John Nichols: Key Number for Bernie

[cal04]

Key # for @BernieSanders in Des Moines Register poll: He now leads among voters under age 45 by 23 points.
https://twitter.com/NicholsUprising

In this cycle, Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/

[merrily]

1. Great. Indies are what swing the swing counties.

I pray the young 'uns show up at the polls in huge numbers.

They tend to, if the candidate excites them, so I am optimistic.

[HereSince1628]

2. Primary participation is typically low, this sort of surge in 1st timers creates huge leverage

on the outcomes.

[Qutzupalotl]

3. Enthusiasm has a noticeable effect on caucuses.

Although I have not participated in one, my impression is that hardcore, enthusiastic supporters tend to stay put and attract any fence-sitters to their side.

While I can see reasons to be committed to Clinton, enthusiasm for Sanders is unprecedented. I think he will do well.

[BeanMusical]

4. Kick and R

[sabrina 1]

5. I think young people are so excited about Bernie that they will be very active

in caucuses.

And Bernie intended to go after the Independent vote, which doesn't show up in many of the polls we've been seeing. That is the largest voting bloc now in the country, for the first time in memory for many people.

People are very disillusioned with the way things are. I saw tonight that 71% of Americans are unhappy with their government. THOSE are they people Bernie is attracting.



And NON-voters, people who just opted out of the whole system figuring they can't change it. He's changing a lot of minds among non-voters.

[List left]

6. I know 4 people in their 30's who have never voted.

They are all registering to vote for Bernie!