Listening to a 538 podcast with a Rep strategist, and his big

[OnDoutside]

thing is that he will be shocked if Biden wins the nomination. That said, I think he is underestimating the effect of their 25 years negative Clinton attacks had on the last election, AND subsequently in a non presidential mid term, Dems still got huge numbers out. The guy is nuts

Has anyone seen numbers on what those negatives were worth ?

[marylandblue]

1. I don't think he's nuts. Clinton did have a lot of baggage, but

Biden has some too and it is being used against him already.

Plus, even though he is the front runner, he is polling relatively poorly compared to past front runners. He still has work to do to get the majority on his side.

[Hortensis]

4. Exactly. Swiftboaters manufactured years of fake baggage,

and they and the press hauled it everywhere she went.

Marylandblue, name even one of the many investigations over 35 years that found what it alleged to be looking for. You know, what they call "the baggage" in lieu of the specific criminal or severe ethical violations they pretend it is. Every one of them effectively proved her clean.

[marylandblue]

8. I didn't say she deserved it, just that, in general, a long DC track record gives a lot to attack.

It's often unfair, triply so for Clinton. But even people like Kerry and McCain were attacked for things they did in Washington by relative outsiders who didn't face the same choices.

I really think this is already hurt Biden, and you can see it in the type of attacks he is taking in from his own party. Trump will be much worse.

This will not be a fair election. Not in the primary and even worse in the general. You can complain about it, or you can just take for what it is.

[marylandblue]

12. I have no idea why you are focusing on Clinton when I keep pointing out

that it's a problem for everyone who has been in Washington too long and provided multiple examples.

Clinton had it far worse than anybody else, but Biden is not completely immune. We are kidding ourselves if we don't realize how this will hurt Biden, and it should play a big role in any assessment of his real chances.

[marylandblue]

16. It's okay, I understand. We were all disappointed by her loss.

[Hortensis]

18. Biden's role in putting Clarence Thomas on

the supreme court, a hard-core conservative and judicial extremist who was unfit in literally every important way, is real baggage. It’s unfortunately not a lie. He owns that appalling failure of duty.

It’s Obamas respect for and belief in him that caused me to think he’s grown considerably since then. For decades I wouldn’t support him, but Obama knows him very well, and I trust Obama’s judgment.

[Indygram]

14. Beto got those nasty ads in his Texas race and still got more votes than any Dem in TX history

The fact that he is battle tested is one of the biggest reasons that Democrats will be very, very foolish to overlook him. He can withstand those attacks.

[marylandblue]

6. It was worse for Clinton, but every long-time Washington resident has the same problem.

I think it's a big part of why governors like Carter, Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Bush II beat long-time Senators and VPs. Obama was a first term Senator and so had little to attack. Some thought he should have waited, but I think he knew it would only hurt his chances.

The biggest exception was Bush I, and he was living in the reflected glory of Reagan. But he only lasted one term because he wasn't Reagan.

[OnDoutside]

3. Not on the Biden thing but that they'll do much better amongst

African Americans and college educated women etc

I should have explained further.

[LuvNewcastle]

5. I don't think Biden will win the nomination either.

If the younger people vote in large numbers this time, and I think they might, Biden won't make it.

[flamingdem]

9. Who do you think they'll vote for?

Elizabeth Warren will be 70 years old Bernie Sanders 78.

[LuvNewcastle]

10. A moderate younger candidate, I'm thinking.

If they go more liberal, Kamala Harris has a good chance. I think the rule of the Baby Boomers is about to end.

[marylandblue]

15. Warren really doesn't look or act 70.

She has as much energy and enthusiasm as any of the younger candidates. I think her years of teaching have kept her young.