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1 in 273 trillion chance
From Richard Charnin:
Probability of 24% exit poll discrepancy
.................Sanders Clinton Margin
Recorded ...36%..... 64%......28%
Exit poll.......48%..... 52%......4%
Prob = 0.00%= 3.66E-15 or 1 in 272,945,431,961,848
That's 1 in 273 trillion!
Prob =1-normdist(0.64,0.52,0.03/1.96,true)
Bernie True Vote = 48% plus X%+ Y%. HE WON. We just have to see how many votes were flipped (X) and registrations dropped (Y ).
https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin?fref=nf
NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/ny-democratic-primary-your-forecast/#comments
3 replies
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