Real Clear Politics, Average of National Polls (graph)

[crazytown]

Warren is 3rd place, Harris 4th, Buttigieg 5th.

The Buttigieg numbers may be misleading. Most polls had him between 8-10%. A CNN poll, probably an outlier, came in at 2%.

[George II]

1. That's amazing. To put it another way:

Biden: 41.4, Everyone Else: 49.6

or....

Biden: 41.4, Top Five Opponents: 40.6

or....

Biden: 41.4, Sanders (top opponent) X3: 43.8

[crazytown]

4. He's killing it.

Look at the takeoff after the announcement. Given the graph is a moving average, that’s almost vertical.

And as many polls suggested before the announcement, Sanders voters will go to Biden

[Baclava]

14. "We want Joe!"

"We want Joe!"

[Cha]

18. Those are some really Nice

pics.. Thank you, Baclava!

[Andy823]

2. And we are so close

to the first caucus, only what 9 plus months away! Things will change after the debates start, that's when I will start paying some attention to the polls!

[crazytown]

3. Kerry was about 5% at the corresponding time in 2004

Howard Dean over 30%

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Dean wasn't doing that well just yet...

Here's some polls from this point in 2003 for reference:

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. May 21-22, 2003. N=368 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.


"As you may know, Al Gore has said he will not run for president in 2004. Now suppose Al Gore changes his mind and runs for the Democratic nomination for president -- who would you vote for? . . ."


Al Gore 40
Joseph Lieberman 7
Dick Gephardt 7
John Kerry 7
John Edwards 5
Al Sharpton 4
Bob Graham 4
Howard Dean 3
Dennis Kucinich 2
Carol Moseley Braun 1
Other 1

Without Al Gore:

ABC News Poll. May 28-June 1, 2003. N=1,029 adults nationwide. Results shown are among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.


"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated


Hillary Clinton 37
Joseph Lieberman 14
Richard Gephardt 10
John Kerry 7
John Edwards 6
Bob Graham 4
Howard Dean 3
Al Sharpton 2
Carol Moseley Braun 1
Dennis Kucinich 1
None (vol.) 3
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2
No opinion 11

[crazytown]

23. Oh Wow

Wow. I have a clear fresh memotg of Howard Dean going into the Sleepless Tour as the string front runner .. and it’s completely wrong. Plus my time line is scrambled. I wonder how many of my treasured memories fron 2008 are illusions .

[dubyadiprecession]

26. Kerry wasn't our last Vice President...

As Biden might say “That’s a big fucking difference!”.

[crazytown]

27. As pointed out above, my information was wrong.

At that tine VP Gore Was leading the polls with about 35% support, but he chose not to enter. Biden has grasped the opportunity. He’s hungry, and that’s a BFD.

[charlyvi]

5. Biden annihilated Paul Ran at the Veep debate in 2012.

I recall him laughing out loud at Ryan.

DANVILLE, Ky. – Vice President Joe Biden delivered an extraordinarily aggressive, top-to-bottom attack on the Romney-Ryan ticket Thursday, repeatedly interrupting and even laughing at Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan during the lone vice presidential debate of the 2012 campaign.

snip

Here on the campus of Centre College, it was Biden who seized control of the event early and assailed Ryan with a stream of caustic one-liners and emotionally charged accusations against both members of the 2012 GOP ticket. He set the tone for the evening early, when Ryan rebuked the White House for not securing a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Libya.

“With all due respect, that’s a bunch of malarkey. Not a single thing he said is accurate,” Biden said, proceeding to blast Ryan for having “cut embassy security in his budget.”

When Ryan criticized the administration’s approach to Iran, warning of a “nuclear arms race in the Middle East,” the vice president could barely keep his response safe for broadcast television.

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/biden-ryan-to-clash-in-only-vp-debate-082309


So, if anyone is counting on Biden wilting in a debate, don't. Can you imagine if Biden laughed in Trump's* face? Trump* would plotz!

[crazytown]

6. If Biden gets going laughing a Trump,

dotard will lose it.

[sheshe2]

7. I sure hope so!!!

[crazytown]

8. Who says there's no beauty in this world?

It would be a beautiful thing to watch.

What’s he going to do? Yell ‘Sleepy Joe, Sleepy Joe!’

[sheshe2]

9. Perhaps...

And shake his tiny fists at him.

or~

[crazytown]

10. Mini Golf

I cannot tell a lie, the hole moved

[sheshe2]

11. ...

