Seniors favor GOP when HRC is Dem nominee

[Divernan]

This is particularly significant since senior voters turn out in disproportionately HIGH numbers at the polls, compared to younger age demographic groups. I'm wondering why older voters reject HRC - is it perhaps because they lived through so much of the disappointment and ugliness of all the Clinton scandals? All of that negative baggage which will be thoroughly rehashed during the campaign?
http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/slideshows/states-with-the-best-older-voter-turnout
States with the Best Older Voter Turnout
By Emily Brandon
March 19, 2012 | 8:43 a.m. EDT
(iStockphoto)
Senior citizens are much more likely than younger people to show up on election day to cast ballots. Nationwide, 61 percent of people age 65 and older voted in the 2010 election, compared to 46 percent of all citizens

http://morningconsult.com/polls/bring-the-vote-home-poll-seniors-lean-toward-republicans-in-2016/

Bring the Vote Home Poll: Seniors Favor GOP When Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Nominee
Morning Consult Polling | June 10, 2015

Morning Consult conducted a national survey on behalf of Bring the Vote Home of 3,904 registered voters 65 years old and over on April 27- May 5, 2015 and June 5-8, 2015. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of ±2%

Key Takeaways:
Seniors Favor GOP when Hillary Clinton is Democratic Nominee

When placed head to head, seniors chose Scott Walker (45%) over Hillary Clinton (36%), and Jeb Bush (44%) over Hillary Clinton (41%) for President.

Key Data:
A plurality of seniors (44%) would vote for a Republican candidate if the 2016 election in their Congressional district were held today, while 35 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate
More than one-third of female seniors (36%) and exactly one in four male seniors chose ISIS as the most important issue facing the country

(Ironically, I came across this pollster as the link in the OP of one of HRC's supporters! So they can't be heard to trash the source! http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141118279)

[still_one]

1. I don't know enough about "Morning Consult", but there was a story posted yesterday using it as a

link which really makes me question their agenda/bias.

Here is that link, which is the link you posted to justify that since this was posted by a "pro_Hillary" poster, it implies morning consult is an impeccable source. I don't agree.

http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire/

Notice they go out of their way to trash Obama. At least for me, morning consult doesn't seem an uninterested party.

Are they discussing issues of Medicare and Social Security, and which party seniors think would be better?

They indicate that seniors are more focused on foreign affairs, and I say that is bullshit. Scott Walker is the leader in that Democratic against Hillary, and I say more bullshit.

[Divernan]

5. Not saying it's impeccable; just that HRC-ers can't trash it as source

since they're relied on it.

Where on earth did you come up with the "impeccable" interpretation?

[still_one]

10. I have No problem with that, just questioning morningconsult.com. Michael Ramlet the founder was

director of health policy at a conservative enterprise:

"Ramlet first established himself as the director of health policy at the conservative American Action Forum, which is led by former Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Holtz-Eakin. At American Action, Ramlet provided analyses of ObamaCare’s impact on the healthcare system and the wider economy. Now, he runs the policy consulting practice at Purple Strategies. "

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/315837-100-people-to-watch-this-fall-?page=0%2C55

Doesn't mean the analysis is wrong, I just wonder about its bias. I am very suspect about Politico also. Politico founders were ex-Reagan administration people. It is more difficult to find information about the background of morning consult.com, though they do claim they are non-partisan.

It is very hard for me to believe that Scott Walker is that much more popular among seniors than the other republicans. I have seen various posts from folks from Wisconsin maintain that except for the recall, the most likely reason Walker won multiple times is because it wasn't a presidential year. I am not sure if I agree with that insight, but I wonder how many people outside of Wisconsin know anything about Walker?

That is why asking control questions, such as "which party do you believe is more supportive of Social Security or Medicare", would make that polling more relevant to me, since those issues, more than foreign affairs, would seem to be more important to seniors. So based on this poll I would be led to conclude that seniors dislike of Hillary is much more important than social security and medicare, and I question that.

It doesn't mean that seniors would support Hillary over Bernie, but it sure would help me understand where seniors are coming from.

