Gravis Marketing - New Polls - *Caution Advised*

[TroyD]

A few people got mad last week when a poll from Gravis Marketing was released, but since these numbers just came out today, we need to be aware of what they say in order to know what the Republicans are doing.

Since this firm is Republican-leaning, I have indicated as such in the Thread Title!!! The Ohio numbers are actually very close to PPP and are not too bad. It's the Virginia numbers that are questionable.

OHIO (Obama +4)

Obama - 47

Romney - 43

OHIO - SENATE (Brown +6)

Brown - 48

Mandel - 42

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_OH_0911.pdf

-----

VIRGINIA (Romney +5)

Romney - 49

Obama - 44

VIRGINIA - SENATE (Allen +5)

Allen - 48

Kaine - 43

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_VA_0911.pdf

[Thrill]

1. Hasn't their polls already been debunked as

RW Pollsters?

[TroyD]

2. Yes. . .

I just said that in my opening post. Did you read it?

[TroyD]

3. Their OHIO poll is actually good news

Their previous poll showed Romney +3, so for Obama to be +4 is a change of 7 points.

Their previous poll showed Brown & Mandel Tied, so for Brown to be +6 is a change of 6 points.

This poll, even if it is from a Republican pollster, backs up the PPP poll (which is being called fake by the RW) because it shows a shift to Obama & Brown in OHIO.

[FrenchieCat]

4. we need to be aware of what they say in order to know what the Republicans are doing. .....

You certainly are "into" polls, aren't you?

I'm just curious as to why this overarching fascination with polls from wherever you can get them?
What do they tell you that compels to post as many as you can find?
And what does it tell us about what Republicans are doing (like cheating and trying to manipulate the populace),
that we don't already know?

[TroyD]

5. Yes, I'm into polls

I think all of us are on this board, as are the political campaigns, the journalists, pollsters & much of the public. Your point? Ask Nate Silver if he's into polls.

I just explained above that their OHIO poll looks accurate and seems to validate the PPP poll. Isn't that good news?

[FrenchieCat]

12. Polls are oftentime used to manipulate the populace.....

to inflate and deflate the moods of voters.
What is certain is that polls will go and down daily,
and depending on which ones are chosen to highlight,
can cause consternation or euphoria in one camp or the other.

What polls are not, much of the time, is reliable....
especially if their methodology or their margin of error is not also highlighted.

I personally would much rather hear what method of GOTV efforts folks will sign up for
in their respective states in order to affect these polls.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Why do you keep posting so-called polls from this discredited GOP marketing operation

I mean, truly. There's being a poll junkie, and there's being a fucking sucker, and you're tilting toward the latter of that. It is not Republican-leaning. It is a pure GOP front organization.

[TroyD]

7. I'm not going to respond to posts like yours in the future

1. This is only the 2nd time I've posted their polls

2. I even put 'Caution' in the thread title so that people like you wouldn't freak out, and yet you did anyway

3. My posting history proves I'm as anti-Republican as you can get

4. As I explained above, this poll actually helps bolster the other polls showing an Obama gain in OHIO

5. The media downplays the PPP polls by attacking them as a Democratic pollster, so when Republican pollsters show good news for Obama it's worthwhile discussing them

6. Other posters here agree that we need to look at all data out there to see how it is influencing the narrative

7. Nate Silver himself says all data must be analyzed, even if it may have a bias

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Like I said, tilting badly

[TroyD]

9. What's tilting?

If you don't want to read certain polls, you don't have to. But you can't decide for all of us what polls we look at.

Whether we like it or not, these polls are on RCP and are now entered into the overall average. *Nate Silver* also puts them on his website! Perhaps you should send your concerns to him? They're a reality we have to deal with. I've worked on many political campaigns, and we keep an eye on everything that is being published. It doesn't help to be asked about a poll by the media, and not know how to respond because you've had your eyes shut and not looked at it.

Now we now their latest numbers and will know what to say when articles come out about them.

And although the VIRGINIA poll is not good, the OHIO poll is. Let's focus on that.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. I don't know if you're on the up and up

or a straight out troll, or just a fucking dupe, but when you post Gravis as if it's legitimate and not a shitty GOP PR operation, I'm going to call it out, and when you soft sell it as "leaning" in some weird attempt to legitimize these cretins, I'm going to get on record in the thread that it is an out and out Rove front group.

[JoePhilly]

10. Does Nate Silver, or say RealClear Politics, include this pollster?

Perhaps this is the question to ask ... "which poll averaging sites include this pollster"??

I don't know ... Do you know?

[TroyD]

13. Yes - both RCP & Nate Silver include it

As I mentioned above.

As I also stated above, there's no need for the poster above to get so angry anyway. Their OHIO poll helps give credibility to the PPP poll (which has been attacked by the RW media).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[longship]

16. Your point #7 is important

In science, one is not allowed to throw out data. If you do, you're not going to get your paper published. Scientists are aware that all data is biased. Only by including it all do the biases have any chance of canceling out.

Ignoring data, for instance Rasmussen, biases your analysis because you still include putatively Democratic leaning polls.

Nate is correct. All data is important because it's all biased.

[TroyD]

17. Yes, as I tried to calmly say above

1. I mentioned in the original post that this is a pollster that is Republican-leaning (so there was no attempt to hide that)

2. Rational, calm people who work on political campaigns know that you need to keep an eye on both the good polls & bad polls

3. Whether we like it or not, the Gravis poll has become part of the RCP average and the Nate Silver 538 average and we need to know this

4. Although their Virginia poll is questionable, I posted their polls today because the media narrative today is that the PPP Ohio poll can't be trusted since it is from a Democratic firm, so the good news is this Republican pollster has numbers which are almost identical and will make it harder for people to insult the PPP poll

Thanks for your response.

[Blue Yorker]

23. Alcibiades should read past the title

A "f***** sucker" would not call the Virginia "questionable." If you read past the title, you would make more sense. It is possible that you did not even read the entire title, since TroyD advised caution. A sucker would not have been cautious.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

14. Brown +6? I hope that's true!!!!!! nt

[TroyD]

15. Brown is +8 in PPP

So we have 2 polls showing an average of a 7-point lead for Brown.

You will find the other poll for Brown that I posted earlier on the main page.

[DemsUnited]

18. Vote on PPP website for a Virginia poll this weekend!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

RealClearPolitics has already rolled this poll into its averages & I think Nate Silver wrote that he uses all of them although he attempts to normalize for house effect & bias. So a PPP Virginia poll next week may help the averages skewed by a suspect poll.

TroyD is right to (cautiously) point to these polls because they did get picked up at least by RCP which unfortunately does get referenced by the MSM.

[TroyD]

19. Yes, we need to get a credible poll for VIRGINIA

Perhaps it is possible that Romney is going up there. He and Ryan did hold their V.P. announcement there, and they have been camped out a lot in VA lately. I think they know how important the state is to Romney.

They've been bashing Obama in Virginia as being anti-military and in favor of huge defense cuts etc.

The whole V.P. campaign launch in Virginia was such a fraud to begin with because neither Romney nor Ryan have military experience (and Romney was basically hiding out in France during the Vietnam War) and yet they appeared on a battleship etc. in order to give the image of them as big military guys.

Total nonsense.

[thevoiceofreason]

20. 7 posts in the last couple of hours???

Not everything you read needs to get posted on Politics 2012.

[reflection]

21. Speaking of ridiculous polls

The new SurveyUSA poll, according to Nate Silver, shows 30% of African-Americans in NC voting for Romney.

[mvd]

22. That one was done with Civitas, another Repuke firm

Seems the Repuke pollsters are trying their best to minimize a clear bounce for Obama.

[reflection]

24. Was it? My bad.

Thanks for the correction.

[mvd]

25. That's fine. Don't worry about it

Survey USA is only as reliable as who they are working for.