Hillary's lead vanishes! IBD TIPP: Hillary 43, BERNIE 39

[ram2008]

Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Nearly Vanishes

[quote]With just 21 days until the presidential primaries officially begin in Iowa, Hillary Clinton's support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, climbed six points to 39%.

As a result, Clinton's lead over Sanders, which had been 18 points, is now just 4 points.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/011116-789089-hillaryclinton-lead-nearly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm#ixzz3wwEXjSLB [/quote]

Oh wow, talk about timing, Bernie might just pull out the win, What a reversal!

[tecelote]

1. I feel sorry for Hillary but...

Bernie's going to win!

Just in time, America needs to take a hard left turn.

[Lans]

2. Expected

Imagine what the numbers would look like if he manages to win both Iowa and NH. Deja vu for the Clinton camp

[ram2008]

3. Warren could end the race

If Bernie wins Iowa and NH, Warren could effectively end the race if she endorses him right before SC/ says she's open to being VP. Sort of like the Kennedy endorsements in 08.

Or if she wants to take a bigger gamble, right before Iowa.

[brooklynite]

4. A northeastern liberal is going to swing votes in South Carolina?

Texas?

Ohio?

Seriously. the people who would be impressed by a Warren endorsement are already in Sanders' camp.

[ram2008]

5. Warren is a national figure

And probably the only few respected politicians left in the country and the progressive standard bearer. I have no doubt in my mind that if she were in the race now, she's be leading.

So yeah, she would swing votes in South Carolina. Bernie doesn't need to win it, he just needs to minimize his loss there.

[oberliner]

13. Half of all Democrats don't know who she is

Those that do are not generally located in South Carolina.

[JonLeibowitz]

17. So you are proud that Clinton is backed by low information voters who don't know of Warren?

[Cassiopeia]

26. That's the only kind of voter Clinton can aim for.

Low info or wealthy voters are her main targets.

[kath]

46. Bingo.

[CoffeeCat]

51. Or people who buy the "inevitability" schtick, but

pretty soon she won't have that going for her.

It's not going to be pretty.

I feel sorry for her.

[oberliner]

29. No such comment was made

Just that Elizabeth Warren's endorsement, whether of Sanders or of Clinton, will not have much impact in South Carolina.

Personally, I think Hillary and Bernie are both outstanding candidates.

[AgingAmerican]

34. You are essentially banking that South Carolina voters are ill informed

[CoffeeCat]

52. It's not that they're ill-informed

SC voters are like the rest of the country--the have not experienced the full brunt of both campaigns.

But, just like Iowa, they will.

And here's the clincher. Iowa is having to make this decision without Bernie winning any previous states. His support is rising (and hers is tanking) based solely on the vetting process.

When you've got a couple of wins--going into the next state, it gives you momentum and a very powerful edge.

Furthermore, Hillary's entire candidacy is banked on the "I'm inevitable" meme. If Bernie wins Iowa and NH, she's pretty much exposed and without her "I'm the most electable" talking point.

[oberliner]

55. Elizabeth Warren is a senator from Massachusetts

Thus, she is more well known in the northeast and particularly New England than in the south.

[oasis]

19. National figure? How many Americans stay glued to CNN?

[Jarqui]

6. For many, it won't matter where the candidate is from

- they'll go with the candidate they can trust.

Hillary may well be trying to be the most untrustworthy candidate ever elected president. And that's starting to look like it's going to be a really tough sell ....

[thesquanderer]

33. Yes, I think a Warren endorsement could help in those places

Remember, we're talking about the Democratic primaries here, and the choice--even in South Carolina, Texas, and Ohio as you say-- between Hillary and Bernie. A Warren endorsement would (a) get him an extra bunch of natonal press, increasing the awareness of his campaign and his Warren-like positions, (b) potentially increase his perception as a "viable" candidate among those who are familiar with Warren, and (c) if there were talk of Warren as potential VP, might even tempt those who otherwise are leaning toward Hillary in part because of her gender.

Remember, in the primaries, delegates are awarded proportionately. So it's not simply about winning. There is value even in losing by a smaller margin. If you lose a close enough election, you can actually end up with the same number of delegates as the winner!

[SoLeftIAmRight]

35. This is a very good point

The stupid south will support stupid people

It would be very sad if the south picks both the pug and Dem candidates.

In the general, all that southern support will mean nothing for a DEM.

[Fawke Em]

44. I'm in Tennessee and certainly not stupid.

You do realize there is stupid people in every region, right?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

47. I am from the south - so give me a little...

Can we agree that as a block the south does not vote well

I know there are great people back there - just too few - sad

[Fawke Em]

49. There's actually not just a "few."

It's just we are concentrated in the cities and gerrymandering kills our votes.

[artislife]

36. Didn't a ticket with two candidates from the same area win the national once?

I think one was from Tennesse and the other from Arkansas. They weren't well known then either.

[Nyan]

14. Oh that would be sweet...

[PatrickforO]

21. I kind of hope Warren stays in the Senate.

She's been really, really effective there. Far more effective than she'd be as Vice President.

