If Biden holds the percent of the minority vote he is currently getting

[dsc]

he will be our nominee. The reason Hillary lost her lead in 2008 was that black voters switched once it was apparent that Obama was viable. It is impossible to know now if Harris or Booker can eat into Biden's support but if they or someone else doesn't, it is all over. I don't see either Sanders or Buttigieg being the candidate who can do that. South Carolina, the first contest with an appreciable African American vote is one of the least gay friendly states in the entire nation. It also decisively rejected Sanders in 2016. Could Warren do it? Possibly if she remains viable after New Hampshire she could. But I think Harris in particular has a much better shot of doing so. So even if we don't get a minority or woman as a candidate, minority women will be deciding which candidate we get of those who survive Iowa and New Hampshire and Harris doesn't even have to place or show in those states to be viable.

[Celerity]

1. I tend to agree. The only candidate who may possibly really eat into Biden's POC vote is not even

declared yet, Stacey Abrams (who did just turn down running for the GA Senate). I have no idea what she is going to do. I think she would be Joe's strongest VP running mate. She puts GA, FL, and NC into play IMHO.

[dsc]

3. I didn't think of her

but you are correct she would likely excite the South Carolina electorate as well as Georgia, NC, Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida all bordering states. I keep forgetting she wasn't a hard no.

[WeekiWater]

2. As things sit at this current moment, I think you are correct.

I do think Harris is going to move up some as we get closer.

I am still shocked at how many of Sanders supporters last time around are now backing other candidates or are undecided. I was certain he was going to poll off the charts in the early states, specially in a larger field. I was completely wrong about that. I think that is actually going to play a big role moving into the early states. His remaining support is going to evaporate as they move more toward a stop Biden movement. I think it will be a sizable percentage and if Warren is still polling well they will move to her. It can be a game changer.

The base of the party seems to currently be rallying around Biden. Even though we are a long way out I think it is going to be difficult to move them. Biden has been vetted more than any of the other candidates. The worst of the worst has already come out.

At this point I would say my bet is on Warren, Harris, or Biden in the early rounds.

Long way to go but I do enjoy some speculation.

[katmondoo]

4. A lot of us were disappointed at Bernie's lack of support for Hillary after she won the nomination

in 2016

[Cosmocat]

10. I think he missed his window

He had the perfect storm last go round - no other candidates than he and Hillary, and the slander on her was so thick even democrats fell for the bullshit.

This go round a lot more good options, and with time his low grade malicious way of campaigning has gotten on the nerves of a lot of Ds, as well as his only coming into the party when he wants to run for POTUS.

[Bayard]

5. Biden and Harris are the winning ticket

[DownriverDem]

6. So true

I keep telling folks that we can't win by only appealing to the far left. Too many folks don't get it. It's a numbers game. Biden/Harris would be an excellent ticket.

[empedocles]

7. Minority vote may have reason for the most fear; need for best bet winner Biden.

[Gothmog]

8. One cannot get the Democratic nomination without a significant amount of support from this group

[dsc]

9. one could if the vote were split

If say four candidates split it roughly 4 ways then the 5th candidate could win by getting everything else.

[Gothmog]

11. Washington Post-Opinion: Voters aren't playing along with the media narrative

Link to tweet

The latest Hill-HarrisX poll shows former vice president Joe Biden opening up a 32-point lead over Sanders, whose claim to the party’s heart is evaporating before our eyes. The latest Morning Consult poll shows Biden expanding his share to 40 percent (up 4 points from the previous week) and Sanders tumbling to 19 percent (down from 27 percent in February). In other words, available evidence suggests that at present the predicted story lines aren’t emerging.....

The most reliable voters — African American women — have little affection for Sanders, nor have they automatically gravitated to African American candidates to the left of Biden. They know Biden, they like him and so far they are content to reward him with their support after his eight years of service in the Obama administration.

The lack of appeal among African American candidates is now a significant problem for Sanders and for other progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. (The latest Quinnipiac poll found, “Biden had the support of 42 percent of nonwhite respondents, more than 30 points ahead of his nearest rival, Warren. Sanders, who struggled with nonwhite voters during his 2016 campaign, had only 7 percent support.”)

In short, in going far to the left, Sanders and other candidates misfired not only with older, more moderate whites but also with the critical African American electorate. The media likewise has overestimated the influence of the far left and failed to appreciate the centrist bent of both white and African American voters.

[Cha]

12. Keep it UP, Voters!

M$M SUCKS!

[Gothmog]

14. Yep

Link to tweet

[NYMinute]

13. I agree

the only one who has a chance at coming close to Biden is Senator Harris.