Nate Silver: Sept. 14: Obama Forecast Declines on Poor Manufacturing Report

[DonViejo]

President Obama’s odds of winning the Electoral College fell for the second consecutive day on Friday according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now listed at 76.2 percent, down from 78.6 percent in Thursday’s forecast.

The most significant reason for the decline was a poor report in one of the economic data series that forecast model tracks, industrial production. A government report on Friday found a sharp decline in industrial production in August, which has otherwise been among the more positive economic data series.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[CoffeeCat]

1. I'll take that...

If Obama being at 76.2 percent is our worst news, then we're doing pretty darn well aren't we?

Isn't it amazing that after all of Romney's colossal gaffes and shameful comments and actions--that he's not
down to .00001 percent?

That's really the amazing and notable news connected to Nate Silver!

[Stargleamer]

2. an overreaction, perhaps?

how much a manufacturing sector do we have nowadays anyhow--isn't most of our stuff we get made in China?

[speedoo]

3. It was August.

Was any seasonal adjustment made in the data? If not, it should bounce back up shortly.

[Blue Yorker]

4. How about "Consumer Confidence reaches 4-month high"?

Will that raise the forecast up?

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-09-14/economy/33830525_1_consumer-sentiment-gasoline-prices-neil-dutta