Super Tuesday won't end anything.

[Ken Burch]

1) Bernie's support in Super Tuesday states is slowly rising, especially among POC. The polls bear this out. It is becoming clearer to more and more POC voters, given the increasing number of POC endorsements Bernie is getting and the increasingly multiracial composition of Sanders rallies, that they were lied to about Bernie and race...and it seems likely that the race will tighten as the days go by and this awareness grows.

2) Most voters in Super Tuesday states aren't "winners" in the post-1981 economy. This will weaken support for any candidate with big corporate donors and candidates who think that you can represent Wall Street and Main Street at the same time.

3) Like voters in the rest of the country, Super Tuesday voters are distrustful of anyone seen as an insider or part of the Establishment. This makes the contest less predictable than some would like.

4) Even if he does badly on Super Tuesday, Bernie won't be obligated to get out and endorse HRC(assuming she does well) the next morning. There are voters all over the country who want to have a say in the nomination process(and the platform-and voters know that only a vote for Bernie-or, in a handful of areas, O'Malley, who also has every right to stay in-will be a vote for a progressive platform that actually speaks to grassroots issues). The Sanders campaign will not give in to anyone's heavy-handed efforts to make most of the primaries meaningless. We will fight on as long as possible to give the people of the party the full say they are all entitled to have.

So everyone might as well get used to it...Super Tuesday will be just another part of the cycle-neither the first, nor the last.

[LWolf]

1. Good.

I don't get to vote until late May.

[firebrand80]

2. Of course they have the "right" to stay in

Hillary stayed in last time past the point where it was possible for her to win.

But if Bernie is getting beat badly in state after state, the media will stop paying attention to him and Hillary will switch to GE mode. Im certain many of his supporters will claim this as further proof of the oligarchy.

[KingCharlemagne]

4. Did the media ever start paying attention to him? - nt

[daleanime]

6. +1

[Ken Burch]

8. And it did no harm that she stayed in.

We're better off as a party having everyone in every part of the country energized. That can't be made to happen if the contest is declared over early.

No harm in being sure the whole country has its say. Most of the Super Tuesday states are going to go Republican presidentially for the rest of eternity(no Dem will ever carry South Carolina again, for example) so why should states we can't ever win again have a king(or queen)maker role? And why should D.C., New York, California and the Midwest be irrelevant in the nomination process?

[firebrand80]

10. I agree, partially

I think it benefits the party to always have a stringly contested primary. I think we always need to make sure that we have a nominee that can walk through fire.

I don't, however, think Bernie is capable of putting up that kind of fight. On the bright side, Hillary proved her mettle last time, so I'm not really worried about her.

[NCTraveler]

3. Hopefully Iowa will. Nt

[restorefreedom]

5. nah, I think bernie will have to get a few more

under his belt before people are convinced he will be the nom

[NCTraveler]

20. .

[MohRokTah]

7. You're gonna be a sad clown come MArch 2.

Oh well.

At least Sanders will have Vermont.

[Ken Burch]

9. If Bernie got, all the energy in the party would instantly die out. Nothing would sustain it.

Even as the supporter of the status quo candidate, you shouldn't want that.

[MohRokTah]

11. The Sanders camapaign will be over at the end fo the night on March 1.

The only reason it will last that long is because his home state is a Super Tuesday state.

[Ken Burch]

13. Wishing won't make it so.

And HRC couldn't win in the fall if most Democrats feel they didn't get a say in the primaries. Only the Republiban benefits from a coronation.

What's the harm in letting the whole party matter this time?

[MohRokTah]

14. I don't need to wish.

It's the reality of the situation.

[Ken Burch]

16. The situation is fluid.

And no harm would come of the primaries in strong Democratic states actually mattering.

We can only win in the fall if everyone is engaged and energized all the way. 2000 and 2004 prove that coronations mean defeats.

[MohRokTah]

18. No, the situation is not fluid.

It hasn't been fluid in months.

It's stagnant. Hillary has a 2:1 advantage and that has remained the same now since the beginning of OCtober, so three months of a non-fluid situation.

[Dawgs]

23. You just described 2007.

The numbers didn't change between Hillary and Obama until January. Bernie may not do what Obama did but saying "not being fluid in months" is just wrong at this point.

[MohRokTah]

30. You just compared apples to horse flies.

It was a three way race in 2007. If you look at every poll taken in the 2007/2008 primary season, only a single ARG poll had Hillary Clinton breaking 50%. No other poll during the entire race had her over 50%.

Now, go back and look. There was a single poll that had Hillary UNDER 50%.

So the two primary season have absolutely nothing in common.

[Dawgs]

32. Not very good at math or politics, huh?

Sorry.

[MohRokTah]

33. As I demonstrated, you are not very good at math and politics.

Thank you for the apology.

[Dawgs]

34. Ugh!

You really should just stop.

[MohRokTah]

38. Social convention dictated I thank you for apologizing for being wrong. eom

[Dawgs]

40. And it gets worse.

[Waiting for Someone]

41. Then I feel sorry for you.

You won't like the result at the end of the primaries.

[MohRokTah]

43. .

[frylock]

54. See you here on 3/2.

[MineralMan]

12. I believe you are mistaken in that.

Still, we won't have to wait all that long to find out, will we?

Some time ago, I predicted that Bernie Sanders would withdraw his candidacy and endorse Hillary Clinton on March 2. I see no reason to change that prediction at this time.

[Ken Burch]

15. There's no reason for Bernie to do that.

It would betray progressive people in most of the country. There's no reason to want the race over on Mar 2nd. Nobody the Democratic Party fights for could possibly benefit from that, or from the massive swing back to the DLC right we both know HRC will instantly take once she thinks the primaries are over.

You should want Democrats all over the country to have a real say. It can only strengthen us.

And you really need to lose the "leave it to us grown-ups" tone. It's anti-progressive and deeply unbecoming.

[MineralMan]

31. It's a prediction. That's all.

If I'm wrong, I'll readily admit it. I think I will not have to do that, though. You think I'm wrong. That's also a prediction. I'm not seeing the difference, really.

[Robbins]

17. calling it now

On super tuesday Bernie wins some states and clinton wins some states.Super tuesday won't be blowout for clinton many assumed.

If bernie wins both iowa and NH then nevada and SC become more intresting.I still expect Clinton to win SC but it may not be the
blowout most assumed.Nevada may become a fight for clinton.

Bernie's support among minorities is growing.

[riversedge]

21. I would not bet a penny on your call.

[Waiting for Someone]

42. I would. $100.

Clinton will not succeed in securing the nomination. Fact.

[riversedge]

44. you are funny

[Waiting for Someone]

45. How elitist of you.

[riversedge]

47. Whow--3 posts and already name calling.

[Waiting for Someone]

50. Name calling? It's who you are.

Clinton only attract elitists and obnoxious people who has theirs, fuck everyone else.

Good luck with the primaries. I just don't see any way for Clinton to win.

[In_The_Wind]

57. Oh my! Welcome to DU ~ Waiting for Someone

[img][/img]

[riversedge]

49. and why have you posted 3 posts on this thread and your total posts still say 3 posts. ???????

[Godhumor]

19. I think it entirely depends on NH

If Clinton wins Iowa handily, which would move enough support to her in NH to win that state (More than half of NHers stay undecided until after Iowa results) and that is then followed up by a blood bath on Super Tuesday...I think Bernie might cut the cord.

If Clinton's win in Iowa is a close one and Bernie wins a close one in NH, then he will probably stay in the race past Super Tuesday, regardless of the margin of his losses that day.

Either way, my guess is Clinton moves entirely into GE mode after Super Tuesday.

[Dawgs]

24. No way she wins Iowa handily. All of the enthusiasm is on the side of Sanders.

You aren't wrong that NH and Iowa are really important for Sanders though.

[riversedge]

48. Hillary has the enthusiasm and

the bubbly. Happy new Year.

[1StrongBlackMan]

26. dt think you are reading what the OP is actually saying ...

