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Univ. of Iowa Electronic Markets: Obama win now pegged at 68%
After two weeks of political party conventioneering, traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) believe President Barack Obama has a significantly higher likelihood of winning the popular vote on Election Day.
As of Monday morning, a contract for Obama was selling for 68 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All market, which means traders believe there’s a 68 percent probability that Obama will win the popular vote. He was selling for 55 cents on Aug. 27, the day the Republicans convened in Tampa, which means traders believe he has a 23 percent higher probability of winning the popular vote than he did two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, a contract for Mitt Romney was selling for 32 cents Monday morning, down 32 percent from the 47.1 cents he was selling for at the start of the two week convention period.
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/story.cfm?ID=2925
As of Monday morning, a contract for Obama was selling for 68 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All market, which means traders believe there’s a 68 percent probability that Obama will win the popular vote. He was selling for 55 cents on Aug. 27, the day the Republicans convened in Tampa, which means traders believe he has a 23 percent higher probability of winning the popular vote than he did two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, a contract for Mitt Romney was selling for 32 cents Monday morning, down 32 percent from the 47.1 cents he was selling for at the start of the two week convention period.
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/story.cfm?ID=2925