Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary and become the 45th President of the United States
An honest man is very dangerous when a frustrated people have been fed platitudes for decades.
Earlier this week a CNN / WMUR poll in the state of New Hampshire showed Hillary Clinton at 43% with Sen. Bernie Sanders trailing closely at 35%. With a margin of error of 5.2%, Clinton and Sanders are in a statistical dead heat.
While that is telling in itself, the favorability ratings (p. 14) are even more interesting. This poll is tracking favorability of likely Democratic voters from July 2014 until June 2015. Last July, 51% of New Hampshire Democrats either did not know who Bernie Sanders was or not enough to give an opinion. Now, this latest poll shows that only 16% of NH Democrats do not know Sen. Sanders, a drop of 35%.
The intriguing part is how this has affected his favorability ratings. Sen. Sanders' unfavorability nudged from 10% to 11%. Remarkably, his favorability jumped from 37% to 66%, a 29% increase. The neutral rating, those who still hadn't formed an opinion but were now familiar with the candidate, rose from 2% to 8%.
This poll reveals a simple truth: nearly every New Hampshire Democrat that discovered Bernie Sanders likes the guy and there is a direct correlation between his favorability numbers and why he is now in a statistical tie.
A year ago, a full 51% of Democratic voters in Bernie's neighboring state didn't know who he was. It's not a stretch to think that number is likely much higher outside of New England, perhaps over 75%.
Sensing panic, the Clinton surrogates are now trying to sell the idea that Clinton is more electable as a means to dissuade support for Bernie's campaign. Not only does that seem suspect when you consider the contrast the between the two candidates, but there is empirical evidence and, based on Howard Dean's statements on Morning Joe this past week, polling data from Vermont that shows Sanders does very well with conservatives and independents in that state.
Another point to consider is that when Sanders first ran for reelection as Mayor of Burlington in 1983, voter turnout nearly doubled that year. If Bernie Sanders is able capture enough of that magic to mobilize even 10% more turnout in this election, we're not only talking about the presidency but a Democratic Congress as well.
Hillary can do none of that. She's been highly visible for 23 years and Americans have, for the most part, formed their opinions about the Secretary. There is no upswell of support on the horizon for Mrs. Clinton. At best, she beats the GOP candidate by a few percentage points and enters Washington with an intractable Congress. Bernie has a chance to mobilize voters that are disenchanted with the current political system and would otherwise stay at home rather than vote for a Hillary - (GOP Clown) ticket. And have no doubt, that represents tens of millions of potential voters.
We need to bear in mind that this thing is more than just the presidency. Even the best president will not be effective if Congress remains the same, let's not fool ourselves. We've seen it over the past seven years and does anyone truly believe that the GOP will be more willing to move forward on progressive issues with Hillary Rodham Clinton at the helm? I think not.
Want to mobilize conservatives? Then Hillary is the choice. Want to oust this reactionary Congress while capturing millions of conservatives that for decades have been voting against their own economic interests? Then the choice is clear, it's the Independent Senator from Vermont.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/28/1397368/-Bernie-Sanders-will-beat-Hillary-and-become-the-45th-President-of-the-United-States
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