Bernie clearly has the momentum going into the caucuses. That is the Holy Grail in my opinion. If you've got the winds shifting in your direction, that really helps to bring in the holdouts who wait to make a decision. Look at it this way, people who made up their mind months (or even a few weeks ago) most likely decided that Hillary was "inevitable." The Iowans who are making up their minds now, see Sanders surging and they also see his huge rallies and the enthusiasm for him. Hillary is no longer inevitable in their minds. And many of them are breaking for Bernie.
Sanders crowds are huge in Iowa. Even Independence Iowa, a town of a several thousands, had 2,000 people attend Bernie's latest rally. Compare that with Clinton's Toledo, Iowa event--a couple hundred showed. I've attended one other Clinton rally in downtown Des Moines. Maybe 350 were there. In 2007, at the same venue in Des Moines, she had at least 2,000.
I think there's some Hillary fatigue happening here. I also think the second that Sanders started winning in some Iowa polls, that sparked additional Clinton losses. The more that inevitability meme evaporates, the more vulnerable she is. Her campaign has no clear message. No message of hope. She banked it all on her "inevitability" and her experience. That's not very exciting and experience in a corrupt system is not attractive to Iowa caucus goers--who tend to be fairly liberal.
I don't think it's going to be a Bernie blowout, but I sense that he's going to win. She has a decent ground game, lot of support from the Iowa establishment and endorsements. And she does have some enthusiastic supporters and pockets of the state (mainly rural, more conservative areas) that she will win handily.
But generally speaking, when you look at the Iowa map--Sanders will win the larger cities by significant margins. Des Moines and the metro area hold 18 percent of all caucus votes in the state. That's huge. Des Moines is in Polk County, the most populous Iowa county, and this county and its many precincts almost always trend liberal. Due to an influx of younger people moving into the downtown area, it's more liberal than ever (more than 2008). Also, the larger cities (Iowa City, Ames, Cedar Falls) are college towns. Bernie has those in the bag. Bernie has also made moves in the rural/more conservative areas that Clinton won in 2008. I was really surprised by that, but he's been campaigning in Sioux City and other northwestern/western Iowa cities and towns--and he should have some good numbers there.
I also think he's got an advantage because of the caucus dynamics. We have 1680 Democratic precincts in Iowa. Each will hold their own caucus. If O'Malley doesn't reach a 15 percent viability threshold at a caucus, his voters must join another candidate camp--or sit out the race. I rarely see anyone sit out a race. They join another camp. MOM supporters will overwhelmingly gravitate to Sanders (according to the stats I've seen). MOM is polling at 5 percent in Iowa, so it is highly unlikely that he'll be viable in the overwhelming majority of precincts.
As far as those younger voters, whenever I'm in our local Bernie office--it's packed with younger voters. I couldn't even walk in there last night, it was so packed. These younger voters know what everyone is saying about them--that they won't show up and caucus. I think they're hell bent on proving everyone wrong. They've really attached themselves to Bernie and I have no doubt that they'll show up. They're out canvassing in 9 degree temps! Why would they not caucus?
I've been phone banking and am now canvassing. Oh, the stories I could tell. Great response on the phone. We're finding plenty of Sanders supporters that leave us feeling confident going into the caucuses. I'm calling in my very conservative suburb, so this is a good sign. While canvassing, I'm also getting great responses. They have me canvassing some Independents and last night I found two Republican-leaning Independents who will caucus for Bernie--because they are so disillusioned and upset about the Republican clown car. They like Bernie, don't like Clinton and decided that they wanted to help Bernie. They're that adamant against Clinton. I do find people like this (like the guy who still has his Fred Thompson bumper sticker) who may caucus for Bernie too. They're not common, but they're out there. The vast majority of Bernie supporters/caucus goers are very enthusiastic Democrats who are Progressive and very happy to see a politician who will finally serve their interests and really change things.
Also of note is that 42 percent of registered Iowa voters are Independents. There will be an untold number of Indies who show up to caucus and they will change their registration (it takes 5 minutes) and participate in the Iowa caucuses. This is standard in the Iowa caucuses. Bernie polls extremely well with Independents. Hillary does not. The last stat I saw had Hillary under 10 percent with Independents nationwide. Given that this is such a huge voting block in Iowa--and that Indies show up in big numbers in the Iowa caucuses--this bodes very well for Bernie.
I have a busy week. I was just notified that a couple of Bernie supporters are staying at our house for a few days. They wanted to help Bernie's campaign. I initially assumed that this was a couple from Iowa. They'll be canvassing day and night for Bernie. They fly in Thursday and will stay until caucus day. Turns out, they're from California. Amazing, right?
Nothing is for certain, but I think things look and feel pretty good for Bernie in Iowa.
A Quinnipiac Poll should come out this week. Their methodology is sound. That should tell us how Bernie's mo is Iowa is holding out. Also, the absolute "gold standard" of polling--the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll will be released this Saturday--two days before the caucus. Look for that.
= new reply since forum marked as read
