Trouble brewing for Bernie in New Hampshire: Independents are being drawn to the GOP primary

[Cali_Democrat]

New Hampshire Independents May Control Fates of Trump and Sanders

<...>

About 40 percent of the New Hampshire electorate is independent (officially called undeclared) — a greater voter share than either party can boast — and is allowed to participate in either primary.

And their choices could be decisive for two very different candidates, Donald J. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders, who are counting on independent support to win the state.

Early indications suggest that independents are being drawn to the turbulent Republican race, where the large number of candidates can give these voters an outsize role in the outcome of the Feb. 9 primary and shape the contest beyond.

Janet Doyle, an undeclared voter from Portsmouth, said she usually votes Democratic. But she suggested a sort of civic duty this time to participate in the Republican primary instead.

<...>

many voters see the Republican primary as more competitive and intend to take that party’s ballot, according to recent interviews with two dozen independents.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/us/politics/independents-could-be-decisive-in-both-new-hampshire-primaries.html?_r=0

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. But if Bernie wins Iowa that all changes

Suddenly the Democratic race will become a whole lot more interesting and compelling to participate in if he does. The media narrative is that only the Republican nomination fight is up for grabs. If Sanders wins Iowa that seeming certainty utterly dissolves.

[Hortensis]

33. Probably true. New Hampshire is significantly more blue collar

and conservative than Vermont, and it's not surprising that conservatives will pick up votes there. Even more so in the general when the GOP identifies one candidate to support. The Democratic Party needs Bernie to help carry New Hampshire in the general -- for the cause!

[Dawson Leery]

3. This was supposed to be an easy win for Bernie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. This is disturbing

"As Mr. Rubio posed for photographs with voters after the rally, Dave Crossan and his wife, Marilyn, watched him with mixed feelings. They believe that his Cuban roots could help attract Hispanic voters who are crucial to winning the presidency, but they dislike that he has skipped many votes in the Senate. They also admire Mr. Kasich, but are torn about his lack of traction in the polls. Mr. Trump and Carly Fiorina do not seem like winners to them.

So Mr. Crossan may vote for Mr. Sanders, if only to make Mrs. Clinton sweat.

“I don’t want Bernie Sanders to be president,” he said, “but I’ll vote for him anyway.” "

[JonLeibowitz]

11. It's a story old as time

Saying that a candidate is being supported by party opponents who want the weaker general election candidate to win the primary.

And rarely is it true in any meaningful way.

[CorporatistNation]

22. "Selective Interviewing..."

[JonLeibowitz]

26. Of course! I expect this from our corporate media.

[Live and Learn]

5. And that would make you happy? nt

[Cali_Democrat]

6. This is not about me. nt

[Ernesto]

8. Great answer!!!!.......... n-t

[artislife]

23. Being that you vote in California, that is a good thing to feel.

Since your primary is so late.

[sorechasm]

7. The article is entirely anecdotal, without data to support any 'troubling' signs.

The last anecdote is of a voter who may vote for Bernie out of spite. NH independents have a history of supporting emerging candidates (Obama, Carter). Bernie seems to fit that narrative. The Iowa primary may confirm it.

[HerbChestnut]

15. Don't worry.

There's been a few polls that have interviewed Independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary as opposed to the Republican primary that show him still in the lead even with reduced Independent turnout. Bernie is winning New Hampshire.

[Thinkingabout]

27. Yes, in 2008 they gave the go ahead to Hillary.

[DCBob]

9. Exactly as I predicted weeks ago.

Bernie needs those independents to have a chance at winning there.

[FourScore]

10. The NYT is in the process of publishing a series of doom-and-gloom-for-Bernie articles.

I am worried that I have seen this playbook before.

[Skwmom]

14. The rag that is in the bag for Clinton - what a surprise (sarcasm intended). n/t

[comradebillyboy]

25. Since when has the NYT been a supporter of either of the Clintons? When Bill was elected

both the NYT and Washington Post treated the Clintons like they were the Beverley Hillbillies, uppity people who rose above their rightful station in life. The Times has done several major hatchet jobs on Hillary this year that they had to retract, re-edit or apologize for. The WaPO has done at least 50 unfavorable Clinton email stories.

[concreteblue]

12. TWO DOZEN!!!!???? 24?????!!!

THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!
ROFLMAO....more SHrillary desperation.......

[ebayfool]

13. Yeah, that jumped out at me too. Don't see how they can proclaim a trend basing it on that small ...

number of people.


" ... according to recent interviews with two dozen independents. "

[redstateblues]

35. Kinda like the "all my friends are voting for Bernie" posts

How can he possibly lose

[baldguy]

16. Look up the definition of "weighted statistical sampling".

[ebayfool]

17. A 24 person sample size out of approx. 197,000 independents?

"In 2008, the last time the state hosted two competitive primaries, about 530,000 ballots were cast, with about 197,000 of them coming from independents."



I read that the precision of your estimates is determined by the sample size and that an increased sample size will lead to more precise estimates. Or do I have that wrong?

[Bjorn Against]

21. Any statistician would tell you that weighting a sample size of 24 is useless

A sample that small can not be weighted in any statistically significant way.

[DCBob]

34. The article isn't about a scientific poll.

They are simply noting a potential issue regarding independents switching votes. It could be a problem for Bernie.

[Bjorn Against]

36. Read the post I was responding, the poster claimed this is "weighted statistical sampling"

You are right that this is not a scientific poll, in fact it is a pretty much baseless article that relies entirely on anecdotal evidence. When someone claims it is a "weighted statistical sample" however I had to point out that you can not weight a sample this small with any statistical accuracy.

[DCBob]

37. Thank you for the clarification but its not entirely baseless.

I think it could have a impact on election day.

[Bjorn Against]

38. It is baseless, there is no statistical evidence to back up the article's claims

[DCBob]

39. As I said it's not meant be statistical or scientific.

Its just a discussion of of a potential issue which doesn't require statistical proof... imo.

[BlueMTexpat]

29. Desperation?

Hardly that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

I have long believed that Bernie would be the likely winner in NH (I am a Hillary supporter). But the latest poll (from 20 Dec) is encouraging for Hillary there so perhaps I am wrong.

[artislife]

18. Oooo...scary

[DCBob]

19. I think they got this idea from me..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251871533

[NCTraveler]

32. +1 nt

[Codeine]

20. I'm supporting Clinton, but I'm confident

Sander will take NH. This is a silly article based on less than nothing.

[bigdarryl]

24. You can thank Karen Hunter for a lot of this

She's on radio talking about taking back the party Lincoln

[Gothmog]

28. The GOP contest is both closed and more interesting than the Democratic contest

There is no chance that Sanders will be the Democratic nominee even if he wins New Hampshire and Iowa (sanders is behind currently in Iowa and has a bad ground game in Iowa). Predictwise has sanders at 7% chance of being the nominee (which is up from 5%) but the GOP contest is far more competitive and interesting

[Sheepshank]

30. I have a strategy idea for Bernie

Launch a ton of very positive ads for Trump.

Once the conversion to Trump is complete, start appealing to Trump supporters for a reconversion.

But all of that must be done asap....he is running out of time.

[NCTraveler]

31. They have a serious battle going. Nt

[Gloria]

40. Success...oops, NOT getting the Trump voters?

eom