Biden holds 12-point lead among 2020 Democrats as Warren rises

[left-of-center2012]

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over the rest of the Democratic presidential primary field as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has risen above other top-tier competitors, according to a new survey released Thursday.

Nearly 53 percent of those surveyed who say they will vote in their states Democratic presidential primary or caucus said they would consider voting for Biden, while 41 percent said they would consider backing Warren, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.

Biden emerged as the top choice among male and female Democratic primary and caucus-goers, as well as those who identified as white, black and Hispanic. He topped his competition among older voters above the age of 45, though he was beaten by Sanders among younger voters aged 18-44 as the Vermont senator continues to energize the party’s youthful progressive flank.

The top tier of candidates gaining voters consideration is followed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 32 percent, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) with 22 percent, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) with 21 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) with 11 percent and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) with 10 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447241-poll-biden-holds-12-point-lead-over-democratic-field-as-warren-rises

[Cha]

1. KR

[Celerity]

3. may it continue to shrink, we can do so much better

[BannonsLiver]

4. Ahh the bouncy thing tells me it's only about helping Mayor Pete.

And has nothing at all to do with the Hyde Amendment. As I suspected all along.

Thanks for the clarity, Celerity.

[Celerity]

5. Buttigieg is far from the only candidate who is superior to Biden

[Demsrule86]

6. Biden is the only candidate who will win a general...

[Celerity]

7. nope, ridiculous

[Demsrule86]

8. Factual. He can win MI,WI and PA. I don't see the others having a chance.

Looks like he could also take Ohio and maybe Texas. Ask yourself how you will deal with a Trump win? We need someone who has appeal in the moderate rustbelt or we lose.

[Celerity]

9. you have zero concrete proof of any of those positings, other than some oh so malleable polls

It is offensive to democracy to say it is Biden or nothing.

[Demsrule86]

11. If Trump wins MI,WI and PA, HE WINS IT ALL! Biden stops him.

I have an opinion based on studying the electoral map and voting patterns. Time will tell.

[Celerity]

14. zero proof of this, it is all based off hypotheticals and early poll-based prognostication

[Demsrule86]

17. Nothing to do with polls...the map tells it all.

[Celerity]

19. I know the map, Biden is not the only path to victory, if he was, why hold primaries

[Demsrule86]

22. Show me how we win without those states...MI,WI and PA

It doesn't make sense to pick someone who can't appeal to the states we need.

[Celerity]

23. strawman, there is no reason another candidate cannot win those states

[Demsrule86]

61. So you think Warren or Harris can win those states in a general? It we won't happen.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. lol so it's based off something that you don't agree with. Not zero proof.

[Celerity]

27. you do not have exclusives on a crystal ball

sorry, but FAIL

[Drunken Irishman]

30. Not fail.

There's ample proof that, right now, Biden is the strongest candidate.

[Celerity]

32. no, your line of certainty is a fail, it is far from a concrete fact

You do not have a crystal ball. You are representing your preference as a done deal and a self-reinforcing truism. Not buying it at all.

[Demsrule86]

34. It is a free country....unless of course Trump wins again.

[Celerity]

35. Biden is not the only person on the planet between us and a Trump win.

[Demsrule86]

62. I think he is.

[Celerity]

65. we disagree and will continue to do so, on this

That statement is far too strong, far too based on so many assumptions that are variables, not etched-in-stone immutable facts, and is far too narrow, too limiting, and too dismissive of the process.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. I'm representing the polls, buddy.

The facts tell a story that Biden is the strongest candidate in the general right now. But I'd happily hear your argument, with some solid evidence, on why he's not.

It's not about a crystal ball. A team could be up 3-0 in the playoffs and it's fact to say they're better positioned, and have a stronger chance, to win the series than the team down 0-3. It's not a done deal, which I never claimed, only a likely result.

[Celerity]

38. oki BUDDY you do that, history is littered with people who bet the farm on sure things and polls

In case that wasn't clear, as a woman I detest being called buddy.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. No one is betting the farm on anything...

I don't like your dismissive, snide comment blabbering about my post being a 'FAIL'. You're debating in hyperbole and straw-man. The fact is, friend, Biden is the best positioned right now. To suggest otherwise is to deny reality.

[Celerity]

43. you do not have a singular claim on a reality that is not remotely fully shaped yet

[Drunken Irishman]

44. I have the reality of now.

And right now, Biden does best against Trump - in both national polls and state polls. That's the reality.

Still waiting for you to prove that point wrong.

