July National Poll: Biden extends lead in Democratic Primary, Trump Closes the Gap in the General...

[DonViejo]

July National Poll: Biden extends lead in Democratic Primary, Trump Closes the Gap in the General Election.

ON JULY 8, 2019 IN POLLS

The first Democratic debate has shaken up the race for the Democratic nomination. Compared to June’s national poll, former VP Joe Biden extended his lead, Sen. Bernie Sanders lost ground, Sen. Kamala Harris doubled her support, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren held steady. Despite Biden losing 4 points of his support from 34% to 30%, he extended his lead in the Democratic primary from 7 points in June to 15 points, as his main rival, Sanders dropped 12 points to 15% from his June number of 27%. Harris saw her numbers improve 8 points to 15%, and Warren ticked up one point from June to 15% of the vote, creating a three way tie for second. The data was collected July 6-8 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.



Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters said they followed the Democratic debates. A plurality of viewers, 30%, said Harris had the best debate performance. Eighteen percent (18%) of voters said Biden performed the best, 13% said Warren, and 10% chose Sanders. Conversely, when asked which candidate had the worst performance, 19% of voters said Biden, 15% said Sanders, and 13% said O’Rourke performed the worst.

Of those who watched all, some, or followed the media coverage of the debates, Biden receives 25% of the Democratic primary vote, but of those who did not watch/follow debates, he receives 39% of the vote. Conversely, Harris receives 18% of the vote among those who watched all, some or followed the debates, and 11% of the vote among those who did not. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “these numbers suggest that the Democratic field is still fluid and that Biden will need to improve upon his performance to maintain his lead”.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, but the majority, 60%, say they could still be persuaded by another candidate. Sanders and Biden continue to have the most loyal supporters as 55% of Sanders supporters will definitely vote for him and 51% of Biden supporters will definitely for him. Comparatively, 37% of Harris and 26% of Warren supporters have made a definitive choice of which candidate to support.

more
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/

[George II]

1. One of the biggest surprises in this poll is that BS lost almost half his support (27% to 15%)

[hlthe2b]

2. Dem Primary findings pretty consistent with Morning Consult today...

[andym]

3. National poll and only Biden is beating Trump outside the MOE

Trump is definitely doing better for some reason. Only Bernie and Joe are not underwater against Trump, and Bernie is within the MOE.

[Kaleva]

6. Actually, he isn't.

With a MOE of +/- 4.4, Trump could actually be leading Biden.

[andym]

8. Actually you are correct

I didn't realize the MOE was as large +-4.4%.

[Cha]

4. I read the psycho's

lead got better after the Dem debates.. Hopefully that will be Temporary.

[onetexan]

5. Whoa, that's quite a revealing graph

i'm of the opinion all candidates under 3% should drop out and endorse one of the other candidates to shrink the field.

[ucrdem]

7. It's really leveling out!