2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFirst New Hampshire Poll Of The New Year -PPP (D) HRC 47% (+3) SBS 44% (+2) MOM 3% (-5)
47% to 44% for Bernie Sanders, and 3% for Martin O'Malley. There's an
incredible divide between the Democrats and independents planning to vote in
the primary- Clinton leads Sanders 55/36 with Democrats, but Sanders almost
completely cancels that out with a 59/29 advantage among non-Democrats
planning to vote in the primary. That's just one of several big dividers in the
Democratic race- Clinton leads 51/38 with women while Sanders leads 50/42
with men, and Clinton leads 54/36 with seniors while Sanders is up 46/45 with
everyone else
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012
bunnies
(15,859 posts)I do love your persistence though.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)PPP projected a 2-point Obama victory and put him at the critical 50 percent mark, 50 to 48 percent over Romney.
As of early Wednesday, President Obama was leading the national popular vote by about 2.7 million votes, taking 50.1 percent support against Mitt Romney at 48.4 a difference of 1.7 points.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012
bunnies
(15,859 posts)Landlines are a thing of the past now more than ever.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)bunnies
(15,859 posts)I'd be shocked if she carried NH though. Just based on the feel of things here. Can't speak for everyone in my state though. Any things possible in NH.
Response to bunnies (Reply #5)
Name removed Message auto-removed
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)But I guess his website only counts if Enten is writing an article about how impossible it is for Bernie to win.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)I believe it was Great Nate, himself, who suggested a Sanders victory was improbable
Is there any chance Hillary isn't the Democratic nominee?
I think you would have to have some type of renewed scandal or health problem or something like that. I could see Bernie Sanders winning a few states. New Hampshire is still very close. But her chances have to be in the range of 90 [percent] to 95 percent. Trump has more of a chance than Bernie.
http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/nate-silver-trump-has-more-chance-bernie-beating-clinton-168776
Response to kenfrequed (Reply #2)
Name removed Message auto-removed
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Yes, that was an actual Enten article.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)It is remarkable he still has work in that field since most of his articles essentially has been: "Yeah 'X' but here is why Hillary will win everything anyways"
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)It will be a classic case of being right for the wrong reasons. Or put another way, "confusing strategy with outcome".
They don't drag Nate out of their ass otherwise.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)-litlbilly
I believe the CEO is Dean Debnam. Perhaps I am mistaken. If you have evidence to the contrary would you please adduce it.
Thank you in advance.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)brooklynite
(94,745 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)place, or thing.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)jkbRN
(850 posts)Public Policy Polling surveyed 515 likely Republican primary voters and 480 likely Democratic primary voters from January 4th to 6th. The margin of error is +/-4.3% for the Republicans and +/- 4.5% for the Democrats. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Thank you in advance.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4,860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3,952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are opt-in panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 22,517 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,753 phone recruits.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/methodology-2016-cbs-news-battleground-tracker/
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Especially considering that it's New Hampshire (a state that's not exactly representative of the country) and considering that it's Bernie's own "back yard".
Things are getting very exciting!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Why do you think he has having such a difficult time there?
I don't see Hillary struggling in New Jersey, Connecticut, Mississippi Tennessee, and Missouri.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)He's not perceived positively enough by a large portion of the country. And of the many who admire him and his "cause" they see Hillary as being the more capable candidate. Well rounded, knowledgeable, and competent... ready on day-1, as the saying goes.
(PRE-POST EDIT: I'd typed a few lines that expressed my opinion of Bernie and possible reasons that he faces such difficult challenges, but I just erased it. Actually, itt wasn't an ugly or unfair assessment, nor was it an attack or insult ... but you know how these things tend to go, DSB. I decided that the 6:1 risk of getting a hide was too great. ~~~ You'll just have to go from memory of things that I and others have already posted.)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Bill Clinton Has A Superpower, And Mastering It Can Make You Successful Beyond Belief
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)HRC looking good in Bernie's backyard! Impressive.
bunnies
(15,859 posts)I wish it were.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)it's over. Bye Bye Bernie.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)EOM
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)This poll has caused numerous instances of Hillary supporters telling each other that Bernie supporters are now really worried.
Personally I'm considerably happier with the race than I was a month ago, and I wouldn't bet a nickel on a Hillary win in either NH or Iowa at this point.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)But I am one of the few posters here who is actually willing to walk the talk
How about a small donation to the charity of the other's choice or Democratic Underground, say fifty bucks, should their candidate lose.
I will only bet on the outcome of the entire primary, not this or that state. Betting on the latter is akin to betting on the first quarter of the SuperBowl or the opening game of a MLB, NBA, or NHL series; anything can happen but the longer the series goes on the stronger or better team usually emerges.
PEACE
DSB
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)There are a couple of things that need to happen after NH for things to go completely the way I want them to, but an Iowa win (which I'd previously hoped for but not being totally convinced would happen) will turn it from a long shot into a genuinely open race. I now very much believe that Iowa and NH will turn out for Bernie. As for the whole primary I need to see the results from SC before I'm willing to make any longer term predictions.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)I am basing my prediction of the outcome that nothing will shake Hillary Clinton's non-white support, nothing...
I do not buy the notion that non-white voters are going to be swayed by the results from two of the nation's most homogeneous states, regardless of how they vote.
There are no parallels between Senator Sanders's 016 campaign and Barack Obama's 08 campaign. Polling showed African Americans were perfectly content to vote for Hillary Clinton until Barack Obama demonstrated his viability by winning a predominately white state. Once he proved his viability by winning IA African Americans embraced the chance to break the color barrier of the presidency by voting for him. Obviously, that impetus is lacking in this primary season
Also, Hillary Clinton's Hispanic support never wavered. She carried them 2-1 over Barack Obama.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I think you put far too much weight into the racial makeup of Iowa and New Hampshire. For a huge swathe of the electorate those wins will be processed as a series of news stories shouting about Bernie victories and 'Will clinton lose again?!'. Their worth is to do with momentum and media focus especially for lower information voters.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Bill Clinton lost IA and NH. It didn't hurt him. In fact the last five presidents have won the South Carolina primary while the last three presidents have lost the New Hampshire primary.
We were having a parallel conversation in another thread...It has nothing to do with certain groups not availing themselves of information and everything to do with this:
I know Bill isn't Hill but certain groups associate the name Clinton with good times.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)As for previous races, I don't remember the last time one nominee had quite this much expectation on them to win. Once that air of inevitability is gone, things change substantially.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Respectfully, that is subjective. What is not subjective is that African American, Latino, Asian american unemployment, and poverty was at its lowest level in a generation while African American and Hispanic home ownership was at its highest level in a generation.
The 90s wasn't so long ago that many voters have forgotten them.
As to HRC and the issues I give you this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251980110
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)So why exactly are the benefits automatically given? Because I could just as easy remind you that the deregulation that led to the largest loss of AA, Latino and American Asian wealth in modern times was also carried out under the Clinton administation, and that is a lot more easy remembered than the positives from the 90's.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)I see that argument made here with great frequency. Taken to it's logical conclusion it absolves President Bush of all complicity in The Great Recession. After all, as you suggest:
it was just the fruit of President Clinton's policies. Poor Dubya, Bill Clinton robbed him of his prosperity. I assure you most folks believe Bill Clinton was a good economic steward and his immediate predecessor and successor were poor ones. Bush Pere and Dubya own the recessions that preceded and succeeded Bill Clinton.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Starting several wars while cutting taxes, costing the country trillions.
The blame for the deregulation that led to the banks wild behavior and eventual crash however belongs to Reagan and Clinton.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)if Sanders does not win by double-digits in his own backyard, his already charred campaign will be reduced to crumbs.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Glad you got a chuckle, though.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Ignore.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Ground game.
Obama had a bit of a lead prior to the New Hampshire primary in 2008. Hillary's ground game shut down the polls.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)It will be interesting to see who can put up the best ground game this go around.
Overly
(11 posts)Their only possible victory is in jeopardy. Will it be a shutout? Stay tuned.
Your title "Panic in Bernieland" is perfect.
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)If she loses, it's still clear sailing for her in the next dozen or so primaries. If she does pull it off (along with IA), Sanders is done.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)RandySF
(59,264 posts)Sancho
(9,070 posts)If anything, the last few weeks have indicated a slight gain by Hillary after the last debate. If there was a mercy rule in politics, they would call this game. The media give Bernie some positives to make the news interesting and because the repub stations would do anything to defeat Hillary; but it's not a close contest right now. The best thing for Hillary would be to get lots of attention in a primary and win after a vigorous contest. The DNC seems to have orchestrated a good plan. Kudos to DWS. If Hillary wins the GE, DWS will get credit for a well-conceived election strategy to elect the first woman President.