[Celerity]

45. I'll only support Biden in the general, that's my reality, I don't like his stances on a variety

of things, both historical and present. The reality is Biden is up due to a large degree due to name recognition and an association with Obama. That may well be enough to carry him all the way to the nomination, but both those can be overcome by other candidates, and Pete is far from the only one. If I see another who can block him and grasp the nomination, I will vote (more than likely) for that person.

The history of front-runners this early surely goes some way towards disproving your cock-sure positing btw.

[Drunken Irishman]

48. What cock-sure? I am only pointing out Biden is doing the best head-to-head.

And therefore, at the moment, is the strongest head-to-head vs Trump.

[Celerity]

50. I can accept that manner of putting it

[Cha]

55. ..

[Drunken Irishman]

28. This is factually incorrect...

Trump doesn't even need to win all three. He can lose Wisconsin and Michigan but win Pennsylvania and he wins reelection unless the Dems steal another state Trump won in 2016. So, it's even tougher than you suggest.

[Demsrule86]

33. Yes, but that is the point. Biden was born in PA and is loved there...he is our best chance

I don't believe anyone else can do it.

[Celerity]

37. seeing as I am being accused of not looking at 'maps' let me re-enforce your post

Trump doesn't even need to win all three. He can lose Wisconsin and Michigan but win Pennsylvania and he wins

Assumes Rump loses PA and MI, holds the others



or

lets say he loses all 3 (WI, MI, PA)

if he flips NV and NH (hardly impossible, he lost NH by 2,729 votes, NV by 27,202), he still wins



If Rump wins PA and WI

we can flip NC or GA (not both) and still lose






Finally, Rump can lose NV, WI, MI, and NC, but as long as he wins PA and NH, he wins via the House (the Rethugs hold 26 state delegations in the US house, and the only real shot we have to deny them the 26th vote is FL, and the only vulnerable Rethug seat there won by almost 30,000 votes in 2018, Mast- FL-18), whilst we have 7 fairly close ones to defend, 7th, 9th, 13th, 14th, 22nd, 26th, 27th). We have no other states to flip (WI would be, but they are so so gerrymandered)

[Demsrule86]

63. This map shows clearly that our only real path is to rebuild the rustbelt.

Biden can win all three states. And consider, this is an ongoing problem. We are in danger of losing the rustbelt permanently. And we lose most presidential elections if this happens.

[Demsrule86]

59. Biden will win PA...hands down. No other candidate will do so.

[Demsrule86]

16. It is what I believe. Have you looked at an electoral map...done any calculations?

[Celerity]

24. you know I have, I have so many posts with electoral maps up

[Demsrule86]

29. So do I. Do you think Mayor Pete can win a general?

[Celerity]

31. there are other better options than Biden, Pete is far from the only one

[Demsrule86]

39. I don't see any better options to win the states we need.

I do not believe a policy laundry listwe will win this election.

[Celerity]

41. time will tell, it is far too early for the certainty

I do respect your steadfast opinion, I just do not entirely agree at all. I never (no one I socialise with in real life with does) react well to to being told we only have one choice to win when there are (at present) many.

I will be 10000% on the Biden train if he does manage to win the nomination, but he is far down my list (I would like to think I have some street cred and history on this, and never be thought of as some jill-come-lately pile-on specialist over this Hyde issue).

[Demsrule86]

56. I live on Ohio. I used to live in PA...I just want to win. The other candidates will

be painted as socialists. Is it true...no. But they wil be just the same. The laundry list of policy such as the green new deal or MFA will help in the primary but will destroy a Demoratic nominee in the general. This won't happen to Biden as he was in the Senate and was VP for eight years...well known. All Trump has to do is take PA,WI and MI...He wins again. And we could lose the house. Perhaps younger more progressive seeming candidates are exciting and eill be elected as president in the future. I hope so. But right now we have to win in the present in a center left country. Biden has a shot...a good one. But I don't see Warren, Sanders or Harris wining the must win rustbelt states in a general. Winning is everything this particular election.

[Demsrule86]

57. Like who? You talk policy and that is important but losers in an election don't get

to advance policy. Trump will be tough to beat...

[JI7]

10. before the Russian attack on the elections Democrats won those 3 states for 6 straight

elections. and 2016 was very close and the problem was end of voting rights, Russian attacks on the election.

no matter who the nominee is we will have to consider those things.

[Demsrule86]

12. Close elections are easy to steal...won't be close with Biden. He is our only shot.

[JI7]

15. 2000 shld 2004 was close and Democrats won those. 2016 was about the attacks on the elections

that will happen no matter who the candidate is.