We have been told, by other polls, that seniors are more conservative voters. I don't know, but intuitively I feel a senior living in Florida would be more Conservative than in California,.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. I think it's because Bernie eats Republican's lunch in a way she doesn't.

The triangulation and bending in the wind simply to appeal to voters is something older people see through more easily, simply because they've lived through so many politicians. They may not always like Bernie's positions or policies, but he's got honesty and straightforwardness in spades. They know where he stands, because he's been true to himself for half a century, not pandering for power. And that can bite into otherwise Republican votes in a way someone who simply chases the prevailing political winds never will.

[chillfactor]

3. sorry but as a senior I resent the OP....

I will support whomever is the Democratic nominee...and just how reliable is this Morning Consult.....never heard of then..

[Divernan]

8. Here's link & info on the polling group

. Morning Consult polling has been cited by over 100 media outlets, including: Bloomberg, CQ Roll Call, NBC News, Time Magazine, Business Insider, Fortune, New Republic, USA Today, BuzzFeed, Fox News, Politico, Wall Street Journal, CNBC, MSNBC, Reuters, Washington Post, Colbert Report, Morning Joe, The Hill and Yahoo News.
http://morningconsult.com/about/

[still_one]

11. and that is fine. The only question I have is do seniors really believe that republicans are better

than some Democrats on Medicare and Social Security?

Right now as I see it Bernie has just started to introduce himself to the American people, and on the whole I think he is getting good reviews in general. He is starting to get the visibility he needs through the media, so I suspect that will only help his momentum

The problem many of us on DU have is that we are mostly of progressive thought, and I don't know anymore more where the country stands, especially with all the fiasco we have been through under republican control, it is hard for me to believe that republicans can win elections.

[Divernan]

13. Seniors are VERY savy about SS & Medicare; it remains a 3rd rail re their votes.

Obama's Catfood Commission history may have influenced the senior vote in the last election and pushed seniors toward the GOP.

President Obama’s Deficit Commission is all smoke and mirrors. Its members are making a big show of laboring over "painful" choices and considering all options in their quest to bring down the deficit. But inside the Beltway everyone knows what’s going to happen: The commission will reduce the deficit on the backs of the old and the poor, through cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Some opponents have taken to calling it the Cat Food Commission, since that’s what its victims will be forced to eat once the commission gets done slashing away at their modest entitlements.

In fact, the true intent of the Deficit Commission was evident before it was even formed. That intent was only driven home when Obama appointed as its co-chair Alan Simpson, who is well known for voicing, in the most colorful terms, what Paul Krugman calls the "zombie lie" that old-age entitlements will soon bankrupt the country

.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2010/08/obamas-cat-food-committee-alan-greenspan-and-dancing-grannies-medicare

[still_one]

15. I would hope so, but to consider voting for any of the running republicans if the Democratic nominee

is HRC as indicated in the OP made me question just how important of an issue it is with seniors.

I agree the Obama Administration appointment of Bowles and Simpson was a disaster

[Scuba]

21. Maybe they know about Hillary and Pete Peterson.

[Enthusiast]

22. Maybe that's it.

[LonePirate]

4. Is this a bash Hillary thread in the pro-Bernie group?

Where is the Bernie component or content here?

[Divernan]

7. HRC-ers argue that only HRC could beat the GOP come November,

and therefore even if Bernie wins the primary, he could not win in November. I posted this link/survey as evidence that the HRC inevitability premise is faulty.

And that is the
Bernie component.

[still_one]

16. As a private group for the most part they governed by rules of the group supportive of a person or

issue, so there is not a problem with posts critical of Hillary, just as there would not be a problem with posts critical of Bernie in the Hillary group.

[LonePirate]

18. Silly me. I expected Bernie to be mentioned in one of the articles or links

I didn't see Bernie's name mentioned anywhere in the links provided by the OP so I can't make the connection to Bernie performing better with Seniors than Hillary (something a casual reader might infer from the thread title). That made me wonder about the motive of a post in the Bernie group that had nothing directly to do with him.

