Prediction Bernie will win the White House

[wilsonbooks]

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/my-prediction-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-white-house.html


Snip

On May 12th, I presented my analysis of the polling as of that time, headlining, “The Early Signs of Whom The Next U.S. President Will Likely Be: Presidential Polls Look Confusing Regarding Bernie, But Downright Bad Regarding Hillary & All Republicans.” Based on the net-favorability ratings of candidates in the first poll that had really meaningful results on that most important of all factors (which poll had just been published), and also based on the latest available reliable poll of Americans’ ideological preferences (which had been taken in 2011, but that’s okay because ideology changes only very slowly), I concluded that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders was likely to surprise on the upside at the start of his contest, and that, “Sanders would probably be able to crush any Republican except perhaps Rand Paul, if he were to win the Democratic primaries.” He is already surprising on the upside (though pundits haven’t yet caught on that Hillary’s a dud), and so I am now predicting that Sanders will win, first, the Democratic nomination, and then the White House. But, first, to summarize:

The crucial net favorabilities were shown and documented in that May 12th article to be outright terrible for every candidate except Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders; they were merely bad for Walker and Rubio; and they were probably marginally good for Sanders, but the latest poll hadn’t even included Sanders’s name, and so for him I extrapolated from ideologically the only candidate, who had been named, who was at all similar to Sanders ideologically, and this was Elizabeth Warren; and she had a slightly positive net favorability rating, which was by far the best of any of the named candidates (either male or female). Based on information that I’ve been provided access to, she will not be entering the contest, and Senator Sanders will be the only progressive candidate running in the Democratic primaries.

The 2011 ideological poll showed that of the five ideological orientations that were named, the one with the highest net-favorability — the ratio of “positive” to “negative” ratings — by the American public, was “Progressive,” at 67%/22%, or 3.05; and the second-highest was “Conservative,” at 62%/30%, or 2.07. Like Senator Warren, Senator Sanders is one of the U.S. Senate’s three leading (if not the Senate’s only three) progressives. He clearly represents the most-widely-shared ideology: progressivism. If he wins the Democratic nomination, then the nation will be in for its first clear ideological choice since 1932 in a two-major-Party contest between a progressive Democrat versus a conservative Republican. That time it was FDR versus Herbert Hoover.

What I am seeing right now, which is the first time that things have looked clear enough for me to make a prediction in the U.S. Presidential contest, is the likelihood that the next President of the United States will be Bernie Sanders. The reasons for that prediction have been summarized here, based on the documentation that’s in the sources that have been linked-to here. Those linked articles contain the basic data that I consider, on my standard best-evidence basis, to be determinative, at this stage in the development of the 2016 U.S. Presidential campaign.

[RoccoR5955]

1. I have been saying so all along

Bernie Sanders is our next president. The president we deserve after so many bad years of conservative trickle down garbage.

[RufusTFirefly]

2. Mebbe so. But they will undoubtedly try to "scream" him

A la Dr. Dean.
He needs to be ready for the full-bore corporate media smear campaign.
Make no mistake. It's coming. And it will be nasty.

[SoapBox]

4. And when they do...

I'm thinking he may hit it head on, like he did at the beginning of the Madison rally ( regarding the RePuke billboard).

Instead of cowering in a corner, hopefully he will call them out (and man, do they hate being exposed).

[Art_from_Ark]

5. I really hope that Bernie will continue to be

"Kicking ass, with class"

[wilsonbooks]

3. Tonights Ed Show

http://wegoted.com/2015/07/podcast-228-bernie-sanders-draws-huge-crowd-in-madison/

[SheilaT]

6. I so hope you are right.

[nxylas]

7. He'd better stay away from grassy knolls if he does

Our owners are not going to take a sudden outbreak of democracy lying down.

[BrotherIvan]

9. I'm really afraid of that too

He's talking about taking away their money and their power and they will not part with it gladly.

[merrily]

12. and small planes. And the dimly lit ends of subway platforms.

Well, anywhere Kevin Spacey is, really.

[nxylas]

13. I was going to post "small planes"

Then I remembered...he'd have Air Force One!

[merrily]

14. not while he's campaigning.

[roguevalley]

8. I pray everyday for him and his efforts. He is the sword that is going to slay the

dragon of indifference and malignant egotism that is pushing us to the brink. There is a feeling in me that I thought had died out in 2000. I agree with the OP's posting.

[Ed Suspicious]

10. He sure campaigns like a front runner.

He flipped the script on Clinton. He will own the front spot because he campaigns like he already owns it while Clinton tries to pick him off.

[merrily]

11. From his keyboard to the polling booths' ears.