2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton
Hot off the presses or something like that.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/index.html
"Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton maintains a commanding, though slightly smaller, lead in a new CNN/ORC poll, boosted by broader support in the days after the latest debate between the remaining three Democratic presidential candidates.
Overall, Clinton tops Sanders among registered voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents 50% to 34%.
But those overall results mask a shift back toward Clinton following the Democratic debate on Saturday night. In interviews conducted before the debate, Sanders ran closer to Clinton, with 37% support to Clinton's 45%. Among those interviewed after the debate, Clinton's lead grew to 60% vs. Sanders' 27%."
thereismore
(13,326 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)That her polling numbers go down a little and Bernie's go up.
But that probably wasn't a "scientific" poll.
msrizzo
(796 posts)Bernie's numbers did go up before the debate and the data theft/breach. But then they went down quite a bit but I'm sure there's no connection. Probably the poll was way more scientific before the debate though. I guess that could happen.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)Proserpina
(2,352 posts)smiley
(1,432 posts)whatever they say becomes reality.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)We have what looks like a landline, but it is really Skype. I bet a lot of people have that. People who want to use long distance without paying too much for it have the arrangement we have. And we aren't millennials by any means. So who are they polling?
pa28
(6,145 posts)Without that I would have been left to believe that Clinton's shrinking lead meant that Bernie was catching up or something crazy like that.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)funny how that happens.
bowens43
(16,064 posts)oops sorry these are from 2008...it's going to be de javu all over again.....
CBS/NYT Poll January 912, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 27%
ABC/Washington Post January 912, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 37%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll January 910, 2008 Hillary Clinton 49%, Barack Obama 36%
CBS News/New York Times January 31 February 2, 2008 Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 41%, undecided 14% *
USA Today/Gallup January 30 February 2, 2008 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 44% *
ABC/Washington Post January 30 February 1, 2008 Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 43%
USA Today/Gallup Poll January 2527, 2008 Hillary Clinton 44%, Barack Obama 33%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal January 2022, 2008 Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 32%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg January 1822, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 33%
Diageo/Hotline Poll January 1012, 2008 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 35%
CBS/NYT Poll January 912, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 27%
ABC/Washington Post January 912, 2008 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 37%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll January 910, 2008 Hillary Clinton 49%, Barack Obama 36%
USA Today/Gallup Poll January 46, 2008 Hillary Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 33%
Rasmussen Reports January 36, 2008 Hillary Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29%
Rasmussen Reports Poll December 1720, 2007 Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 27%
Reuters/Zogby/American Research Group December 1214, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40% Barack Obama 28%
Diageo/Hotline Poll December 1014, 2007 Hillary Clinton 35%, Barack Obama 30%
Rasmussen Reports Poll December 912, 2007 Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 28%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll December 69, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 30%
Rasmussen Reports Poll December 69, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 27%
Rasmussen Reports Poll December 36, 2007 Hillary Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 26%
Rasmussen Reports Poll Nov 30 Dec 3, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 24%
USA Today/Gallup Poll Nov 30 Dec 2, 2007 Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 24%
Rasmussen Reports Poll Nov 30 Dec 3, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 24%
USA Today/Gallup Poll Nov 30 Dec 2, 2007 Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 24%
Rasmussen Reports Poll Nov 1619, 2007 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 23%
Reuters/Zogby/American Research Group Poll Nov 1417, 2007, Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 27%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll Nov 24, 2007 Hillary Clinton 44%, Barack Obama 25%
Newsweek Oct 31 Nov 1, 2007 Hillary Clinton 43%, Barack Obama 24%
Reuters/Zogby/American Research Group Oct 2427, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 24%
CBS News Oct 26, 2007 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 16%
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)riversedge
(70,243 posts)no where except for a big fall when it pops-and it will.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Robbins
(5,066 posts)of it's mouth.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Previous poll: Hillary 58, Bernie 30
Current poll: Hillary 50, Bernie 34
I don't know what those "interviews" were all about, but they sure don't reflect the actual poll numbers.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)I wonder if the op read the article or just the headline?
Oh wait, no I don't.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Clinton Foundation donors include dozens of media organizations, individuals
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/clinton-foundation-donors-include-dozens-of-media-organizations-individuals-207228
She's their pick.
mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)thanks for pointing that out
msrizzo
(796 posts)This just happened today also.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/22/charity-watchdog-removes-clinton-foundation-from-its-watch-list/?postshare=9171450908672396&tid=ss_tw
Nice of the Washington Post to mention that their reporting was part of the "media attention" that got the Clinton Foundation on that Watch List to begin with.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)I want Bernie but I wish the Clinton's the best. I just think they are too ingrained in the oligarchy. However, I'll fight for Hillary if Bernie loses. Just with a bit less enthusiasm.
msrizzo
(796 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)campaigns are just going to dog pile her instead of debating the issues that concern voters....attacks distract the voter away from what the attacker lacks...which is substance....sound and fury signifying nothing...attacks abandon voters.....
BlueCheese
(2,522 posts)In November, this pollster had Clinton up 58-30. Now it's 50-34. This might be just random fluctuations, but it's at least in the right direction for Sanders. Here's more of this poll's history, with all numbers Clinton-Sanders:
12/17-12/21: 50-34
11/27-12/1: 58-30
10/14-10/17: 45-29
9/17-9/19: 42-24
9/4-9/8: 37-27
Not sure what to make of the pre/post-debate split. Also likely random noise, given the small sizes of each subsample.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)I didn't see a mention of whether the post-debate was a representative sample. Actually the PDF has no information about the post-debate polling.
Another very suspicious thing was that for question #13 the directive was to read candidate's names in a random order, but not for #14. That makes the results of #14 suspect, don't you think?
Some good reading on what is called "first-listing bias": http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/04/opinion/04krosnick.html
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/newslet_909cb.html <-- Very interesting source
Even more: http://www.yalescientific.org/2008/11/the-mind-and-the-ballot-the-role-of-psychology-in-elections/
fasttense
(17,301 posts)That it had an impact? All 12 voters who could find the Democratic debates changed over to Hillary. She keeps this up, no one will ever know Democrats debate.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)Bernie's numbers are shown going up, and they claim people are running to Hillary. This is just the latest in a long line of drivel from CNN.
"Oh, but we swear we made some calls after the debate, and people wanted her instead!" Bull. Fucking. Shit.
riversedge
(70,243 posts)Music to my ears. Politico does not learn toward Hillary. It is the survey numbers that they and CNN are reporting.
Poll: Clinton strengthens national lead over Sanders
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-national-cnn-orc-poll-217115#ixzz3vBift1JZ
By Eliza Collins
12/23/15 04:56 PM EST
Hillary Clintons national lead over her primary rivals is even stronger following her performance during Saturdays Democratic debate, according to a CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday.
Overall, the former secretary of state is ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 50 percent to 34 percent.
But based on a breakdown from surveys taken before and after the debate, Clintons lead has grown even more after her performance. Before Saturday, Clinton was leading Sanders 45 percent to 37 percent. In surveys taken after Saturday, Clinton shot up to 60 percent while Sanders dropped to 27 percent.
Clinton is also dominant on the major issues: She holds a commanding lead over Sanders on foreign policy, 72 percent to his 15 percent; a big lead on handling the Islamic State, 63 percent to 18 percent: and on guns, Clinton comes out ahead 51 percent to 30 percent. Although Sanders heavy focus on the economy puts the two closest on that issue, Clinton leads again: Only 39 percent see him as the most qualified to handle economic issues versus 47 for Clinton.............
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-national-cnn-orc-poll-217115#ixzz3vBift1JZ
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)The poll shows Bernie gaining, and there is no data to support that claim.
please_read
(11 posts)The links to their sources of the "previous polls" don't even work
bl968
(360 posts)Oh really in the last CNN poll before the debate Clinton was at 58, Sanders was at 30, and O'Malley was at 2.
In the most recent post debate CNN poll, Clinton was at 50 and Sanders was at 34, O'Malley was at 3.
We also went from 3% undecided to 5%. In case you were wondering where the rest of the Clinton supporters have gone.
So clearly you are living in another dimension...
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)This 'move towards Hillary' is fucking hilarious. .
Who'd a thunk?
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)unless they come to my door.
Cha
(297,323 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Thanks, Tricky Deb!