I am not trying to provoke an argument. I'm just trying to understand why this was posted here.

[still_one]

19. got it, I suspect your inference thoughts are what some would assume

[BillZBubb]

6. As a group, seniors favor the republicans.

They are a big part of the repug base. It doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate, the repugs will win the senior vote.

Early onset dementia is a big help to the repugs.

[Divernan]

9. Got any data to back up your statement?

I've been the Judge of Elections for 10 years. My polling place is based in a high rise residential apartment building for seniors, surrounded by condos and single family homes in a retirement community. Needless to say, the seniors there are quite comfortable financially. The majority of the voter registrations are Democrats, and the last 10 new voters I registered there (people who had just moved into the area) were 9 Democrats, 1 Independent and ZERO, I repeat, ZERO Republicans. In fact 2 of the registrations were changing their party registration from Republican to Democrat.

And speaking as a politically active, life-long Democrat and senior citizen myself, I find your comment about early onset dementia to be really snotty and age-biased. Not to mention, insulting to both Bernie and Hillary, who are both seniors.

[Divernan]

12. Here, I did some research for you. (You're welcome!)

A long, detailed analysis & discussion from Gallup, a very respected pollster, from March 2014. Basically it boils down to that seniors were predominantly either Democrats or Independent leaning toward Democrats until around 2007. There has been a shift in party alignment among seniors in the past 2 presidential elections. Whether it is permanent, or race-related and/or Catfood Commission related remains to be seen.

Senior citizens' changing political preferences are also apparent in their recent presidential vote preferences, according to Gallup's final pre-election polls. Senior voters favored the Democratic candidate in each election from 1992 through 2004, including a 17-point margin for Bill Clinton in 1992, the highest among age groups. In each of the last two elections, by contrast, seniors were the only age group to support the Republican candidate over Barack Obama.

Race appears to be a significant factor in seniors' Republican realignment, because whites have become more solidly Republican in recent years, seniors are overwhelmingly white, and white seniors today are Republican-aligned, while white seniors in the past were Democratic-aligned.

The timing of the shift raises the possibility that it is motivated by recent events that have more closely linked race and political party than was the case in the past, including the mid-2000s debate over immigration, and the election and presidency of Barack Obama. Because seniors did not show an outright preference for the Republican Party until 2010, Obama's second year in office, it may not have been just Obama's race per se, but his policies and performance in office that has turned seniors "red." (Note the infamous, let's cut Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, Catfood Commission was in 2010!)

Once Obama leaves office, his influence on party preferences among racial and age groups may become clearer, if he is succeeded by a white president from either party. Should the current trends in party preference by age persist, it suggests a political realignment among seniors has taken place. If the current trends by age shift in the other direction, it suggests the shift was temporary, likely tied to the Obama era.

Survey Methods

Results are based on yearly aggregated data from multiple day Gallup telephone polls conducted between 1995 and 2013. Each yearly aggregate is based on a minimum of 18,000 interviews with adults age 18 and older.

For results based on the total sample of national adults in any given year, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.

For results based on the total sample of Americans age 65 and older in any given year, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.

Party Affiliation, Americans Age 65 and Older, 1992-2013

Party Affiliation, Americans Aged 18-64, 1992-2013


March 24, 2014
U.S. Whites More Solidly Republican in Recent Years



http://www.gallup.com/poll/168083/seniors-realigned-republican-party.aspx

[BillZBubb]

14. Thanks. That is interesting.

Maybe it is a race issue. That's sad if true. If enough seniors are that bigoted, could their also be a gender problem? Maybe the old fogies don't want a woman as president either.

[still_one]

17. There are a lot of seniors that depend on Social Security and Medicare. I would observe if that

were the case it sure would be voting against their interests as I see it

[BillZBubb]

20. The republicans have done a good job of muddying the waters on SS and MC.

They've got old TPers saying "Get the government's hands off my Medicare (and/or Social Security). Loony, but that's what they've done.

Too many people vote against their interests and against the country's interest. They vote repug.