Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumJoe Biden is the front-runner by every measure -- except big crowds
PoliticoSo where are the big energetic crowds, the lines around the block to get into Joe Bidens events?
The question is no small matter in a party still recovering from a bitter 2016 defeat a loss marked by a lack of enthusiasm for an establishment nominee in several critical states.
Attendance at the former vice presidents launch rally paled next to some of his rivals. In his first Iowa visit, he didnt match the crowds that greeted Elizabeth Warren or even the less well-known Pete Buttigieg in their initial visits. So far, hes kept his events to smaller venues where theres little danger of empty seats.
Reminder - the average voter doesn't go to rallies.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FBaggins
(26,744 posts)It's far fewer of them.
He might just be playing it safe while he's sitting on a large lead... but his support could be a mile wide and an inch deep and we wouldn't know it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)Widespread support is often "shallow" except with narrow slices of supporters. I suspect Bernie may find that much of his former support was rather shallow and based more upon the other options than himself. Conversely though, large crowds aren't necessarily a measure of large support. It can be evidence of deep, but narrow support. Joe's biggest problem is almost assuredly that Iowa is a caucus state which can result in "disappointing" results for front runners, even if they win.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DownriverDem
(6,228 posts)is big. We want to beat trump. Folks should think about a VP candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Butterflylady
(3,544 posts)Were an indication of a winner, then Bernie would have been the nominee in 2016. He had large crowds wherever he went and look how that turned out. I am so tired of reading articles from those that are trying their hardest to make people believe that they know what they're talking about when obviously they dont know s**t.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)that it is POSSIBLE that right now Biden's support is not deep and strong. He certainly is legitimately in the lead. Why? I suspect it's a combination of a belief that he can win PA (he clearly would) WI and MI (probable but not as certain) plus the Hillary states (electability), and a nostalgia for the Obama Era.
However, could he easily dissolve that support with a strong gaffe or poor debate performances? Absolutely he could. I have no idea if he will or not, but he does not engender the kind of dedicated following that some of the other candidates do. So, he is IMO more susceptible to a crisis/issue derailing him than some of the other candidates.
Now, if he makes it out unscathed, he's pretty much going to be the nominee.
Whether he does or does not (and who emerges to take his place if he does) are IMO going to be the only real, major story(s) of the primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
StevieM
(10,500 posts)HRC had a wider lead in those places until the Comey intervention turned the race upside down at the end. I reject the claim that the polls were wrong. Actually, the polls changed, and so did the election result.
Michigan is a place where we will do well due to angry union workers who were betrayed by right-to-work laws. I'll admit that it is trickier in Wisconsin where voter suppression techniques have been relentlessly unleashed. That state is ground zero in the assault on democracy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)I can buy a guarantee that Joe Biden wins PA. He's from there, they love him. It ain't going to reject him.
That's different from other candidates...all of which COULD win PA, but I wouldn't say are guaranteed to do so.
No one, including Biden, is guaranteed to win MI or WI.
That's the difference here.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DownriverDem
(6,228 posts)and I don't get why folks attack him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)because he's in the lead?
No one is attacking Cory Booker. If Booker were in the lead, he would be attacked.
Same thing with the folks whining because Sanders gets attacked. He's in second. If you are at or near the top, you are going to get attacked. That's how this works. It's politics not tiddlywinks.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(297,275 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,250 posts)no matter where he was.
so the crowds actually didn't always reflect the people from all the areas he was in.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
sarabelle
(453 posts)to hype them. People didn't know Obama, hence he drew big crowds. Most people know Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
EveHammond13
(2,855 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,585 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)And compels one to wonder who in fact, is arguing the average voter goes to rallies.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,585 posts)...Politico writes stories about politics. Rallies vs town halls, big dollar fundraisers vs on-line donations...all these are relevant articles about the campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)And no one is going to win without strong grassroots.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....for security purposes, they generally start an hour or so late, and if it's someone like an ex-vice president security is tight and sometimes everyone has to stay at the rally until he is safely in his car and on his way. That tends to cut down on the crowds.
Back in 2010 Bill Clinton was in Hartford for a rally for then-candidate Governor Malloy. Everything I described above was the case - a 1-hour rally wound up being a 3-4 hour ordeal.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
susanr516
(1,425 posts)I've listened to several town hall podcasts of several candidates because I really didn't know much about them. Biden doesn't need a lot of rallies to introduce himself to voters. He's already well-known in all states. Smaller crowds may just be an indication that people aren't as inclined to go to the trouble of seeing an event in person if they already have some idea where the candidate stands in relation to their own views. It may have nothing to do with his depth of support.
Of course, I may be totally wrong. I don't know much about candidate rallies. I live in Texas outside of the major metropolitan areas, so even if there was a candidate appearance, I'd be looking at a minimum round trip of over 250 miles to attend.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided