Polls? Really? Until we are well into the debates, all these polls are little more than diddly squat

[mtnsnake]

You might think that this is all about Joe Biden because of his commanding lead in the polls, but it is not all about him. In all honesty, I think he is at the biggest disadvantage of anyone because his poll numbers started out way too high, way too early on.

I think the only thing that the polls reflect right now is the popularity of the few candidates who have been highlighted by the mainstream media so far. The more that the 4 or 5 front-runners are highlighted, the more name recognition they get, and the more they're apt to get another bump in the polls from the additional exposure, followed by even more name recognition as their numbers rise. Then the ones at the bottom who need the name recognition the most don't get the exposure they deserve because who wants to hear from someone who is only polling at 3 or 4 percent, right? Many of the people being polled probably haven't even heard of half of our candidates. Worse than that, half the people being polled might not even vote in the Primary.

Only until we are heavily into the campaign and into the debates will the voters get to see and hear the other candidates, many who will suprise the viewers by how talented they are. Only until then will the voters be able to make a much better judgment call about who they like best. For all we know, someone like Steve Bullock, who didn't even qualify for the first debate, could end up blowing everyone else out of the water if he ever gets an equal opportunity to be heard. It isn't far fetched to think it could happen. OTOH, maybe Joe Biden will prove me wrong and continue topping out the numbers right until the end, but I doubt it.

Once we're a few weeks away from the election, the polls might have a little meaning. Maybe. At this point, though, I think the only possible significance that we might get from any poll is whether or not someone's numbers are rising or falling drastically. Even then, it all depends on whether or not the numbers are being manipulated by the pollsters own methodology or not, which I suspect is often the case. Other than that, any projections from any Democratic Primary polls out there right now are about as likely to occur as a 10 day weather forecast being accurate on days 9 and 10. JMO of course.

[jberryhill]

1. Yup

[Kurt V.]

2. yes. wait till the normies get interested

[sheshe2]

3. My opinion of the polls?

People are listening and that is a wonderful thing.

[VarryOn]

4. I can hardly wait for the debates...

While I've enjoyed watching and listening to our deep bench, I'm ready to see it narrow down to the candidates who have a tuely plausible chance. I'd like to see us down to 7 or 8 who are super-strong, exciting and inspiring who repectfully challenge each other and make them even stronger in the general.

[mtnsnake]

5. Same here. We have so many talented candidates

and once the general public gets to hear and see them in the debates and elsewhere in the campaign, I think they will be incredibly impressed with how much smarter and more honest that Democrats are in comparison to the corrupt assholes on the other side of the aisle.

[Honeycombe8]

10. I want to see the list whittled down to 4.

I'm guessing it'll be Biden, Sanders, Warren, and either Harris or Buttegieg. But we'll see.

[SMC22307]

6. Agree. And quite franky, this whole process shouldn't start...

until at least September. It's waaaaay too early.

[beachbum bob]

7. really ? There are 16 or 17 candidates that will be gone reguardless of debates

[Martin Eden]

8. The horse race does not interest me, especially this early in the campaign

Democrats should be diving deep into issues, ideas, and policies.

Discuss what our government needs to be doing, then see which candidates emerge as the best leaders to carry that vision forward.

[JI7]

9. even the debates wont matter that much unless one does very horribly

it will be about the ground campaign.

[brooklynite]

11. No, they're not

It's fair to say that the actual vote count will likely have little comparison to today's polling, but the polling range today is an indicator of which candidates are serious and which are not. If you're polling 1-5% (including my candidate) you're very unlikely to work your way up into the top tier where you can then work to improve your vote count.