I interpret the OP to mean (and I could be wrong) ... even if Bernie loses, Iowa, N.H., and Super Tuesday, badly ... he should soldier on ... well ... because the people want him to.

[Godhumor]

27. Oh, I know. I just don't think Bernie necessarily agrees with doing so

If he is getting blown out, I imagine he might pull out specifically to solidify support around the frontrunner and work towards defeating the Republicans. I'm not sure he would soldier on just to soldier on.

[1StrongBlackMan]

28. I think your assessment is sound ...

I would hope he would not press a vanity campaign beyond the possibility of winning the nomination. And that will likely come long before his followers recognize it.

[wildeyed]

37. Yes, because people power is strong!

The Force is with them. I just found out about this tonight!

It actually made me really mad when Hillary tried to pull that last time.... If it comes to it, I think Sanders will make a deal with Clinton, force her to commit to one of his issues more strongly and/or appoint someone he likes for an important policy position in exchange for a clean withdrawal from the race and strong endorsement. That would be the smart thing to do.

[tritsofme]

51. In such a situation, Sanders won't be in a position to be ticking off demands

At that point, if he insists on continuing his quixotic campaign, Team Hillary will have already moved on.

[tritsofme]

22. It will have effectively ended when Hillary caps an early state sweep with a dominant SC performance

Sanders has to win NH to make this race even credibly extend to Super Tuesday.

[riversedge]

46. Your post deserves a bubbly....

[comradebillyboy]

52. Somebody is ready to celebrate the new year and

I can see why. Have a glorious 2016

[riversedge]

56. back at yah.

[Live and Learn]

25. K&R nt

[NurseJackie]

29. Not mathematically. But Super Tuesday will certainly put a damper on things for Bernie's fans.

We'll have to wait until the end of March (maybe April) before Bernie has no mathematical pathway to secure the nomination, and when even the most hardcore and optimistic of Bernie's fans will have no choice but to accept the fact that he's not going to be the nominee.

[RobertEarl]

35. Just a beginning

You are correct Ken, that Tuesday means little, it isn't even half the country and after that date Bernie's popularity will only increase.

I look forward to an exciting and contentious convention instead of the same old.

I, for one, will be pulling for and supporting Bernie at least until the end of the convention.

[seabeyond]

36. I don't think your analysis is correct. I think it highly flawed. I am willing not to predict and

Simply watch as it happens. That works best for me.

[Hiraeth]

39. Just talked to an R woman in my state (we are an open primary) who is voting for MO'M.

She still likes Fiorina on the other side and said she wished Trump would shut up his big mouth.

[Bleacher Creature]

53. When Super Tuesday is finished, 16 primaries will be done.

And unless the dynamic changes, Sanders is likely to be on the losing side of at least 14 out of those 16. He may be mathematically alive afterwards, but that's not the kind of thing campaigns come back from easily, which is pretty much what happened to Bill Bradley in 2000.

Look, I like and respect Sanders and strongly align with him on the issues. I think he has had a hugely important role in improving this race, and think he deserves to see it through as far as he can. And until his role shifts from challenger to spoiler, he should stay in the race.

That said, I support HRC because I think she'll be a better candidate and a far more effective President. I supported her in 2008 as well, but ultimately voted for Obama after his impressive showing in the first few weeks showed me that he had the smarter, nimbler, and more effective operation. If Sanders can do the same, great, but it's looking more and more doubtful by the day.

[brooklynite]

58. I've never assumed Sanders would stop campaigning...

...like Jerry Brown, he'll continue to campaign until the Convention to press his issues. But absent a completely unexpected development where Sanders wins or is competitive in several of the Super Tuesday States (particularly in the South where he's shown no traction with African-American voters -- Killer Mike notwithstanding), following Super Tuesday, there will be no obvious target States with significant numbers of delegates in play.

[Gothmog]

55. Sanders will be so far behind in delegates that he will have no chance to catch up

Texas has three times the number of delegates as Iowa and New Hampshire combined and almost twice the number of delegates as the four states where Sanders is doing well in according to the polls (Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire and Utah).