2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhich candidate has the best chance of wining the most seats in congress
We need to win back the Senate and take as many seats in the house as we can, does any of our candidates have a better chance of doing this more than any other, if so who & why?
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)have a better shot at retaking the Senate.
The House has been gerrymandered beyond easy reach. Not out of the question, but a far tougher trip.
Our chances at significant gains in the House improve, IMO, if Cruz and Trump win three or four of the first primary / caucus contests.
That will set into motion an error-prone reaction by GOP power brokers who will be in full panic mode because they know nominating either a fascist or a malevolent fundie spells disaster for a lot of down-ballot races.
awake
(3,226 posts)I am thinking since there is a lot of simularity in our candidates issues then question comes down to which one could turn out a larger number of independent or even republican voters who might help us get seats in congress.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)a national election, minus the distortion of those issues by media, and minus the degree of awareness in some voters.
There are what pollster have called "low-information voters," and they may not be voting with any nuanced perceptions.
To my set of pre-primary scales, any Democratic nominee gives us a better than even shot at retaking the Senate.
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)Why Hillary Clinton of course what with her nuanced positions and ability to Triangulate at the drop of a hat... She will have the trust of all the people all the time...
awake
(3,226 posts)But I am begaining to think this question my be one of the most important questions in desiding whom to vote for.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)... will hedge their bet.
awake
(3,226 posts)And whom do you suggest we get behind?
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)The HRC camp knows they have a problem with young voters. HRC and the DNC are gambling they can win the GE without them which automatically will hand the House and Senate to the GOP
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)we pick up a significant number of House seats, forcing Ryan to deal with Democrats in that chamber.
The demographic turnout percentages can be discussed but not known until after votes are cast.
Allegiances can shift. Voting percentages often shift with them.
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)Hillary is not bring any youth votes to the table and as hateful as the GOP base is of her they will turn out in droves to vote against her.
Bernie on the other hand has already begun to mobilize an Army of Young Voters. Voters that would possibly be voting for Dem candidates for years to come.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)Bernie wins the nomination.
But the percentages of demographic turnout are theoretical until the vote is counted and the results analyzed.
treestar
(82,383 posts)our candidate for President does not run for those seats.
This magical "top down" thinking is not so absolute that you should refer to it as winning or losing being the responsibility of the Presidential candidate.
As to "coattails" Hillary would have more of them as she has a longer relationships and ties to the Democratic party.
awake
(3,226 posts)Also if any of our candidates could dramatically increases voter turn out we could win more seats.
onecaliberal
(32,882 posts)if the corporate candidate gets the nomination, millions of dems will sit it out, sadly. It's what we've seen in the past. I guess the party refuses to learn from its mistakes. It's easier for them to blame the victims. The people whose lives are really hurt and ruined by the corporate politics of the last 3 decades. Death by 1000 paper cuts is still death.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)TRUE Progressives, Independents, Millenials, some Repubs, Baby Boomers will vote for Bernie and every other Progressive /LIBERAL down the ballot.
On the other hand, HRH IS LOATHED, DESPISED, HATED WITH A PASSION, by the Gop/Teabaggers who will show up IN DROVES just to vote against a CLINTON. Not only will they vote for someone in the clown car, but they will vote for all the other GOP/TEABAGGERS down ticket.
BERNIE = HUGE COATTAILS.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
awake
(3,226 posts)I remember thinking that no one could vote for Ronald Regun or Ventura
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Trump WILL win if he's the REPUB nominee.
Millennials, Independents, Many, many boomers and TRUE Progressives are not going to vote for Hillary. That's just a fact. HRH cannot win the GE. Bernie Can win and will. Bernie has the support of the 99%. HRH has the support of the 1%.
99% > 1%.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)There is no excitement around the Hillary campaign. DWS/Third Way® has cost us massively the last two midterms. Given Hillary is joined at the hip with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, we would see even more losses should she win.
HoneychildMooseMoss
(251 posts)Absolutely none, in both 1992 and 1996.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)(The question presented in the OP makes as much sense as the old riddle about a no-man's-land train wreck that asks "where would you bury the survivors?"
awake
(3,226 posts)I believe that who is at the top of the ticket may very well effect voter turn out ether for or against them which could make a difference in some House and Senate races. So as I am trying to think about whom I should vote for in the primary I will be thinking about this question.
brooklynite
(94,679 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)If Hill wins and makes, wait for it-DWS her Press Secy, the party could get a qualified Demo Socialist to run the party. That will result in future gains in both Houses of Govemrnment. But we all known Hill will only find another third Wayer to take over the DNC.
Since political incest with Hill in office will kill what's left of this country as we once knew it, we better sure as shit elect Bernie.
The Golden One
(46 posts)Speak the truth.
brooklynite
(94,679 posts)...a direct quote from a candidate.
MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)The party is basically united behind her, even before the 1st vote.
Much of this depends on the Puke nominee. A Rubio/Kasich ticket will be tough. A Trump/whothefuckever will not.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)He would also probably do better at attracting cross over voters including independents and some Republicans. While Secretary Clinton would do better on the fund raising angle as well as working with the Party machinery. ON the other hand Secretary Clinton would probably inspire the Republicans and Republican leaning independents to come out and vote against her in bigger numbers than Senator Sanders would.
All these things could to some degree effect the turnout for the U.S. Senate campaigns. I don't think it's possible to say just now who would contribute more in the effort to take back the Senate.