How Steve Bullock Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary

[question everything]

UPDATE (June 6, 11:43 a.m., 2019): The Democratic National Committee on June 6 said that it would not include open-ended polls from ABC News/Washington Post when determining which candidates qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates. As a result, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has yet to qualify.

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Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced Tuesday that he’s seeking the Democratic nomination for president, and even though he is relatively late to join the race, he is, according to our research, the 19th candidate to qualify for the first two debates this summer. (He is also the 21st “major” Democratic presidential candidate by FiveThirtyEight’s standards.) Bullock starts off an underdog — though perhaps less of one than some of the other non-name-brand candidates to join the race in recent weeks. That’s because Bullock may have a good strategy for winning voters over. In a May 8 tweet, he said, “As the only Democrat to win statewide re-election in a Trump state in 2016, I know firsthand: we must reach out to rural voters.”

And this message might resonate. As we know from polls, many Democratic voters think it’s a very important consideration to nominate a candidate who can beat President Trump, and as a white man, Bullock may benefit from perceptions that he is “electable.” But he has empirical evidence for it, too: He has won three statewide elections in red, heavily rural Montana — one for attorney general and two for governor. In 2016, he won his second gubernatorial term with 50 percent of the vote, 15 points more than Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

And Bullock remains well liked in Big Sky Country — his net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in the first quarter of 2019 was +26 points, according to Morning Consult. That is a remarkable achievement considering Montana’s Republican lean and ranks Bullock fifth in the nation in our Popularity Above Replacement Governor statistic, which compares a governor’s actual popularity to what it “should” be based on partisanship alone.

(snip)

So far, rank-and-file voters have shown little interest in Bullock. Relatively few have Googled his name. And despite qualifying for the upcoming Democratic debates by getting 1 percent or more in three Democratic National Committee-approved polls, Bullock has yet to exceed that share in any survey. Low name recognition is most likely a factor, and that suggests Bullock has room to improve. According to a Morning Consult poll released last week, 54 percent of potential Democratic primary voters nationwide had never heard of Bullock, and a majority of those who had heard of him did not have an opinion of him yet.

Being one of the few governors in the race also probably means that Bullock starts in a better position than some of the current or former U.S. representatives in the race, such as Tulsi Gabbard or John Delaney — traditionally, a governorship has been the most common stepping stone to the presidency, as well as to a presidential nomination. But unfortunately for Bullock, there’s not much about the 2020 election that’s traditional.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-steve-bullock-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary/

[Drunken Irishman]

1. A plane carrying Biden, Sanders, Warren, Mayor Pete, Harris and Beto crashes?

[uawchild]

2. And that plane had to crash on Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar when they were having lunch.

nice one!

[TeamPooka]

4. and Gillibrand, Inslee, Yang, and Castro die trying to save them all.

[Thunderbeast]

3. Steve Bullock may not be the guy, but...

Democrats ignore the flyover states at their strategic peril. Elections for President and Senate majorities are stacked in favor of these low-population states. Rural voters will have more leverage as the population migrates to the coasts. States each get two Senators regardless of size.

Rural towns are struggling. In the west, small towns are dying as access to Federal lands for extraction industries shrinks. With little opportunity for a future, young people flee to urban areas. Farming does not provide enough high-value jobs.

Main streets are boarded up. Retailers can't make it. Dollar Stores on the edge of town are now the source for groceries.

Bullock is pushing back on what has become Democratic orthodoxy. Government has not served many rural voters well. They are skeptical of urban ideas as a template for their problems.

If Democrats can't compete in these states, a meaningful Senate majority or Electoral College victory will be much harder to attain.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. Bullock will also need to speak

To the tax payers in states that are suffering the most under the punitive tax code implemented by Trump and McConnell - the heads of the GOP.

I need one of these candidates to point blank state one of their key goals will be to lift the SALT Cap. I would also like them to clearly state that Trade and Tariff *edicts* Will be removed by pen and paper on day one.

These aren't things that fly over country care about - I get that. They aren't commited to educating their children and providing a highly skilled work force for the future. They have no skin in the game.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

6. Good post and makes it a shame he will not be at the debate

Sometimes debates are most useful to hear from longshot/extremely unlikely candidates to win because they have a different motivation to speak.

Some of them are single issue candidates and want to precipitate that discussion which otherwise might be overlooked. And others know their role is to bring a different point of view.

It's all well and good Senators and congressmen and women visiting Iowa and New Hampshire etc to gauge the mood on the ground. But a Governor who is on the ground every day working for those constituents knows exactly what the issues are, why they are problematic, and how to work around a federal government that works counter-productively to the needs of the people.

Governors are not just talking to people in these towns and states, they are responsible for them.

[question everything]

8. Well said. I just donted to him yesterday

May be too late to qualify and, like you, I am not sure that he should be the candidate but he should get exposure way before others, like deBlasio and Williamson.

[Hortensis]

7. Heard he's not been able to qualify for the debates. Yet.

[Blue_Tires]

9. 1. Who the fuck is Steve Bullock?

2. Why are so many people married to the notion that rural conservative white folks are somehow the holy grail in 2020?

[question everything]

10. He is the governor of Montana. Common wisdom has been that governors are the best

fit for the presidency in that they have executive experience. Carter, Reagan, Bush Jr., Clinton. Also, he is a Democrat who won in Trump country.

2. No, they are not the holy grail. But they often are swept to the sidelines with urban areas, especially on the coasts dominate. The fact is that rural areas carry heavy part in determining the outcome of the elections. Yes, it is not fair that 40 million California and 600,000 Wyoming each has two senators and the proportion of rural electoral college does weigh in their favor.

Rural Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin brought Trump to the White House. So we need to, yes, cater to them. Last, farmers in the Midwest have been suffering. First by weather and then by the tariffs. Right now they do support Trump but we should not, as much as we want to, just tell them to drop dead but try to entice them.

[Blue_Tires]

11. For starters...

1. Carter, Reagan, Bush Jr., and Clinton all came from much more diverse states than Montana...

2. Given that racial scapegoating against minorities played such a huge role in so many of these rural farming areas, you'll excuse me if I don't rush to kiss their asses to bring them into the fold... I'd just as soon do all I can to get regular Dems out to the polls...