Math Question: 5.3 mil Dem voters in the 2012 California primary, out of 7.4m registered Dems, so...

[Mudcat]

... assuming at least 5.3 million vote in the 2016 primary, what would the numbers from California alone need to be to completely erase the remaining front-loaded/South-heavy 2 million or so popular votes in Clinton's "insurmountable lead"?

What is the likelihood of even more Dem voters showing up this time, as CA catches Bern Fever (like every other state this cycle)? Win lose or draw, he usually outperforms early polling by 20-30%, often a lot more.

[Bernin4U]

1. CA has 475 pledged delegates up for grabs

Makes no difference if 5 million people show up to vote, or 5 thousand people. Either way it's still 475 delegates to be awarded, distributed proportionally.

If you look at WA State, you'll see that "popular vote" is meaningless. We are barely factored into it, because "popular vote" is irrelevant (and the numbers not even published). Caucus states vs primary states are apples and oranges.

[cloudbase]

2. He'd need 50% plus one,

plus two million on top of that to erase the popular vote deficit. As pointed out in the post above, though, popular vote totals mean nothing. One only need win a majority in each state (in theory; in practice, we're finding out that isn't quite the case.)