538: Are More Moderate Democrats More Electable?

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

Bulletpoint No. 1: Actually, maybe the moderate Democrats are more popular with swing voters

Be careful with general election polls for candidates who aren’t well-known.

At Vox this week, Ezra Klein — I’m usually a fan — points out that Bernie Sanders is doing second-best among Democrats in head-to-head polls against President Trump (worse than Joe Biden but better than everyone else). This is true as far it goes, at least if you ignore a couple of outlier-ish polls for Beto O’Rourke.

This challenges the theory, Ezra says, that “Americans are ideological moderates who punish political parties for nominating candidates too far to the left or right.”

The problem is that none of the other Democrats have the near-universal name recognition that Sanders and Biden enjoy. And people are reluctant to say they’ll vote for candidates who they don’t know much about. For instance, Trump gets about 44 percent in polls against both the well-known Sanders and the relatively unknown Buttigieg. Sanders is ahead by a larger margin — but it’s because he gets 49 percent whereas Buttigieg gets 44 percent with a lot more undecideds, probably including a lot of people who would vote for Buttigieg if they knew who he was.

[Honeycombe8]

1. Name recognition is a huge advantage in early polls.

Everyone knows who Biden is. Next in line is Sanders, for name recognition. For voters, who aren't political junkies like some of the rest of us, they don't know much, if anything, about any of the rest.

For those voters who catch the debates (and many won't), the numbers for the unknowns may change significantly, either in a good or bad way. The public will gradually get to know some of the unknowns. But they will never catch up to Biden in name recognition. He has been in the national eye for longer than some of the candidates have been adults.

[DownriverDem]

3. We want to

beat trump. I get the feeling that folks don't want to take a chance on the other candidates.

[DownriverDem]

2. The problem is

we need a candidate that can beat trump and will be ready on day one. That would be Biden. Biden running with a strong Dem Progressive woman would be a formidable ticket.

[aikoaiko]

4. "Americans are ideological moderates..." Explain Trump, Ezra.

You're not paying attention to current events.

[Kahuna7]

5. Klein doesn't take in account that Bernie had not been vetted...

Last edited Thu May 23, 2019, 11:49 AM - Edit history (1)

and that Bernie was the gop preferred candidate to run against for a reason.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

8. Carter doesn't fit in

He was primaried from his left for being too conservative!

[Gothmog]

7. Who is surprised by this?

Water is also wet