WA Post: 4 of top 5 Dem candidates to share 2nd night debate stage after a "lopsided drawing"

[pnwmom]

The DNC said the top candidates would be spread between the two nights, but apparently they thought a simple drawing would achieve that result. Anyone with any background in statistics would know that wouldn't be the case -- there were too few candidates to assure that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-sanders-to-share-the-stage-at-first-night-of-back-to-back-democratic-debates/2019/06/14/dc0b5d52-8e99-11e9-adf3-f70f78c156e8_story.html?utm_term=.024e6075f83e

The lineup was set on Friday for back-to-back Democratic presidential debates later this month, after a lopsided drawing that placed most of the top candidates on a second night that is shaping up to be the marquee event.

The second night will feature former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the two leading candidates in early polling, in what could be an epic clash over whether the future of the party rests in democratic socialism or bipartisan pragmatism.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has surged in recent state and national polls, is the biggest draw of the first night, which could work to her benefit by allowing her to stand out. But it also could lack the drama — and television ratings — of the second night. It could also provide other candidates that night, such as former congressman Beto O’Rourke (Tex.) or senators Cory Booker (N.J.) and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), an opportunity to break through.

SNIP

While the lineups were chosen through a randomized drawing — with candidates’ names written out on note cards and drawn to make two groups of 10 — four of the five top-polling candidates ended up clumped together. NBC News, which along with MSNBC and Telemundo will air the events, chose to hold that debate second as a way to increase ratings, which sparked protest from the Democratic National Committee and frustration from some of the presidential campaigns.

SNIP

“There are two reasons why night two will be advantageous,” said an adviser to one of the campaigns, speaking on the condition of anonymity to converse freely. “There is definitely a benefit to seeing the night before, the rhythm of the thing. Also any of the [video] clips of night one will be quickly consumed by the preview of night two.”

[4139]

1. My suggestion back in May was, and I was right...

“ Using the polls I would seat them....

1,3,5 as one debate
2,4,6 in the other
And the rest fill by lottery

If they do it all by lottery and wind up with the 4-5 leading candidate in one debate, very few people will watch the other debate “
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12128117

[pnwmom]

2. I thought they would do something like that, when they promised

that the top candidates were spread over the two nights.

They should have known that a random draw including the top 5 or 6 wouldn't be likely to produce a balanced result.

[Blue_true]

3. I think what happened was the large number of candidates in the draw

blew things up. When there are 20 random choices, bunching 3 or 4 that meet a close category becomes much more likely.

Like the other post said, maybe they should have first done a random drawing with the top six in national polling, place them in each debate, then do a random drawing to place the remaining 14 into a debate group.

The way things worked out was pretty ideal for NBC, it can drive high ratings both nights by playing with scheduling (as it did).

[womanofthehills]

4. Something about this seems very wrong to me