats and 397 Republicans in its registered voters sample, leaving only 37 registered Independents possible in its total sample.

With that said, here are the key points from the poll:

..............................................SNIP"

[bigdarryl]

1. This is the third poll I've seen with Romney up among Independents

That doesn't bolt well for us Obama has got to get that number down.15 poi
T seems a little excessive in my opinion

[Sanity Claws]

8. "bolt well?"

Did you mean "bode well?"

If not, I don't know what you are saying.

Also what is "15 poi T?"

[TroyD]

2. 'Romney actually beats Obama by 14 points among Independents.'

Regardless of the reason, this is disturbing.

Romney should not even be a little bit ahead with Independents.

What is wrong with them?

[applegrove]

3. What matters is the swing states. Perhaps Romney is spending more

on ads outside the swing states than Obama?

[gkhouston]

4. How many Republicans are calling themselves "Independents" these days? n/t

[longship]

5. I have known many professed independents.

They all, almost universally, voted straight Republican. It is just yet another media delusion.

Many call themselves libertarians. But they are still just Republics.

[NYC Liberal]

10. I noticed a lot of it happening toward the end of the Bush years, around 2006-2008,

as his approval tanked into the teens. People who had voted straight Republican down the line in every election for decades started calling themselves "independents" and pretending they'd never "really" supported Bush (even though they voted for him twice). My favorite, though, was when Republican candidates tried to get their party listed as "GOP" instead of "Republican" on ballots so people wouldn't have that visceral reaction to that party name after 8 years of destruction.

[phleshdef]

6. No it isn't. 4% of the total polled in that poll were independents.

Thats not a sample you can trust to tell you anything useful at all.

[magical thyme]

9. too few data points to be statistically meaningful

You need a minimum of 60 data points for meaningful statistical data. And 60 still doesn't provide a very reliable number. More like thousands.

37 could very easily just reflect a string of conservative independents in their polling.

Remember, too, that they're talking percentages, not votes. The individual votes from a sample that small would be 5.

Here is another link off that article: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/cnn-obama-52-romney-46.html

"Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time."

Using those percentages, it's Obama 15 votes versus Romney 20 votes, with 2 votes not accounted for. And their interpretation is wrong for the same reasons stated above. It is way too small a sampling to be statistically meaningful in any way.

[CTyankee]

11. They are really Republicans, that's why. They just call themelves Independents.

I think it a Republican strategy to make it sound like the Republican brand has been "tested" in the court of public opinion and "chosen" like a brand of cereal over the Democratic brand by independent minded voters. I'm certain it has been planned this way...

[applegrove]

12. I totally concur that the gop will be doing almost anything to play with

the electorate's perceptions this election season.

[Ford_Prefect]

7. The Bias is clear in the "Independants" response numbers.

A valid response base would need to be at least 1/2 the number of either of the other response groups.

This is "result" is ludicrous. ORC should know better, but then maybe that is what they were paid to find by CNN/Fox-Lite.