[crazytown]

12. ...

[charlyvi]

13. I pray that's his strategy, should he win.

should he win the nomination. The whole field, all 500 of them, ought to study that debate and learn from it. How to turn Trump' onto a quivering mass of resentment and humiliation.

[dubyadiprecession]

28. Trump won't be ready for Joe.

I wouldn’t put it past trump to avoid the debates all together. He’ll just scapegoat the media in an attempt to cover his whiney, crybaby stature.

[Blue_true]

15. I tell you.

After President Obama let Romney run wild in the first presidential debate, seeing Joe lay the wood to Lying Ryan was salve for the soul. Of course President Obama came back in subsequent debates and made Romney look like a fool.

[Sugarcoated]

17. I couldn't even bring myself to watch the VP debate after the Presidential

My teenage son was watching on his laptop w/headphones, about a half hour in he says, "Mom you're gonna want to see this". Biden was masterful.

[Cha]

19. Good to know.. Thank You,

Sugarcoated!

[Sugarcoated]

20. It's nice to be able to share

with people who know exactly how I feel and have the same passion for the truth.

[Cha]

21. Yes It

Is!

[Blue_true]

31. I feel you.

After President Obama's performance in that first debate, I could not sleep that night at all. I almost didn't watch the Veep debate, the rightwingers at work were predicting that Lying Ryan would slaughter Joe, liberals like me were silent because we didn't know. I forced myself to watch the Veep debate and after a few minutes I saw that Joe was killing it. I felt better that night and slept, but I could not watch the second presidential debate due to nervousness. I was so happy to log onto DU to find that President Obama kicked Romney's ass.

[NYMinute]

16. Time for Sanders campaign

to start going negative in a frenzy.

[Hortensis]

24. :) Yup. That Sanders is doing poorly when we know

"the people" are behind his revolution demands explanation.

Just heard our party is the "Democratic Industrial Complex" again (resurrected from the last Democratic presidency) and must be stopped.

And of course, a whole subterranean basin of unresolved HillHate is being pumped to the surface. Sanders' otherwise inexplicable bad showing is fully explained by "hillaryization" corruption of the primary electoral process. A "deep state" type of conspiracy for those inclined to imbibe.

Deja vu all over again.

[Blue_true]

32. Maddening, isn't it. Yet those people claim to want the same things we do, just faster. nt

[Hortensis]

33. :) They want to be us, of course.

Only far better, and Republicans would just go "poof: disappear" along with us.

When actions belie rhetoric, smart people believe the actions.

[NurseJackie]

25. It couldn't be any clearer! Look at how BS's poll numbers have TOTALLY CRATERED!

Times have changed and the more voters have gotten to know BS, they less they want him. Whatever "strategy" it was to continually smear Democrats and the Democratic party hasn't worked as well as someone thought it might.

That's particularly true with the AA and POC communities. I'll never forget how BS was HUMILIATED in North Charleston... in an majority black city, an a black neighborhood, in an historically black church... the ethnic mix of those in attendance was whiter than the ethnic makeup of Vermont. Literally. It was a STUNNING rejection of BS by that predominantly black community.

[crazytown]

29. Apparently, 'our Revolutionaries' have dumped Sanders for ... Biden

That’s A Big Fucking Deal.

And talking of BFDs, SC - Biden 48, Sanders 12

[MineralMan]

30. It's interesting to see just how sharply the trendlines changed

when Biden announced officially. It's almost like people were waiting for that and responded overwhelmingly positively. What's also very interesting about that chart is that the gap between Biden and Sanders stayed about the same until the announcement. Finally, although there has been some movement among the other candidates, it hasn't been nearly as dramatic as between Biden and Sanders.

It's early days, still, of course, but the trendlines are pretty clear. If they continue as they are, Biden will be in an overwhelmingly strong position before long. I can also see a few who should probably be re-examining their decisions to run. Their numbers have been essentially flat since the beginning. Not much hope for that to change, I'd think.

[floppyboo]

34. I see this as a sad confirmation that most voters don't follow politics

The 2 best known candidates - known by name only it would seem - are the only 2 players in the game at the moment. Why Sanders voters had Biden as their second pick, aside from name recognition, is a mystery to me. Unless the 'old white guy' trust thing really is a thing. But is it??? I mean, we know the discredited CNN poll had a hugely scewed demographic, which would be factored into this - but as it's an average of polls ... Are people really that uninterested? Bored? Bored enough to yack on the phone with a pollster?