Nate Silver: 'Trump Has More of a Chance Than Bernie' of Winning a Nomination

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Triumph of the Nerds: Nate Silver Wins in 50 States



Barack Obama may have comfortably won re-election in the electoral college, and opened up a decisive lead (two million and counting) in the popular vote. But here is the absolute, undoubted winner of this election: Nate Silver and his running mate, big data.

The Fivethirtyeight.com analyst, despite being pilloried by the pundits, outdid even his 2008 prediction. In that year, his mathematical model correctly called 49 out of 50 states, missing only Indiana (which went to Obama by 0.1%.)

This year, according to all projections, Silver's model has correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states. A last-minute flip for Florida, which finally went blue in Silver's prediction on Monday night, helped him to a perfect game.


http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/#rFxLAbMndaqZ

Is there any chance Hillary isn't the Democratic nominee?
I think you would have to have some type of renewed scandal or health problem or something like that. I could see Bernie Sanders winning a few states. New Hampshire is still very close. But her chances have to be in the range of 90 [percent] to 95 percent. Trump has more of a chance than Bernie.

http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/nate-silver-trump-has-more-chance-bernie-beating-clinton-168776

[Bjornsdotter]

1. Okay

Still donating and voting for Bernie.

[randys1]

4. Good, do that. And if Bernie wins, great. If he doesnt, he will ask you to join him

in supporting whoever the candidate is.

[Bjornsdotter]

6. Okay

I voted for Carter in 1980, Mondale in 1984, Dukakis in 1988, Clinton in 1992, Clinton in 1996, Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, Obama in 2008, and Obama in 2012. Not all of those votes came with donations and a few were more " a vote against the other guy".

I think I've got a handle on this.

[randys1]

7. Sounded like you did, i was just saying good. More important is get new voters

[notadmblnd]

2. Sander's isn't running as a republican

so yeah, Bernie doesn't have a chance of winning the republican nomination over Trump. It doesn't take a genius like Silver to figure that out.

[anigbrowl]

14. You'll be happier if you give up this style of thinking

You know that wasn't what he meant, and yet you spent some of your precious time cooking up a rebuttal to something he never said. Who's worse off, you or Nate Silver? Hint: It ain't Nate Silver.

[PyaarRevolution]

17. Yes notblnd.

Just shut up, sell out your hope and vote Hillary in the primaries. Let your hope die like another poster on here who once had it beaten out of him by the big political machine.

I admit I'm being a bit sarcastic but I believe Bernie can win and this will be the big anomaly for Silver's software.

[anigbrowl]

18. Enjoy your sarcasm

I value my time and clear conscience too much to go putting words in people's mouths like you do.

[PyaarRevolution]

20. I feel like your implication...

was that he's is denial and he would be better to sober up and come to terms with Hillary winning.

Oh and if you think I was referring to you as that poster who has let hope die I'm not and I apologize if I gave you that impression. It breaks my heart seeing him have lost hope.

[anigbrowl]

23. Oh I see

It was the wild rhetorical contortion I was referring to, not the odds (which might change).

[notadmblnd]

60. HRC supporters make wild rhetorical contortions all the freaking time

Are you on here berating and demeaning them too? Yeah, I didn't think so.

[anigbrowl]

65. Ah, 'tu quoque'.

I am not one of those people and I call out fallacies wherever I see them. However I do not read every thread so it might take me some time to get around to everyone.

[notadmblnd]

83. And I feel certain you'll be just as strident in pointing it out to HRC supporters too

[notadmblnd]

59. Hey you! You didn't answer me

What is with the personal attack? Because there was absolutely no justification for you taking it there. If your time were truly precious you'd be doing something productive with your time other than making nasty comments in regards to DU members.

Perhaps it takes you precious time to come up with a flip comment in regards to Silver comparing Sanders and Trump. For me it was merely a few seconds. If your time was truly precious you would have simply moved on.

So instead of alerting on your rude and nasty comment, I'm going to let it stand so people can judge for themselves who's the one that is worse off.

[anigbrowl]

66. I had more important things to do this morning than rush to reply to you.

Also, going by the time of your post you are either an insomniac or living several time zones to the east. I live on the west coast and rarely look at DU before lunch. Some days I don't go on the internet at all. You have since admitted (in agreement with em) that you knew perfectly well that Nate Silver meant; that you think my poking holes in your argument is the same as a personal attack is your problem, not mine. I know nothing about you other than how you choose to express yourself, and I responded to the substance of that self-expression. Alert or not as you see fit, I am perfectly happy for people to judge the quality of debate for themselves.

[notadmblnd]

67. You didn't poke holes. You berated me.

You could have made your point with out the rudeness. You made it personal.

[anigbrowl]

68. I did not. I said I think you'd be happier if you spent less time formulating illogical arguments.

You keep complaining about rudeness, but I have not called you any names or cast any asparagus* in your direction. You agreed yourself that your original argument was just snark. I have no interest in insulting you.

* I'm all out of aspersions right now.

[notadmblnd]

69. Your comment about my happiness was not sincere and we both know it.

now I'm done. You have a great evening.

[anigbrowl]

70. On the contrary

I used to prefer a more confrontational approach, firing off political zingers as fast as I thought of them. But as I got older I found a more dispassionate debate style did my stress levels a world of good.

[notadmblnd]

58. I do too. But it didn't make sense to me to compare Sanders and Trump

It means nothing. Sanders is not a republican and Trump is not a Democrat. Any fool can predict that Trump will be the nominee over the rest of the dolts in the Republican clown car. But it doesn't have anything to do with Senator Sanders winning the Democratic nomination.

Skinner (one of the DU admins) stated the other day that here at DU, people support Sander's over Clinton 6 to 1. If the rest of the country is like minded (which we really don't know) then Sanders has it by a landslide.

[PyaarRevolution]

62. More than we think.

But not by 6 to 1. I think the more people who know about Bernie, the more likely they will vote for him. Conversely, the more people who know about Hillary the less likely they will vote for her if they know about Bernie.

[notadmblnd]

30. What's with the personal attack?

is that all you got? C'mon, you can do better. This time use swear words for more impact.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. Mr. Sliver was obviously describing Trump and Sanders' chances in their own party.

Do you dispute that?


Thank you in advance.

[notadmblnd]

61. I knew perfectly well what he meant

of course any fool can see that Trump has the best chance of winning the Republican nomination compared to the rest of the clowns riding in the car.

But it doesn't have a damn thing to do with Sander's winning the Democratic nomination- which I think he is wrong on.

And it doesn't matter what I wrote. It does not justify the personal attack.

[Yogert]

16. Silver didn't say or imply that

Obviously.

[Lil Missy]

28. Nor does it take a genius to figure out that Sanders doesn't stand a chance of winning the Primary.

[NCTraveler]

74. Nate didn't say what you think he did. Not even close. nt.

[NurseJackie]

3. Math.

[wildeyed]

10. Totally stealing that.

Because if you want to really understand what polls and demographics mean, MATH will set you free!

[RoccoR5955]

11. You forgot a few things.

Math may be one of them but there are other things involved in poll results.
A few are demographics, sample size, questions asked, and the entire methodology of the poll. Generally speaking any polling outfit can word the questions such that they can get any result that they want.
So yeah, there's math, but the psychology is more important.

[wildeyed]

13. Yep.

Not all polls are created equal. But 538 and a few other aggregator systems us a weighted system that partially accounts for things like that. They weight the scores according to methodology and past performance. And then the use of many, many polls helps eliminate sample size errors.

Polls are just predictions. We still have to play the game. But 538 has been pretty damn accurate in the past. I would look very closely at his conclusions before I placed my bet.

Here is another good article.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a16550/nate-silver-pundits-14363012/

[NurseJackie]

21. "Who don't you not maybe want to perhaps not vote against if the democratic primary were today?"

Those tricky dastardly pollsters! Damn them all to hell!

