2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"In blockbuster poll, Sanders destroys Trump by 13 points" (HRC beats Trump by 7)
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both Hillary Clinton and Sanders would defeat Trump by landslide margins. In the new Quinnipiac poll, Clinton would defeat Trump by 7 percentage points, which is itself impressive and would qualify as a landslide, while the Sanders lead of 13 points would bring a landslide of epic proportions.
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)but even though it's a new poll today, this particular link was arguably an opinion piece, and I didn't want to risk it.
I think "electability" might be a good strategy for Sanders to pursue... an interesting turnaround from what people were saying early on...
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...he's doing to continue to do better in these match-up polls.
He's all ready kicking butt. But just wait, after he wins Iowa and NH, the nation will be taking a new look at Bernie Sanders.
I've seen the enthusiasm and support base that Sanders has grown in Iowa. It's amazing. People love his message.
As he campaigns from state to state, he will continue to spread his revolutionary message and earn the support of the American people--one state at a time.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Happenstance24
(193 posts)He's not really being attacked by anyone yet. Datagate was the first bad thing said about him in months. Considering he's been handled with kid gloves, Bernie should be wiping out everyone on the RNC side at this point. Get real folks.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)and in fact either candidate (HRC or BS) will get attacked over all kinds of things. But it would still be hard for the opposition to turn as many non-Dems against BS as are already against HRC. I think it is virtually impossible for the Republicans to do to Sanders in a matter of months as much damage as they have done to Clinton in 20+ years. The dislike many non-Dems have for HRC is visceral, deep-seated and long-lasting in a way that goes beyond what I think could be created in a single brief campaign. This is why he is more electable, and why polls show him already beating, not just Trump, but all the significant Repub opposition by as much or more than HRC does, even though he is not yet nearly as well known.
It will be harder for HRC than it would be for Sanders to increase her appeal in the general. It's much easier to appeal to someone who hasn't made up their mind about you than it is to appeal to someone who has already decided they don't like you, and HRC already has 55% unfavorables, compared to Sanders' 31. (Both of them have 44% favorable.) Even if those who don't have a firm opinion about Sanders break 3 to 1 against him, he still ends up with under 50% unfavorable (compared to HRC's 55% majority). Even if they ALL break against him (a ridiculous scenario), he still ends up with as many favorables as HRC. So he has a lot of room to broaden his support, she doesn't. Unlike Sanders, HRC has to count on a good number on voters liking the Republican candidate even less than they like her. (Luckily, the Republican candidates are cooperating in that effort.)
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)+1
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)I believe this as well though I couldn't have said it as articulately as you have. I believe HRC in the GE would invigorate the republican base like nothing or nobody else ever could, both at the polls and in the media. It would be a bloodbath.
Happenstance24
(193 posts)on how Bernie handles the garbage thrown at him. We know how Hillary handles in and she thrives. Could Bernie do the same? Possibly, but I'd feel a whole lot more assured if I'd seen him do it. The only thing we have to judge him by is datagate and he didn't really handle that well. He "mostly false"d his way through what happened and is now suing the party. I totally get the DWS dislike but Bernie signed up for these debates and flipped to the DNC to sponge off their resources so he could run in the first place. He knew what he was signing up for.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I hope your month stay has been pleasant!
Happenstance24
(193 posts)Been lurking forever and finally just registered and came aboard. Thanks for the warm and fuzzies.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)negatives would go through the ceiling.But they stay very quiet about Sanders and there's a reason for that.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)assuming you mean your post up thread. Here's what would happen if Sanders won the election,they wouldn't settle for Bernies explanation that his democratic socialism is akin to Denmark,they would turn him into the second coming of Hugo Chavez and point to the clusterfuck that is Venezuela,and enough people would buy the scare tactics to sink his campaign.They'd rip his personal past to shreds including riffing on his Russian honeymoon over and over again. It's politically naive to think they wouldn't love to run against someone like Bernie Sanders in the General,it would be their dream come true and we would lose that election by massive numbers.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)But they will similarly toss tons of stuff at Clinton. All the old stuff, plus the stuff she has never had to deal with in an election before.. They will tie her as sec'y of state to the rise of Isis under the Obama administration's watch. And the email server. Foreign contributions to the Clinton foundation. We both know the drill.
And sure, some people will be scared at the word "socialism" -- but you know, most of the people who fall for that are never going to vote for Sanders OR Clinton. I don't care about losing votes we never had a prayer of getting anyway.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)to get much more out of it.Mark my words,they'll slay Sanders.And no,it won't just be people who wouldn't vote for him anyway,it will people who know very little about Sanders who will be swayed and that's a lot of people.Why do you think they're staying silent about Sanders?
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)But they still have new stuff to toss at her for this campaign, as I mentioned. i.e. things that she's never had to respond to in an election before.
Regardless, those who already like Clinton will still like her. Those who already dislike her will still dislike her. There aren't too many left who are persuadable. The problem is that the majority of non-Dems already dislike her. Based on their current numbers, I think it will be impossible to get as many people to dislike Sanders as already dislike Clinton.
I still think Clinton would likely win the election, because she should benefit by having an awful Republican to run against, meaning that even some people who don't particularly like her will still vote for her. But as evidenced by the OP, Sanders should win more easily, and win by more. He would be the "safer" bet for November, and the one with the greater potential for House and Senate coattails. He is likely the stronger, more electable, bigger turnout choice for November. Unfortunately, I don't think he's likely to get the Dem nomination. So we'll have to count on some number of people voting for Hillary because they decide that the Republican alternative is "even worse."
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)without animosity.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)nxylas
(6,440 posts)Calling the Democratic candidate a socialist has been Republican SOP for decades. Obama is a socialist. Both Clintons are socialists. How effective do you think that yelling "No, but this guy really, really is a socialist" is going to be?
artislife
(9,497 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)I'll say it again...Because thinking is good and not everyone has a nose ring and can be led around...
... The operative word is "thinking".
The argument for Democratic Socialism is one that Trump can only attempt to blow farts on (since he's that crude in his attempt to gain popularity).
The real MESSAGE of what the Democratic Party had begun to visualize, under JFK for evolution and what FDR would have continued to do with the second Bill of Rights, had he also lived long enough, WILL BE DELIVERED.
The only people who are scared to death of THIS MESSAGE are the 1% who are far removed from the 99%.
Who's afraid of Bernie Sanders? Those who are led around by their noses, fully responsive in a pavlovian way to the One Percent.
The political revolution won't be embossed in a gold invitation to the American public, but they already capably recognize it, supported by these polls over and over again.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)SandersDem
(592 posts)That the Third Way no longer works, if it ever really did! This is one of the reasons we have to take our Party back.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)take back our government from the OLIGARCH! They need their @sses handed to them in a loud and clear message from WE THE PEOPLE.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)an actual movement would have begun, and millions of young people would be engaged in the process and the party.
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Thanks for the thread, thesquanderer.