There might only be three tickets out of Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Joe
Liz
Pete

...

[Turin_C3PO]

1. Probably Sanders too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. He's coming perilously close to falling out of the top three.

A fourth place finish and he's likely done.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Yes, it looks like it's Joe at the top

with the other three competing for second place.

[democratisphere]

6. Hopefully Harris will take over 4th.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It's a long way from the lip to the cup.

That being said she likely needs a breakout in IA to become a player.

[democratisphere]

13. Hopefully some of the 1%ers will see the light and step aside to allow

the stronger candidates to strengthen their positions.

[Blue_true]

21. I sort of feel the early debates will do Bernie in.

Warren will be the beneficiary of that.

[Hortensis]

27. :) Let's hope so. But Sanders has his Only-Sanders camp.

Plus, he owes what success he's had almost entirely to his talented authoritarian-lite delivery, outside of massive media support from the right and Russia of course. While others will be starved out by lack of funders, I don't see that happening to him this time either.

Speaking of who he might lose support to with debates, though, how about Marianne Williamson also? She's a former Sanders supporter who's running on his positions but moderated and without the 1960s socialist revolution, replaces his cranky angst-stirring delivery with her mystic but sensible feel-good spirituality, and is an extremely talented and inspirational Sarah Palin-level speaker. She's a third party-style alternative but already available during the party primaries.

[Blue_true]

32. I think the Sanders only contigent is a lot smaller than they would like to think.

I see some of his past avid supporters here on DU appearing to have doubts. Some of those people were already ok with Warren though.

[Hortensis]

33. :) Agree with that, and it's proven many times over.

I'm guessing most of them were actually first strongly drawn to Warren. While she successfully fought to create the Consumer Protection Agency and called for the need to restore regulations on business, I-Sanders was still obscure.

I do agree with you that Iowa will likely show definitively that, as far as the people go, he's already lost. But, deja vu all over again?

After all, Sanders stayed in for months after he was known to have no chance, delayed conceding for yet another month while he may have been waiting for something to happen, and then left as bitter and angry as if he really believed what he'd been telling his supporters about Democratic Party election theft in dozens of states.

And, again, I believe heavy RW/Russia media promotion if nothing else will mean he won't run out of money as others do; those "$27s" will continue to dribble in. And once again he won't have to pay for advertising to stay in the minds of the electorate as long as certain elements in the MSM, including the AP and NYT, can use him to help defeat Democrats.

[George II]

4. Joe's holding steady, Elizabeth and Peter are trending, the others are falling back.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Liz is a dagger aimed at Senator Sanders' support.

[George II]

9. Even more interesting than Iowa is New Hampshire. That's his wheelhouse, and she's zeroing in on it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. If/when he finishes fourth in IA he's likely finished.

[rampartc]

8. bernie, the likely winner in new hampshire, will go that far.

and remember, winning a lot of southern primaries on super tuesday might mean delegates at our convention, but not many electoral votes for any democrat will come from those states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Obama won FL, NC, and VA

They have way more Electoral College votes than PA, WI, and MI

[Turin_C3PO]

17. Looks like Joe might put Texas in play also.

Wouldn’t that be great to make Republicans have to spend oodles of cash in Texas?

[BannonsLiver]

14. NH voters seem to like to check Iowa voters

We’ve seen that the last few contested cycles in 2004, 2008 and 2016 where NH voters picked another candidate than the one who won Iowa. I could see Bernie winning NH. I could also see Warren and Biden winning as well. Long way to go.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. For the sake of argument if Bernie finishes fourth in IA no way he wins NH

Second place will get all the buzz.

[BannonsLiver]

18. That's a good point as well.

I don’t think Bernie is going to win either. If I had to put a bet down tonight it would be on Biden in NH. Warren to place. Bernie to show.

[Blue_true]

23. Unless some fat guy does a "boy in the bubble" number on the second place person out of Iowa. nt

[Blue_true]

22. Florida is the third biggest state in the country behind California and Texas.

It also has a closed prinary. Joe should romp there and Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. That combination of states pretty much seals the nomination for him. The last accounting that I saw had Joe leading Bernie in New Hampshire by a bit, with Liz closing in on Bernie from behind. Bernie very well could come in third in New Hampshire, at that point he is pretty much done because he likely won't take California to offset Joe's power in big population southern states.

[highplainsdem]

28. Bernie is NOT the likely winner in NH. The latest polls show him with only about half

Biden's support there:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

[dsc]

11. Unless Harris gets obliterated she doesn't need to win, place, or show in Iowa

provided she gets good early vote in California and does well in SC. Pete most assuredly needs to be in that top 3 as do Sanders and Warren.

[Blue_true]

24. I sort of agree.

If Harris is seen as a competitor to Joe when the race reaches the more racially diverse southern states, the calculus changes bigtime.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Expectations are a fickle thing.

They can lift you up and tear you down.

Case in point: Howard Dean.

If, at the beginning of 2003, you had told the Dean campaign they would've finished third in Iowa, they would have taken it in a heartbeat.

The problem some candidates may find themselves in is that they build such high expectations that, if they don't place third in iowa, it torpedoes their chances.

[Gothmog]

19. Agreed

[Blue_true]

20. I think Harris will squeeze out of Iowa and pray for Super Tuesday to come fast.

I believe in the end things are going to come down to a battle between Liz and Joe with Harris or Buttigieg being the VP choice of the winner (in that race I think Harris wins due to broader appeal).

[MineralMan]

25. There could be only two. Or even one.

The 15% rule is going to be in play in that state, as it will in all states.

[haydukelives]

26. Joe will keep talking

and fall out of the top three

[gopiscrap]

29. I would also say possibly Sanders and Harris

In addition to those three

[comradebillyboy]

30. Although only three may exceed the 15% criteria Iowa

isn't a make or break state. A few of the other candidates will keep going until a more favorable state either boosts them or sinks them. SC and California are the real make or brake tests.

[Politicub]

31. Liz? It took me a minute to figure out who you're referring to

And then it hit me... Elizabeth Warren. I haven't seen anyone call her Liz.

I agree with the first two names on your list, but not Pete. As much as I would love for Pete to do well there, I think he has an increasingly steeper uphill battle. I say this as a strong Buttigieg supporter who believes he will be president one day.