[RoccoR5955]

80. If English is your second language

Please have someone who you may know whose first language is English please translate this into English.
I am not sure what it is. The words are English, but the grammar is all over the place.
I simply do not understand what you are trying to say, so please, if you want to convey something, take my advice.
Thanks in advance.

[NurseJackie]

81. That was intentional, I assure you. ;-)

[riversedge]

5. Hillary is doing a great intervue on Chris Matthews right now.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. I'd love to see a Sanders vs Trump matchup.

Socialist vs Capitalist.

[Art_from_Ark]

19. More like Democratic Socialist vs. Disaster Capitalist

[restorefreedom]

45. many in the press are starting to admit

this is a real possibility. antiestablishment socialist vs "don't need the establishment" capitalist

would be a VERY interesting ge!

[thesquanderer]

9. Cool - Sanders has 5% to 10% chance of winning the nomination

That's actually better than I thought!

Thanks for posting some good news.

[wildeyed]

12. That man is a freakin' rock star.

People had done poll aggregators like his before that were fairly accurate. What he did that was different, that made me want to hold my head and scream like a Beatle-mania fangirl, was to call out the pundits out for making bad predictions based on gut. Only good thing that has happened to political and public discourse in recent memory.

It was interesting how he went down here in 2012. People loved him to the moon and stars at first, when his model predicted a crushing Obama victory. But as the polls tightened a bit, the same people got SO MAD and started calling him out as a Libertarian disruptor and all kinds of weird thing. But he was using the exact same model. None of his assumptions changed, just the polling data. But he was the bad guy, in many minds.

Well he was right about everything.

[Hiraeth]

15. Could Nate Silver just be a flash in the pan?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. As much as a "flash in the pan" as the Rolling Stones were

[Hiraeth]

33. Time Is On My Side -

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo (Heartbreaker)

[Hiraeth]

36. Ha!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. We Are The Champions

[Hiraeth]

39. Imagine

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. "What A Wonderful World" It Will Be When Hillary Becomes President

[Hiraeth]

42. The Roof is On Fire

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Happy Days Are Here Again.

[Hiraeth]

46. Indeed - If I Can Dream -

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Hillary Is " Simply The Best "

[jfern]

22. 538 also said Jim Webb would be the anti-Hillary

They have no credibility with this primary.

[Eric J in MN]

24. Good catch.

538 article implying Jim Webb will be the main primary challenger to Hillary Clinton, since more Democrats who don't support her want someone more conservative:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jim-webb-would-make-a-good-anti-clinton-in-2016/

[brooklynite]

51. This isn't a Nate Silver analysis...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. Correct./nt

[JonLeibowitz]

26. That article, viewed today, reads like a The Onion piece. Simply hilarious

"The difference isn’t huge, but it’s clear Clinton has less support among moderate and conservative Democrats than she does among liberal Democrats."

"Again, Clinton does well with all groups, but there’s more room on her right than her left."

"But if you were casting the ideal Clinton challenger, Webb would definitely get a callback."

Yep, seems like they got this one figured out.

[MADem]

27. He might have been...had he campaigned!

Webb phoned that whole hot mess in...he barely showed up to debate! He sat on his ass after he declared, and didn't do much of anything. It was almost as though he thought his manly demeanor would be compelling to voters, and result in people coming to him, waving wads of cash, eager to kiss his ring, and when that didn't happen, he just said "Ehhh, work for it? Naaaaah. Eff it!"

Have to wonder just what he was thinking!!!

[restorefreedom]

47. i just assumed he had a book out

but since i have seen no book tour, i don't know what he was doing

[MADem]

49. Ha--I thought the same darn thing initially....

I really do wonder if he thought to himself, "Well, look at ME--I'm the McCain without the Bomb Bomb Iran, I'm smack dab in the middle, with plenty of testosterone and toughness....I'm the ultimate crossover candidate; why, they'll FLOCK to me~!!!!"

Of course, he didn't stop to think that he's QUIT--and more than once, too, and not just his jobs, but his spouses....and then, that rictus grin at the debate when he talked about how he killed that guy....EWWWW. I mean, there is just no need for that kind of conversation.