[Demsrule86]

18. We lost both 2000 and 2004.

There was also Comey and the Stein witch.

[JI7]

20. we won MI WI and PA which you claim only Biden can do

but that 3 states were won by Democrats in 6 straight elections.

and the reason we didn't in 2016 had to do with the attack on the elections.

[Demsrule86]

25. This was before we started winning Virginia and one other state maybe Nevada or

Colorado....we needed Florida or Ohio in addition to the blue wall...but had we retained the blue wall in 16 ,Hllary would be President. We can't win the electoral college without those states. This will be true in 24 as well. Look at the senate map...you see our issue. Without big tent appeal, we lose. We must win with moderates. The 18 house races clearly show us the path. Without a candidate like Biden who can appeal to moderates,we could also lose the house.

[Demsrule86]

60. Look as the the map...take PA, WI and MI out of the 'D' column...now

What? We lose unless we take Arizona, Georgia and / or Texas. This is unlikely to happen this year.


https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

[BannonsLiver]

21. Yeah it's a good group

I know you’re ABB but perhaps it’ll end up where you can bring yourself to vote for him if he is the nominee.

[Celerity]

49. obviously I will vote for him IF he is the nominee, I have made that clear in a myriad of posts

And I am not ABB

here is my no-go list (except the general)

I would support Biden over all of these (in no order)

Bernie
Gabbard
Gravel
de Blasio
Delaney
Hickenlooper
Messam
Moulton
Ryan
Yang
Williamson

my preferences atm (in order)


Pete
Warren
Harris
Inslee
Booker
Bullock
Beto
Castro
Bennet
Swalwell
Klobuchar
Biden
Gillibrand

Stacey Abrams would instantly be top 5 if she declares.

[redstateblues]

51. I like Mayor Pete but he has a serious diversity problem

which unsolved will spell doom for him on Super Tuesday

[Cha]

53. lol

[Blue_true]

46. I am liking Senator Warren more by the day.

I do think the debates will come down to an intellectual slugfest between her and Mayor Pete. That is going to be well worth watching.

[Demsrule86]

58. I don't think Warren can win a general.

[Blue_true]

66. I don't agree with you.

She is good at going into areas that are anti to her and getting people to think about how they are voting without sacrificing her principles. All she needs to do in a purple state like mine is use that tactic to suppress 800 republican votes while getting 800 democrats who were not going to vote to vote for her, she does that, she wins Florida.

Plus, we have no idea where the economy will be in 17 months. It really looks like Trump has screwed up critical foundations and the economy is starting to run out of gas. His mindless BS about tariffs only make that situation much worse.

Our side is always saying that someone on our side can't win. Republicans never do that. As a consequence we have lost races that we should have won.

[Demsrule86]

67. Time will tell but she will not attract moderate voters in my view in rustbelt states.

[Blue_true]

68. A lot of those voters agree with her ideas on fair taxation and healthcare.

She seems to be the type that will go everywhere while still faithfully and professionally doing her primary job, the contrast between her and Trump will be monumental and work to her advantage, IMO.

[Demsrule86]

71. Issues will not win the rusrbelt...

[Blue_true]

72. Matter of opinion. She has also laid out plans for job growth, which WILL play in the Midwest. nt

[cwydro]

40. I've switched my preference to Warren.

She, Biden, Buttigieg, and Harris are almost in a tie with me.

I’m just not liking these early missteps of Biden’s.

[Blue_true]

47. Who did you support before?

I too am liking Senator Wareen more and more. She has true conviction, thinks things through well and can explain them and she is unflappable. I also like that she is willing to do campaign stops in small and ignored places, I think that tendency is KEY for winning purple states in 2020.

[cwydro]

54. Biden, but I also like Buttigieg and Harris.

Lucky to have such candidates!

[Cosmocat]

64. EW was my #1

before I tuned into Buttigieg.
She is a very close second now.
I like Harris, too, but a clear step down from the top 2.
I am OK with Biden, I get the appeal, and have an objective view of the D voter base, where he was always going to have more appeal than some think. I also think he is the best shot to get our world partners to be more comfortable with us, because he is a known commodity to them, and someone they will trust and respect personally, though they may never trust us again after electing 45.

[aikoaiko]

69. Weird, the headline and even the link changed to 11 point differential.

I'm glad to see that Elizabeth Warren is coming up.

I can't wait to see her address Biden in the debates over his protection for credit card companies.

[Andy823]

70. So why did you leave out Kamala Harris?

" Another 40 percent would consider supporting Sen. Kamala Harris."

Only 1 point from Warren.