Thom Hartmann said something important about the polling methodology today...

[AZ Progressive]

(note: I'm cross posting this from the primaries forum so Bernie supporters here see this.)

He said that most of these polls only consider "likely voters", which actually is defined by someone who has voted in at least the last 2 primaries, maybe the last 2 to 4 primaries.

Thus the current polling ignores any potential for young voters to participate in the primaries as typically they don't participate much compared to older voting groups.

If Bernie is able to mobilize millennials to vote in the primaries (which looks likely), the current polling is effectively meaningless as Bernie's support is actually higher than what the polling is saying.

[PatrickforO]

1. I have believed all along that Bernie's support is FAR

greater than the polls indicate.

[appalachiablue]

2. Bernie's support is much wider than reported in the polls and media IMO like many

others who know what's really happening on the ground and in the field. Today I heard Thom bring up the topic of polling people who had voted in previous primaries. It's an important factor that few are aware of as intended.

[Duval]

8. I was glad to see that clip, also. eom

[AzDar]

3. Everyone I KNOW, (even one Repubber) is EXCITED to vote for Bernie...

[Samantha]

11. And that is exactly why those polls should be disregarded

because a number of Republicans will cross over and vote for Bernie. These are people who hold in contempt every Republican now running. Some have even remarked they are all nuts. Some say stupid. These Republicans will not vote for Hillary because they dislike her. They do like Bernie because they say he is very intelligent. I have heard this from friends and casual acquaintances.

Sam

[LovingA2andMI]

4. Never Believe Polls...

When the data in said polls can be manipulated by the six corporations that control or media, who trade on Wall Street, which a certain candidate is very friendly with. HINT: It's Not Bernie!

[Plucketeer]

5. I'll ALMOST feel sorry

for the Hillaristas after the dust settlles. Almost, I said.

[Geronimoe]

6. Polls are meaningless until a few days before voting

Most people don't pay attention to 1.5 years plus of politicians repeating his or her self.

[hay rick]

7. Some actual numbers and a caveat.

Super voters are usually defined as people who have voted in x consecutive elections, including both primaries and general elections. I will stick with the primary only method of selecting likely voters for the sake of simplicity. The general point should be obvious. In my area, primary super voters who voted in 3 consecutive primaries (2010, 2012, 2014) prior to the 2014 general election accounted for 16.6% of the votes in the general election. Using an easier standard to select "likely voters"- those who voted in the 2 immediately preceding primaries yields these results: 2012, 18.5% and 2014, 22.4%.

[SusanCalvin]

9. Hoping for Dewey beats Truman, with, I believe, reason. nt

[Admiral Loinpresser]

10. +1 n/t

[RoccoR5955]

12. I've been saying that for some time now.

Here, and there. Perhaps Thom finally caught on.

[eridani]

13. My advice: ignore polls--especially the ones showing Sanders doing well

What we can do depends on how well organized we are, and how well we mobilize people, period.

[GoneFishin]

14. Money always tacks to the right. Nearly all media does it. Polling is no different. That

does not mean that no polling is accurate. But it does mean that if there is deliberate fudging in polling methodology it is not going to favor the underdog, it is going to favor big money.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. The iceberg vote

I saw something on Facebook with a picture of an iceberg which is Bernie's vote and Hillary the Titanic. I wish I could find it.