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. Imagine what his numbers would look like had the corrupt corporate owned MSM actually covered

Bernie. Everyone should now understand why TPTB ordered the blackout. They knew how the voters would love Bernie. If he's doing this well with a media blackout, I'd say HRH is in big trouble.

Thank the Goddesses for the Internet!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[nxylas]

7. With a 5.1% margin of error

He could already be winning.

[Katashi_itto]

8. K&R!

[shiriu]

9. Wow, much faster than I expected.

[beam me up scottie]

10. Ah, now I see why the attacks on Bernie and his family have quadrupled today.

Go get em, Bernie, give em hell!

[A Simple Game]

16. Yes I anticipate lots of damage control and attacks. It should be a fun day for most of us. n/t

[beam me up scottie]

18. So far I counted 6 threads about Bernie the 'gun nut' and 3 attacking his wife.

And it's still early.

I love the smell of desperation in the morning.

[A Simple Game]

28. Smart move, look how well they worked in the past few weeks to stop the Bern. n/t

[Fawke Em]

45. That was the early indicator for me that the internals were showing

a Bernie surge.

I've also seen the "mostly white crowds" meme pop up again.

The flop-sweat predicts the polls.

[jalan48]

12. Great song and go Bernie!

[Zoonart]

15. Better yet - A Bowie song...

I DEMAND A BETTER FUTURE!

Go Bernie!

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[libdem4life]

57. RIP.

[Robbins]

20. Well

this pollster is know thrown under bus

we are basicly in the equilvent of december 2007 now since iowa caucuses were held in early january.

Bernie is stronger now than obama was in December 2007

I will maintain primary races are deceided by states not nationwide

[Uncle Joe]

22. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, ram.

[WillyT]

23. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Helen Borg]

24. Pooof! Hillary is so toast!

[dpatbrown]

25. The end!

The beginning of the end for Clinton.

[NJCher]

30. this is what happens when

a candidate does business with Smoke & Mirrors, Inc.


Cher

[SoapBox]

27. She's out of touch with the mainstream of America...

And it shows.

[OnlinePoker]

37. That's because she's never been a part of it. n/t

[AzDar]

31. K & R

[geek tragedy]

32. .

[still_one]

38. Investers Business Daily. As a paper it is a rag. Whether there is validity in these values or not

I will hold judgement until I see if the trend of other pollsters confirm it.

[bvf]

42. It's been around for over 30 years.

And it's "Investor's Business Daily."

What makes you call it a "rag"?

It's been around in one form or another since the 80's.

I could be wrong, but I don't think financial-advice publications last that long without a solid following and a decent track record.

[still_one]

50. I know what it is, and it is a rag. The WSJ is the goto business paper, and actually

minus the editorials the WSJ news and business stories are quite good

I stand by my comments regarding the paper. Whether the poll has validity or is an outlier we will know in the next few days

[bvf]

53. I still recall, nearly 40 years ago, a journalism prof of mine

practically making the WSJ required reading, calling it unmatched in the excellence of its reporting and the quality of its writing. I came to agree, but none of this has squat to do with my question.

All you did was repeat the epithet you leveled at IBD, which doesn't really explain anything. Why do you consider it a rag--because it's not the WSJ?

Does it have anything to do with their recent poll?

[still_one]

59. No, because it's reporting is shallow. I haven't read it for at

Least 20 years, but based on my past impressions it had very little substance

My reaction is based on my experience where I signed up for a promotional subscription. And found it worthless. Of course I was basing it at the time to the wsj

Whether the poll is representative it might be but I want to see other pollsters confirm

[peacebird]

39. Beautiful!

[wilsonbooks]

40. Such great news. The worm has turned.

When Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire this is going to turn into a rout.

[randome]

41. Has the definition of 'vanished' changed since I was last here?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

[kath]

48. You do grasp the concept of "margin of error", don't you?

[randome]

54. Yes. It does not mean the lead has 'vanished'.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

[artislife]

58. Would you like the word plummeted instead?

or these?

collapse
crash
declines
decreases
descend
dip
dive
drop
nose-dive
plunge
sink
skids
tumble
downturn
dump
precipitate
stoop

[JoePhilly]

63. "Was it over when the Gernams bombed Pearl Harbor??"

Forget it ... their rolling!

[Gawdless Pinko Lib]

43. Sorry for Duplicating

I wasn't aware that the poll had already been posted here.

[azmom]

56. Huge K&R

[NurseJackie]

60. What's the margin of error?

[ram2008]

61. It's right at the end

5.1%

[quote]For the party rankings, the poll included 414 registered Republicans or those who lean Republican, with a margin of error for the GOP results of +/- 4.9 percentage points. There were 378 Democrats or Democratic leaners surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.

The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.[/quote]

[pa28]

62. It's happening. Oh yes it is.

Now get ready for the Clinton smear machine.

[thereismore]

65. With the ARG poll in IA: Sanders 47% Clinton 43%, this shit just got real.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/iadem.html