I think he misjudged his popularity!!

[restorefreedom]

63. yeah that continuous bragging about killing someone

creeped me out. not sure why he thought a military guy would be popular...i mean, we are all pretty much sick of war(s).

he seems to have a trumpian view of himself....legend in his own mind, as it were...

[NCTraveler]

75. Without almost immediatley talking about the release of a new book.

What he did left me scratching my head. A lot of things in politics make little sense. Rarely does it make no sense at all. I'm with you. Don't get it at all.

[restorefreedom]

77. yup. he is an enigma wrapped in a bayonet

ba da chaaaaaaa

[NCTraveler]

78. Truly bust out laughing.

I wish he stuck around. Many of his thoughts on the prison system are the best out there.

I'm still laughing. Thank you.

[restorefreedom]

79. my pleasure. i didn't know about his prison system ideas

too bad more people won't hear about them, then.

i guess he got bored, took his (gi joe) dolly and went home.

does anyone really know why he bothered?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. That was Harry Enten

And while he might get a pay check from Nate he is not Nate.

[Bradical79]

43. I think a better way to look at it as a Bernie supporter

is to look at how we're trending, and what (if anything) can be done to swing the numbers more in his favor.

His predictions have been accurate enough to take them at face value in my opinion.

[AZ Progressive]

25. Nate Silver is a political geek, he loves the establishment

[uponit7771]

29. What about the factual parts of his position? tia

[Blue_Adept]

34. Facts mean nothing in the face of love

or the fanaticism that you get around these parts these days.

[wildeyed]

71. No.

He loves the math. And it is all there. You can look at his methodology and accept it or not. His past performance has been good. He was very, very successful predicting the last Presidential Election. It is what it is.

And he is clear that he only does the NUMBERS. Look at the explanation of why you don't use his football predictions to bet against Vegas. He just runs numbers, but does not look at other factors like injury that definitely affect the game. His numbers are just a baseline. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introducing-nfl-elo-ratings/

Same with polls. He is using a predetermined formula. They produce numbers that are a baseline. They do not consider outside factors that may impact the race.

[aikoaiko]

41. This is not the Silver quote you're looking for.

Trump is currently kicking ass.



Bernie's chances may be less than Trump's, but Silver's comparison should be worrisome to HRC fans because of the implications of winning.

Of course, I realize that's not all he said and he's confident HRC will get the nomination.

[fleur-de-lisa]

52. Results of Alert on Post #37

Psst, Fairey is a Bernie supporter
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=977928

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

It's well known that Nate Silver is openly gay, but referring to him as a "fairy" is a homophobic slur. This troll needs to be zapped now!

JURY RESULTS

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:07 AM, and the Jury voted 4-3 to HIDE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: OFFS! Shepard Fairey is the artist who created the referenced image of Nate Silver, as well as the 'Hope" poster for Obama's candidacy (among many others) and yes, he is a Bernie Sanders supporter. How about educating yourself before making a ridiculous alert?!?
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Not sure what is really going on here
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Obvious troll is obvious.
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[marble falls]

53. Bum alert, in my opinion. I don't see the slur. Juror #1 got it right.

[fleur-de-lisa]

54. Yep, I was Juror #1 . . .

As soon as I saw the alert, I was pretty sure that Fairey was the artist and it took me about 10 seconds to confirm that by googling his name. If nothing else, the spelling of 'Fairey' vs 'Fairy' should have been a major clue!

[Ned_Devine]

56. No major clues with these idiots.

I'm sick to death of them

[philosslayer]

57. Ouch. That Berns.

[Fawke Em]

64. Angry American Voters: "We'll see about that." eom

[Alfresco]

73. Get on up, Nate.

[Phlem]

76. Of course.

Trump gets huge air time, Bernie, not much airtime at all.

Pretty simple, it's about the money.

[ronnykmarshall]

82. Nate Silver a prawn of the right wing

He is in the pockkkket of the KKKlinton machine.

He hates Bernie. I seen it.

He must be hated.