Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWant to see who the next Democratic Nominee will be?
Look up at the top of this Forum. There are four faces there. One of them will be the nominee. The rest are running for something else, maybe the VP spot. But those four are the group from which our nominee will come, I'm certain. The VP nominee is probably in that same group.
I don't think we have the heart for a crowded primary race, nor do we need such a thing. This will probably be decided even before the first caucus and primary, perhaps, but if not, it will be decided on Super Tuesday. We desperately need to focus our attention on the person who can win and on winning as many House and Senate seats as possible. Those Congressional seats will determine whether we can return to progressive leadership or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)I think that after the first Super Tuesday, it'll be down to 2 serious candidates and possibly 1 more that's clinging on for dear life, but everyone knows doesn't have a chance.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,761 posts)and either takes one of them out or elevates someone else. A year is a very long time in politics. I do agree that many of the current candidates or candidate-curious people realize that their chances of actually getting the nomination are minuscule, but are actually running for running-mate or are trying to raise awareness of some issue or of themselves.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)However, I'll still bet that the nominee's picture is up there right now. If I had to guess, today, I'd guess Joe Biden, who will probably jump up when he announces. If I had to guess today, I'd guess that Kamala Harris will be the VP nominee, simply because she is so damned good at presenting herself in public appearances and because she has strong appeal among demographics we really, really need to turn out next November.
If I had to guess today, I'd guess that Elizabeth Warren might drop from the top four, being replaced by someone from farther down the list or someone not yet on the list. I don't think she's going to play much of a role in the 2020 race, frankly. She's very nice, and well-qualified, but she's outmatched in terms of personality and chutzpah.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,761 posts)Biden has several advantages: Name recognition, vast experience (including foreign policy experience that most of the others don't have), and a way of presenting himself that seems very genuine. On the other hand, he's no spring chicken, which might be off-putting to some, as well as the perception, at least, that he's an old-school "establishment" guy. Choosing Harris as his running mate might help dispel some of that, and it would also give her a huge advantage for 2024, since it's unlikely he'd run for a second term in his 80s. But Biden hasn't even declared yet. Anyhow, I will probably keep my comfortable seat on the fence for quite awhile.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
WeekiWater
(3,259 posts)I think you are right.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)shot he was at this time of the process in the year he ran and first won.
Right, am I remembering correctly he was "who?" at this point? I dont remember the details, so who knows who might be.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Regarding that last, though, I was just reading that Senator Schumer is trying to get some of impressive Democrats who have been considering a run, governors etc., to apply their big names and reputations in their states to taking senate seats away from Republicans. Yes!
Also, regarding those 4 pictures, DU is incredibly UN-representative of Democrats and left-leaning indies in general. By far most of them are paying little to no attention yet, sensible people that they are. And these pictures reflect transient enthusiasms that mostly completely ignore the various giant occult factors at play in the background.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)after Super Tuesday. Remembering the media's need to sell newspapers, though, and the need of some voters here, if not so much "out there," to reject whoever the more mainstream candidate(s) may be, and of course interference by enemies foreign and domestic, I think many Americans might not understand that it was essentially decided before or after ST, even if it were.
Btw, just counted 15 titles with Sanders mentioned, plus this thread with his picture among the four.
Yet we know he's not going to happen. Not unless the GOP/Putin/China do an incredibly better job this time, and maybe not then. The big media are already analyzing and reporting whose candidacies are being promoted by our enemies.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Anyone still standing as we head into Super Tuesday will have a better chance than Sanders. I imagine those individuals will be Harris, Biden, O'Rourke and possibly 1-2 others.
The main thing Sanders does is prevent certain candidates from doing well enough in IA and NH to justify continuing. There are a lot of candidates for whom IA and NH will be crucial. Klobuchar (because MN borders IA), Warren (because she's a New Englander) and any of the lesser known candidates have to really impress in those first 2 contests.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)vote is a good point. It's also highly unlikely that dissension is going to be as big as in 2016, outside agitprop notwithstanding. Enemies tried to drum it up to split and discourage midterm Democratic voters and failed rather spectacularly.
Speaking of "others," Jay Inslee, governor of Washington, just announced. I need to know a lot more about him, but I like his long, strong, genuine climate/environment/energy and generally solid liberal record. In that respect he's the real thing, and experience running a vigorous, diverse state is a great asset for any candidate. He's supposed to be running as a one-issue candidate, but governors are always many-issue workers.
Mr. Inslee has praised the Green New Deal a sweeping proposal by some Democrats in Congress that, among many other environmental and economic goals, calls for a fully renewable energy supply within 10 years for elevating public discussion of climate change and acknowledging the scale of the action needed. But he has also described it as more of an aspirational outline of principles than a policy document.
His environmental policy record in his home state is long...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/01/us/politics/jay-inslee-on-the-issues.html
Washington's liberal in the PNW west of the Cascades, but basically conservative over the rest of the state. Inslee tried and failed last year to pass the first carbon tax in the nation, but that's only one fight on a variety of fronts.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I like him and appreciate that he'll bring greater attention to climate change.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)deep and varied record as a governor means he'll be anything but a one-dimensional offering.
