Joe Biden Has the Most to Lose at the Debates

[DonViejo]

The former vice president hasn’t gone head-to-head with another Democrat in more than a decade.

EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE
5:00 AM ET

n that October night in 2012, everyone who had sat through Joe Biden’s debate prep knew he was going to say “malarkey”—they just didn’t know when. Democrats were panicking after Barack Obama had stumbled through his first debate with Mitt Romney one week earlier, but here was Biden, looking like he was having a good time dismissing Paul Ryan in the vice-presidential debate.

“With all due respect,” Biden said, interrupting Ryan’s very first answer that night in Kentucky, “that's a bunch of malarkey.” By the end of the evening, Biden had seemingly rescued his boss. Along the way, he’d created a meme and launched a line of “malarkey” merchandise. It was a much better night for him than in 1987, when a bungled answer set off a plagiarism scandal that weeks later forced him to bow out of his first presidential run.

Biden has always been a strong debater, but he hasn’t faced anyone since Ryan seven years ago, and hasn’t debated another Democrat in more than a decade. The first Democratic showdowns, in Miami at the end of June—over two nights with 10 candidates each— will be the biggest moment in the 2020 race so far, and Biden, as the front-runner, clearly has the most to lose. Biden’s team has kept him mostly out of sight since he launched his campaign at the end of April. Staying out of the way means he has less chance of making a comment that could be twisted into a news-cycle-defining scandal. That’s the upside. The downside, beyond having to fend off snide tweets about his skimpy schedule and articles questioning whether he’s too old to keep up, is that he’s getting almost no practice taking voter questions at town halls or in open exchanges with reporters. Now if he stumbles or screws up, it’ll be a prime-time event, with the rest of the field and an internet full of pundits ready to pounce. (On Tuesday, Biden released his long-promised climate plan and was immediately attacked both for not going far enough in his proposals and, in an echo of the 1987 scandal, for failing to include citations for certain passages.)

Biden has told friends that part of the reason for sticking to an ultra-light schedule is to create more time for debate prep, which for him tends to be less about conducting mock sessions and role-playing than digging into briefing books. This will likely hold: Biden’s aides are not convinced that any kind of interaction he’d have at a town hall or other event is comparable to what’s awaiting him onstage. His campaign staffers expect the debates to either crystallize his top spot, or turn the primary into less of a marathon with Biden out ahead and more like two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs.

more
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/biden-democratic-debates-miami/591055/

[IADEMO2004]

1. We have the most to lose.

[DownriverDem]

10. Too bad

many folks just don't get Biden. They do not realize that the majority of the country wants normalcy. Biden represents normalcy He won't take any of trump's crap, Get behind Biden. He can win.

[IADEMO2004]

11. I caucused for Biden in 2008.

[Demsrule86]

13. You want even a chance of winning support Biden...only one who can win.

[MineralMan]

2. Or Vice-Versa

Joe Biden also has a good chance of picking up supporters at the debates. If so, most of them will come from candidates who are faring poorly in the early campaigning, going to the debate with just a couple of percentage points in the polls.

There's also a good chance that second, third, and fourth place in the polls may shift around somewhat. Probably the most effect will be seen between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are competing for voters with similar concerns. There's a fair chance that Sanders will lose some supporters to Warren. Sanders' debating style is not always conducive to attracting supporters. That raises the possibility that both will drop below the 15% level in polling. That would risk them getting no delegates at all in some states.

And then there are Buttigieg and Harris. Good performances by them might also rob from Sanders and Warren, making the race for second tighter. Again, there is a risk of nobody having more than 15% of support going into the actual primaries and caucuses.

While Biden might have the most to lose, a good performance by him could lead to a lockout of everyone else, at least in some states, with all delegates being pledged to Biden in any state where nobody but him gets more than 15% of the vote.

Tense times, I'd think, and more for the second place position on down than at the top.

[peggysue2]

8. Agree, MM

While Biden might have the most to lose, a good performance by him could lead to a lockout of everyone else, at least in some states, with all delegates being pledged to Biden in any state where nobody but him gets more than 15% of the vote.

I suspect the debates will be a turning point for all these candidates. Everyone appears to be in a holding pattern at the moment.

[honest.abe]

3. He just needs to play the elder statesman, wise sage, kind and caring human being..

which will be easy for him since he is all those things.

[Kentonio]

14. Yeah, I imagine being frontrunner is probably a very good place for it too.

I really don't see any big drop for him at the debates, the main danger I'd imagine would be someone else outshining him, rather than him being brought down by anyone directly.

[honest.abe]

15. We have several impressive candidates who will likely "outshine" Joe but..

I dont think that will hurt him much as most Dem primary voters are focused on who can beat Trump and not a glamour contest.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

4. I'm interested to see what his approach is -- if he continues with the "you remember me, we'll

hash out the details later" vibe or comes out with policy positions that try to outflank others.

[Demsrule86]

12. His policy is sound...I think policy driven campaigns lose more easily...easy to demonize...

You win on broad proposals...the vision thing.

[Sneederbunk]

5. If he does well, the MSM loses.

[peggysue2]

6. The article is a good summation of how impactful I suspect the debates will be

Btw, I really laughed at the last line of your clip:

His campaign staffers expect the debates to either crystallize his top spot, or turn the primary into less of a marathon with Biden out ahead and more like two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs.



Two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs is an image I won't forget easily.

[True Dough]

9. I'm very much looking forward to Pete Buttigieg's performance in the debates

I have a feeling that's where he's going to shine. He lacks federal experience but he sure as heck doesn't lack the knowledge, the wit or the charm to excel.