Hot off the press Emerson University Nat'l Poll- HRC-65% SBS 26% MOM 2%_HRC-Best on foreign policy

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Boston (December 21, 2015): A
new poll six weeks out from the
Iowa Caucus identifies terrorism as
the most important issue at 22% and
that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
is seen as the best qualified
presidential candidate to handle US
Foreign Policy at 34% as compared
to 19% favoring Republican Businessman
Donald Trump. Clinton is
identified as the best candidate to
keep voters safe at 30%, with Trump in second place at 22%.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf

[Blue_Adept]

1. Harrumph

[img][/img]

[Codeine]

4. .

Excellent!!

[workinclasszero]

24. Haha

[MoonRiver]

2. Is this post-debate?

Very impressive numbers!

[riversedge]

3. Dec 17 Through Sun Dec 20--we have the Force....

Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Iowa Starting Line ‏@IAStartingLine Dec 19

I mean, the Hillary campaign has already shown their allegiance to Star Wars light sabers #MayTheForceBeWithYou

[ismnotwasm]

10. That is way cool!

[riversedge]

11. I think it was from the Jefferson Iowa Dinner where all

3 Dems spoke--each part of audience had their supporters and Hillary's group showed up with the blue lights.

[Alfresco]

5. Good news for Hillary. She's going to make a damn fine President.

Happy Holidays

[Mass]

6. Frightening poll, if Trump is second after Clinton and not that far from her. This country is crazy.

[Iliyah]

7. Agreed

K & R for the thread!

[randys1]

27. The day Obama was first elected as Prez, a large number of vicious racists, including sitting

House and Senate members as well as TENS of MILLIONS of Americans became mobilized and organized and wanted to make one point and one point ONLY

A Black man as president, let alone a Democrat with the name Barack Hussein Obama is simply not acceptable.

That if destroying America is what they need to do to destroy him, so be it.

This now carries over to Hillary.

Now, it remains to be seen how they feel about Bernie but regardless of which candidate we pick, they are gonna work to destroy them.

They dont share well, those rightys.

[SunSeeker]

8. K & R

[ismnotwasm]

9. How Sweet it is...

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[Persondem]

15. Apologies for going off topic but you might appreciate this ....

[ismnotwasm]

19. LOL!

So stealing that!

[Alfresco]

16. Christened “The Great One” by Orson Welles

[NurseJackie]

12. Of course she is! :-) <3

[Alfresco]

13. Beeeeuuutiful !!!

[Persondem]

14. Yes!!! best poll yet. Thank you for posting K & R nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Thank you for posting the PPP Poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251933289

[MoonRiver]

20. Thank you for linking the PPP poll!

I hadn't seen it before.

[Mass]

21. Terrible poll, not because of her numbers but because, after her, Trump is the second person people

trust on security.

It is extremely frightening and we should be VERY concerned. That Trump gets 22 % of people thinking he is the best to keep us safe and that n3 is Cruz and then Rubio is very frightening for what it tells us for the general election.

[NCTraveler]

18. .

[riversedge]

22. that is one of my all time favorities.--I love the beat and fits Hillary's campaign--a steady

rollin rollin......

[workinclasszero]

23. But but Bernie just won all the online

Click bait polls DSB!

Go Hillary!

[coyote]

25. This poll is so skewed it's worthless

65% of the poll participants are over 50 years old. This does not even come close to past presidential election demographics.

[upaloopa]

26. You still don't understand statistical sampling

[JonLeibowitz]

29. Perhaps I don't either -- can you please educate me?

This poll has 42.6% of poll respondents over the age of 65. Do you expect that number to be close to primary participation rates?

[Jarqui]

31. +1

[upaloopa]

34. Here is how it works

There is a population of which a random selection is made meaning everyone in the population has the same chance of being selected.

Within a sampling error what is true about the sample is true about the population.

It is a snapshot in time of how people feel when asked.

The population was probably "voters" that means anyone of any age could be selected.

[JonLeibowitz]

35. Ok, but to follow up on my question

If the random selection is made and doesn't represent the voter turnout demographics, then doesn't the poll necessarily have a tracking error to "reality" to whatever extent the poll skews from demographic reality?

All that is a way of saying, yes, perhaps they randomly called people and this is the demographic breakdown they achieved, but 42.6% is almost certainly not going to be the number that turn up at the polls. Right?

At least, that isn't what happened in 2012 and 2008.

edit: The point of my post is that voters younger than 65 have markedly different preferences in the primary.

[workinclasszero]

28. Oh cool

Thats the age group that actually get off the couch and goes to vote in the REAL election!

[JonLeibowitz]

30. Without voters younger than 44 we would have President Romney right now.

From my generation to yours, you are very welcome. We got off the couch and voted, enough to elect Obama.

[coyote]

32. And it was the millennials who actually carrried the last election to

Obama and not Hillary.

[JonLeibowitz]

33. Great minds think alike (see above).

[workinclasszero]

36. Sure

[restorefreedom]

37. nice pics, however,

mom at 2? what the hell?

[Forrage]

38. Iowa polls are more important than national ones

Because Sanders may gain momentum nationally if he continues to get closer and closer in Iowa.
Remember, Sanders will no lose NH. so Iowa would almost certainly give him the first two states.