Agree with the value of attention to not just climate change but especially attention by a long-time professional activist who genuinely knows what he's talking about and can help drive discussion. We need all of that we can get. I'm happy to have him on board.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Being an underdog in a large field of candidates, including some superstars, is incredibly tough. On the one hand, you need to get noticed, so you find a niche. On the other hand, you can only be viewed as "the climate candidate" for so long. And it's not like any of our candidates are going to be dismissive of the problem of climate change. Any one of them could speak forcefully about environmental policy and undercut Inslee.
But, yes, I welcome his voice. My wife and I lived in Washington not all that long ago. I like Inslee.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)his only motive for running, also. He may be doing it to help shape the dialogue nationally and also to grow support on climate and energy among the people of the state. Just a thought.
That article describes him as low-key, though. That didnt work on the debate stages for OMalley...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,273 posts)be the case with so many candidates
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...following the March 17 primaries, I think we may have our nominee.
The field will winnow before Super Tuesday, and even before Iowa. More than half of those on the debate stage in June probably won't make it to New Hampshire, if Iowa.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,273 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,827 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Cohen hearing. Do we really need this many questioners? Can we take the most senior members and funnel questions to them. Or vote on the best questioners and give questions to them? Better flow with 10 min vs 5.
It's all about our inclusiveness but doubt we will ever change even if we wanted to for a particular situation or even if it was the smartest thing to do like you say.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)The race certainly won't be decided before Iowa, but it might be after Super Tuesday. Or after the March 17 primaries, at which point more than 60% of the delegates will have been allocated.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)right wing show..poll of only Texans matched against trump. Naturally trump won each. Duh. Biden was closest..like 1 point below trump, then I remember Bernie, Beto, Harris and Warren.
(I'll see if it's published somewhere).
Didn't surprise me much since now living in a red part of Texas, think the highest level of bigotry is toward women. Even the older generation of women think men are the Masters.
If we don't get WI, MI and PA we need TX. Amazingly, people hate trump in Texas more than people in Ohio and Florida do. But other factors play a role. Weak Dem infrastructure, and the smear works very well here...so many low-infos.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Zero. A state with 44% conservatives is not in play at all, unless we've got such a national tilt it has already taken those other three states by 5+ points apiece.
Just because nobody else mentions the number of self-identified liberals and conservatives in each state doesn't mean that it is not easily the most decisive variable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Lower than Ohio.
Lower than Florida.
Lower than Michigan.
Lower than Pennsylvania.
Lower than Wisconsin
Lower than North Carolina
Agree we are more likely to take back "the three" - WI, MI, and PA before we win Texas. But if we don't take ALL the former back, we have to have Texas. Or another state to make up a loss.
So, why not pick a candidate who can win in Texas and the three? If disgruntled landowners affected by a wall start making headlines we have an even better shot.
And don't forget TRussia. If it really happened that they affected the outcome in "the three" they can do it again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)slim chances running for VP.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)and is named to help win in some vital state or to win some demographic group or another. The VP can be anyone who can meet that need. it could be Beto O'Rourke, if Texas is seen as essential, or Kamala Harris, if the youth and women demographics are at risk. It could also be someone like Amy Klobuchar if it was felt she could carry certain Midwestern states.
Purely a political decision.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
pansypoo53219
(20,981 posts)and made sure to cut her down, so the moron had a chance.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,624 posts)I think you're being too simplistic. Biden could decide not to run; Beto and Sherrod could decide to get in. Any of those changes could shake up the rankings.
I'm supporting Hickelooper BASED ON THE CANDIDATES SO FAR. Everything is subject to change (I reached out to Inslee today so see if he wanted in meet in the future).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)We shall see.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Pachamama
(16,887 posts)As much as I want Harris/Biden I realize that in order to win and the things that will need to be done, we need experience (Biden) and we need a woman (Harris but Biden too) and we need to have the black vote (Biden and Harris) and we need the blue collar working class whites (Biden for sure) and we need someone with Foreign Policy experience (Biden) and we need someone with legal experience and ability to debate and take on issues and not back down (Both Harris and Biden).
I see it as a tie for me when choosing between the two. But I think Biden/Harris is the winning ticket. Both coasts and Biden could win Texas.
All the other candidates will continue to do good for their states and possibly be great cabinet members or SCOTUS members.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tinrobot
(10,903 posts)The more I hear from Harris, though, the more I like her. She's really good.
If Biden surges, then of course I'll support him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)Great goal, has been elusive so far.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)The fact that nobody is above 20% means they are hardly formidable, and easily swallowed.
It is like a football team that is favored solely due to the weakness of its opponent and not based on its own strength. Try relying on those teams as favorite and it will be gulp city in a hurry.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
yardwork
(61,670 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)VP selections have been interesting. In the last 3 presidential elections (both sides), only one VP nominee was running for President in the primaries (Biden), and he didn't fare so well.
What I am hoping for VP is that if the nominee is older (Baby Boomer or older) that he/she picks a younger nominee to pass the torch to a new generation. The 2020 election will see people who were not alive on 9/11 voting.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,403 posts)They will make a fine president.
Also, on the we dont have stuff, speak for yourself. We may have other ideas.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Biden's main advantage is name recognition. He's a pretty bad presidential candidate otherwise. His previous two runs proved that.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
forklift
(401 posts)but at least one candidate may keep running despite the mathematical certainty of losing.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JI7
(89,254 posts)to do best.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)A candidate or two may do surprisingly well in IA or NH and then contend. Maybe Booker. Maybe Inslee. Hard to say.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided