"OK, now Hillary Clinton seems to have some problems in Iowa"

[Divernan]

Here's a great article to start off our holiday weekend!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/

The photo above was taken in Madison, Wis., a little more than 100 miles from the border of Iowa, where a reported 10,000 people came to hear Bernie Sanders speak Wednesday. The polling strength of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) in Iowa is almost certainly in part due to the proximity of his state, so all of those excited Wisconsinites aren't what Clinton's team wants to see.

The new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Clinton's lead in the state down to 19 points. It was 45 points in Quinnipiac polling in May.

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state. That's a 12-point drop among women, in a poll with a margin of error of 3.6 points. It's real.

When we were tossing cold water on the Bloomberg poll, we aggregated the anyone-but-Hillary vote to compare it to the front-runner. Here, you can see that the not-Hillary vote has markedly increased -- meaning that the number of people voting against Clinton isn't just switching between candidates, but that people are moving away from her. The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton. (M)ore polls like this one -- and more photos like the one at the top -- and Clinton staffers will need to start ordering Ambien by the crate.

[merrily]

1. So, when people started running against her, her poll numbers dropped.

I'm stunned.

IMO, she's been running for this since Bill ran for President, if not before. Ready for Hillary ads began around this time in 2012. At least, that is when I first started seeing them. That's three years.

Her early poll numbers were no surprise to me given that, given her name recognition of 91% out of the box, given that party stars were blessing her and some even saying no one should challenge her, etc.

But, here we have Bernie Sanders, relatively unknown nationally, announcing formally less than two months ago and BOOM! Can he, will he, sustain the growth in his numbers? I sure hope so.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. Ain't seen nothing yet

Just wait until she begins public speaking in earnest. Then the debates.

Yow!

[BlueStreak]

6. The big question is what happens OUTSIDE the party base

The conventional wisdom has been that Hillary was the safest choice for Dems because she had a good opportunity to win a bunch of GOP women in the general election.

That is probably true, but she is also a lightening rod.

A log of Dems have been wary of a Sanders run, not because they disagree with him. Actually any real Dem should agree with Bernie far more than any Beltway product. The fear is tat the GOP will brand Bernie as a Socialist, which is the same thing as a Commie, and that's about the same as an ISIS terrorist.

That is a risk. But let's look where America is. America has elected a black man President TWICE. And the candidate with the best odds now is a woman. If that doesn't tell you that America is fed up with the situation of rich old white guys running things, I don't know what does. There is a very real risk to the GOP that the things Bernie is talking about will really catch fire. Bernie and Elizabeth Warren have been saying the things that none of the pre-fab candidates (including Clinton and Obama) ever dare say.

It may be literally true that the last time a candidate spoke so plainly to the American people was FDR, and America elected him four times, making huge, fundamental changes in how our society runs.

There isn't a political scientist active today who covered any of FDR's elections. So we would be wise not to listen too much to the talking heads at this stage. What is happening today is nothing they are familiar with.

[LiberalElite]

8. I'm reminded of the fictional Music Man in the early '60s

"The fear is that the GOP will brand Bernie as a Socialist, which is the same thing as a Commie, and that's about the same as an ISIS terrorist."

To paraphrase: With a capital C and that rhymes with T and that stands for Trouble, right here in River City:

[BlueStreak]

10. Right. But that could backfire big time.

The difference between Bernie and other liberals like John Kerry is that:

a) Bernie understands what he's up against; and
b) Bernie punches back

The risk with the GOP is that if they use the word "Socialist" too much, then the public might start talking a lot about that, and then figure out they want some of that.

Stranger things have happened. MUCH stranger things. America electing Obama was a much bigger leap than voting for Bernie.

[SoapBox]

4. I agree with your

BOOM!

[swilton]

9. In short - her infamous inevitability

is built on a house of cards...

She has been 'running' for decades....she, unfortunately, just has so much power that the establishment is under her (and Bill's) thumbs....That's why the nepotism, cronyism as well as corruption is so dysfunctional and breeds cynicism and also why for the good of the country and the planet it must be broken up.

[BrotherIvan]

2. Repost from GD thread from the article

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

[merrily]

5. I wish they had broken out the youth vote.

I think older women are Hillary's strongest supporters.

[winter is coming]

7. I wouldn't be surprised if older people in general were her strongest supporters.

If you're under 60 years of age, the word "socialist" isn't the boogeyman term some would like it to be.

[BrotherIvan]

11. Ha ha I said that in the GDP version of this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251423484

I have seen some polls that show a big break between 50+ and below.

[Octafish]

12. Kick for Kicks.

Rec for Recs.

Feel the Bern!