**NEW POLL** Biden 39% Sanders 14% Harris 8%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Biden
39%
Sanders
14%
Harris
8%
Clinton
8%
Warren
5%
Booker
4%
O'Rourke
3%
Bloomberg
2%
Klobuchar
2%
Gabbard
1%
Delaney
1%
Gillibrand
0%
Buttigieg
0%
Castro
0%


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190301_US.pdf

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Woot

[hlthe2b]

2. Biden bringing on one of the really competitive alternatives, like Harris, as VP would work well.

[bearsfootball516]

3. I don't normally bash polls, but...

Clinton at 8 percent? She literally said she isn’t running. Either the pollster or respondents are brain dead.

[itsrobert]

4. LOL Gillibrand at Zero

For zero tolerance?

[calguy]

5. Go Joe GO!!

[Yosemito]

6. Seems like an outlier

I will await replication from other polls.
This is a horrible poll for Bernie and it was conducted after he announced his candidacy. That to me looks dubious.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Love em or hate em 538 is one of the most accurate polls out there

[Awsi Dooger]

8. The tabs were more interesting

Trump had virtually an even split on strongly approve and strongly disapprove among men. It was 32% strongly approve and 33% strongly disapprove. But among females it was more than a 2/1 split -- 20% strongly approve and 45% strongly disapprove.

Biden's advantage is among older voters. I'm not sure if that would hold up throughout a general election but it is the reason he fares so well at this stage. Biden loses to Trump only 51-47% among 65+ in this poll. None of the other Democrats are close to that. Next would be Sanders at 51-42% deficit.

If we nominate a female it needs to be a perfect choice and not merely any female for the heck of it. Older women are much more likely to nitpick and reject a female nominee. I saw that while hosting debate watching parties. The males are all above 40% against Trump among age 65+ but once you get to Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren it drops to 39%. The three males all have advantage at aged 55-64 against Trump but the two females are under water.

This is all about margin for error and picking off a critical one percent here and one percent there. Nominating a male is the superior option. Unfortunately our top males have the age issue and potentially other problems. It would be great if Beto stands out and takes control of the primaries. We really need to fortify the governor bench so more of those ideal male candidates are coming out of the assembly line. I like Inslee but it seems doubtful he can get enough traction given the size of this field and where he starts from a name recognition standpoint.

[marylandblue]

9. This one shows Trump doing much better in the NE than the South

Just no way that can be.

[bearsfootball516]

10. There are so many things wrong with that poll, with what you said being one of them

Another, as I mentioned higher, is Hillary Clinton winning 8 percent of the vote.

Hillary has already said she is not running for president. There is something wrong with either the pollsters or the respondents.

[W_HAMILTON]

12. If I were given the option to vote for Clinton in a poll like this, she would be my #1 choice.

Not sure why that is a problem.

[peggysue2]

13. Yeah, the NE numbers . . .

seemed out of whack on a number of these questions.

[Nanjeanne]

11. Some interesting data I thought was when comparing various Dem candidates against Donald Trump

polling size (online) of 1000 Registered Voters

Overall for Biden was 51% Biden to 40% Trump with 9% unsure
Overall for Sanders was 50% to 41% with 9% unsure
Overall for Harris was 45% to 43% with 12% unsure

So looks like Biden and Sanders according to this have the best chance to beat Trump.

Re the other piece of this poll -

On the Dem side - the polling size was 453 Registered Democrats. And Biden total at 39%/Sanders total at 14% . . . Unsure was third highest at 11%. Rest of the field was below Unsure. Not thinking this poll is going to have much meaning soon.

[BlueMTexpat]

14. I distrust these polls

that show Biden leading by such a margin.

When he ran in 2008, he wasn't even a factor in the primaries. Even John Edwards(!) did better than Biden. Had he run in 2016, he would also have been a distant also-ran.

Joe is a LOT older now. He was an excellent Veep with Prez O and his name recognition is largely positive as a result. But he should bow out of the 2020 contest, based on "wishy-washyness" alone. When people get a chance to see and compare the other candidates, he will likely be left in the dust.

If he runs, the Clarence Thomas-Anita Hill debacle will continue to haunt him. As well it should, because Thomas NEVER should have been allowed to be on the Supreme Court. That Bush I nominated such an unqualified individual to fill the seat of the legendary Thurgood Marshall is one of the many reasons why I despised him. And Biden not only disbelieved Anita Hill, he actively pushed Thomas's nomination through.

I despised Bush II much more, but that is another story. And had Thomas not been on the Supreme Court, it might not have interfered with the 2000 election and we might never have had Bush II. We wouldn't have such a f-ed up ME today for one thing. We likely would not even have had a 9/11 because Gore would have been paying attention.

So Biden has always been problematic for me ... and there are many like me, who have LONG memories. We have also had enough of old white males in the Presidency.

It's time for a change.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. He is about my fourth or fifth choice but wow...

[BlueMTexpat]

16. I like your first choice

MUCH better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I wrote a letter to the editor about Anita Hill.

I was leisure traveling throughout the southeast at the time and either watched or listened to much of the hearing. Biden mishandled it. He can probably get by by apologizing and saying it was a different era. Same thing with the crime bill. I don't see how he can explain his role in bankruptcy deform where he sided with the banks against the consumers.


Also, saying Pence is a decent guy is tone deaf.


That being a said a crypt with a D after its name is preferable to Trump.

[BlueMTexpat]

19. I'm with you! eom

[JI7]

22. The HUGE difference this time is Donald Trump and the Mess he is creating so that sets up

an opening for someone like Joe Biden who otherwise would probably not do that well.

in this case many people are probably looking for someone with experience to clean up the mess. even if Biden was not top presidential choice for most people he has always been someone that most people would see as qualified and fit to be president and accept him as such . this time he wont have competition from someone who offers the same things.

i really think this is the reason Biden is doing so well. People just want someone to fix the mess and aren't looking at much more.

i don't know if Biden will win in the end and that someone like Harris, Orourke can still beat him(right now i would bet on either of those 2 winning). but this time is better for him than in previous years so if he really wants to run he should.

[Tarheel_Dem]

17. K&R

[ucrdem]

20. Sounds about right.

How many registered Dems know who Pete Buttigieg is, much less plan to vote for him? Probably not many.

[sacto95834]

21. Jump in the Pool Joe...

You know you want to and the signs say the water is warm. Come on in and lay out your vision.

In our party, one more is welcomed.