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n2doc

(47,953 posts)
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 07:41 PM Apr 2016

Clinton Delegate Lead Down to 194, Even as Dramatic Miscounting of Delegates by Media Continues

1,299 to 1,105.

That’s the “insurmountable” delegate lead Hillary Clinton has over Bernie Sanders.

And there are still 1,674 pledged delegates yet to be awarded in twenty primaries and caucuses to be held over the next two months; scores of up-for-grabs delegates yet to be decided via state and county Democratic conventions; and hundreds and hundreds of super-delegates to be wooed by both candidates in Philadelphia this summer — with not a single one of them having officially committed themselves to anybody.

That’s the cold, hard truth — the indisputable numeric data of the current election cycle — but it’s not the story Americans are being told.

Why?

Well, put it this way: say what you will about Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com — for instance, that its projections for Bernie Sanders in primaries and caucuses have routinely been low, a fact which sits uncomfortably beside its penchant for publishing articles marginalizing Sanders and his supporters as quixotic — but they’ve consistently had the most accurate delegate counts for the Democratic Primary race.

And even they can’t keep up with Sanders.


more

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clintons-delegate-lead-do_b_9711160.html

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Clinton Delegate Lead Down to 194, Even as Dramatic Miscounting of Delegates by Media Continues (Original Post) n2doc Apr 2016 OP
A loss for Hillary Tuesday would be a collapse of epic proportions! RepubliCON-Watch Apr 2016 #1
Oh yeah! When she loses Tuesday, her campaign is over. Bernie will have momentum going into PA., CT. in_cog_ni_to Apr 2016 #6
That would be epic indeed! Basement Beat Apr 2016 #10
Please call if you can! Even for an hour!! Remind voters that Bernie beats Trump by a larger margin jillan Apr 2016 #12
Thank You For Sharing This Good News cantbeserious Apr 2016 #2
!!!! grasswire Apr 2016 #3
Jesus. thereismore Apr 2016 #14
But...inevitability...it's her turn...first woman President...and stuff. Snarkoleptic Apr 2016 #4
you and me both - so that's two outliers eom LiberalElite Apr 2016 #7
Three Sweet Freedom Apr 2016 #11
Hey! Three's a crowd!! LiberalElite Apr 2016 #13
Thanks for the article. Shared. leftcoastmountains Apr 2016 #5
This race is so far from over (unless we allow MSM to call it again.) sorechasm Apr 2016 #8
Let's not get too exited paulthompson Apr 2016 #9
 

RepubliCON-Watch

(559 posts)
1. A loss for Hillary Tuesday would be a collapse of epic proportions!
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 07:44 PM
Apr 2016

That would derail any viable campaign. Can't wait!!!

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
6. Oh yeah! When she loses Tuesday, her campaign is over. Bernie will have momentum going into PA., CT.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:03 PM
Apr 2016

DE., MD. and when in CA....he'll trounce her. Oregon is Bernie's also - BIG TIME.

I can't wait either! That should shut the corrupt corporate owned MSM up! They won't be able to spin anything after Tuesday.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Basement Beat

(659 posts)
10. That would be epic indeed!
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:28 PM
Apr 2016

I really didn't get back into DU since the Michigan election (where I vote) and I'm waiting for another huge upset. Heck if Sanders comes within single digits, this will be insane!

jillan

(39,451 posts)
12. Please call if you can! Even for an hour!! Remind voters that Bernie beats Trump by a larger margin
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:49 PM
Apr 2016

than Hillary does

We need this win.

Snarkoleptic

(6,002 posts)
4. But...inevitability...it's her turn...first woman President...and stuff.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 07:54 PM
Apr 2016

Personally, I want our first female President to be someone who is a populist change agent, but I'm prolly an outlier.

sorechasm

(631 posts)
8. This race is so far from over (unless we allow MSM to call it again.)
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:16 PM
Apr 2016

This means that Clinton’s delegate lead has dropped by 24 in just the last two weeks, and in events barely covered by the media in four of the nation’s fifty states. If similar events were to occur at even a handful of the other 46 state party conventions, Clinton’s lead, even outside any remaining primaries and caucuses, could be greatly imperiled.

Seems newsworthy, doesn’t it? Cutting 24 delegates off Clinton’s 200-plus delegate lead in just four states and 14 days, with two months left in the primary season, twenty primaries and caucuses left, and many states that have already held primaries and caucuses still planning to hold precisely the sort of county conventions that have already netted Sanders so many new delegates in so little time?

Apparently not.

So what’s that new delegate count again?

1,299 to 1,105.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
9. Let's not get too exited
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:19 PM
Apr 2016

I just posted the below in the Primaries forum. We need to stay grounded in reality and not make up more favorable numbers:


I'm a Sanders supporter, but Green Papers has the best numbers. I just checked, and they have Sanders with a 41 to 25 lead in Colorado, which is a change of 2 delegates in Sanders' favor that happened yesterday. So when they say Clinton leads by 210 delegates, I believe them.

Still, this article has a good point that most media outlets are reporting bad numbers:

ABC: 244
Fox News: 244
RealClearPolitics: 244
CNN: 229
New York Times: 220

Check it yourself:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

EDIT:

I just noticed that Green Papers hasn't changed their numbers in Nevada, and it's been widely reported that Sanders picked up two delegates there.

So it turns out that 538.com has the best numbers, and Clinton has a 206 delegate lead.

It looks like Seth Abramson was off by one in Colorado, off by two in Missouri, and didn't realize the 206 number already included the two delegate change in Nevada, so those got counted twice. So that's five, which makes a mistaken swing of 10 delegates. I'm not sure where he got the other delegate wrong.

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