State polls (from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html)
Iowa:
Gravis 12/18 - 12/21 418 LV 5.0 49 31 10 Clinton +18
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 459 LV 8.6 50 45 4 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13 526 LV 4.3 52 34 7 Clinton +18
Des Moines Register 12/7 - 12/10 404 LV 4.9 48 39 4 Clinton +9
FOX News 12/7 - 12/10 357 LV 5.0 50 36 5 Clinton +14
NH:
PPP (D) 1/4 - 1/6 480 LV 4.5 44 47 3 Clinton +3
ARG 12/20 - 12/20 600 LV 4.0 43 46 3 Clinton +3
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 458 LV 7.5 56 42 1 Sanders +14
Boston Herald 12/13 - 12/17 410 LV 4.8 48 46 2 Sanders +2
SC:
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 380 LV 9.7 67 31 2 Clinton +36
FOX News 12/5 - 12/8 364 LV 5.0 65 21 3 Clinton +44
Nevada:
Gravis 12/23 - 12/27 326 LV 5.0 50 27 1 Clinton +23
CNN/ORC 10/3 - 10/10 253 LV 6.0 50 34 0 Clinton +16
Mass:
Boston Globe/Suffolk 11/19 - 11/22 241 LV 6.3 54 29 3 Clinton +25
Emerson College 10/16 - 10/18 265 LV 6.0 59 25 3 Clinton +34
MN:
PPP (D) 7/30 - 8/2 426 RV 4.9 50 32 4 Clinton +18
Suffolk 4/24 - 4/28 100 LV 9.8 63 -- -- Clinton +48
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/20 373 RV 5.1 59 -- 1 Clinton +45
NC:
PPP (D) 12/5 - 12/7 555 RV 4.2 60 21 10 Clinton +39
Elon University 10/29 - 11/2 514 RV 4.3 57 24 3 Clinton +33
OK:
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6 11/12 - 11/15 389 LV 5.1 47 12 2 Clinton +35
The Oklahoman 10/19 - 10/22 350 RV 5.4 30 21 1 Clinton +9
LA:
WWL-TV/Clarus 9/20 - 9/23 57 22 7 2 1 0 Clinton +35
MI:
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell 9/18 - 9/18 538 LV 35 28 22 -- -- -- Clinton +7
MRG 9/9 - 9/14 600 LV 41 22 22 0 1 0 Clinton +19
FL:
Florida Atlantic University 11/15 - 11/16 297 LV 5.6 66 22 4 Clinton +44
Bay News 9/News 13 10/28 - 11/1 922 LV -- 66 24 3 Clinton +42
UNF 10/14 - 10/19 632 RV 3.9 55 16 0 Clinton +39
Missouri:
PPP (D) 8/7 - 8/9 352 LV 5.2 53 25 5 5 1 Clinton +28
OH:
Quinnipiac 9/25 - 10/5 40 21 19 1 0 0 0 Clinton +19
Quinnipiac 8/7 - 8/18 47 14 17 -- 0 1 0 Clinton +30
Quinnipiac 6/4 - 6/15 60 13 10 -- 1 0 0 Clinton +47
PPP (D) 6/4 - 6/7 61 -- 13 -- 2 1 2 Clinton +48
Quinnipiac 3/17 - 3/28 54 9 3 -- 3 2 -- Clinton +40
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 2/1 51 7 5 -- 1 0 -- Clinton +37
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)EOM
baldguy
(36,649 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)The final rounds of campaigning will make the difference.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)riversedge
(70,310 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)riversedge
(70,310 posts)Hillary Clinton lead Bernie Sanders by 3 points in New Hampshire: poll http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/7/hillary-clinton-lead-bernie-sanders-3-points-new-h/#.Vo6tkV9doZQ.twitter #p2 @HilaryforNH #nhpolitics #uniteblue
ohiolover
(5 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)makes sense...annoying that he wishes to run as a Dem even though he despises the Party, but a majority of the Dems don't want him, so he gets shoved down everyone's throat.