New Economist/YouGov poll has Biden at +5 lead.

[bluewater]

Last edited Wed Jul 10, 2019, 02:33 PM - Edit history (1)

The economist/YouGov poll has been one of the lower ones for Biden, with him polling in the mid 20's%

This week's poll stayed fairly unchanged:

Biden drifted down from 23% to 22% this week.
Warren moved down from 19% to 17%,
Harris stayed steady 14% to 14%
Sanders went up 9% to 11%.
Buttigieg moved down from 8% to 5%.

Biden's lead increased 1% to +5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#poll

Bluewater's Disclaimer: This is a very early poll. No single poll's results, especially this early, should be over emphasized.

[%'s updated to conform to internal Table, not RCP's summary which is different by 1% for several candidates]

[still_one]

1. and national polls are not how candiddates win the nomination, or win the general election

States determine that

[LakeArenal]

2. Is that your disclaimer or realclear's?

[bluewater]

4. Anything under the link is usually viewed as being from the poster of the OP.

That seems to be standard practice, but, I will make it more clear it's my personal disclaimer, though sites like 538 repeatedly state something similar at this point in time.

Thanks.

[LakeArenal]

5. Exactly. Every poll says it because it is early.

[wyldwolf]

6. It's his/her's obviously

Because Warren is down.

Early polls are important as a snapshot for what the electorate is thinking. Consistent results from poll to poll week over week show a pattern.

[LakeArenal]

8. 😉

[bluewater]

9. lol weak sauce

It's the same disclaimer I am using for all the poll results, even when,*gasp*, Warren and Harris go up.

Anyone can see that for themselves:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=195825

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=195860



facts are stubborn things, eh?

[wyldwolf]

11. weak sauce? What are you, a high school kid?

It's the same disclaimer I am using for all the poll results, even when,*gasp*, Warren and Harris go up.

Which still doesn't make your statement true.

[bluewater]

13. What part do you think is untrue?

Bluewater's Disclaimer: This is a very early poll. No single poll's results, especially this early, should be over emphasized.


No SINGLE poll's results should be over emphasized this early. You are saying that's false?

Didn't you just mention something about a TREND, right? lol

But, you need more than a SINGLE poll to indicate a TREND.

boom. mic drop.



Thanks for the discussion.

[wyldwolf]

15. The entire thing

A single poll may not be able to tell you who’s going to win the Democratic Party nomination, but it can tell you a good deal about what people are thinking so far, drive a media narrative for at least one news cycle, and cause candidates to alter courses.

And similar polls that show similar numbers become a trend.

boom. mic drop.



You're not done with the discussion.

[LanternWaste]

17. You may want to avoid using 'mic drop' until you become familiar w/ it's meaning.

Or, you can simply dig in further, allege that you already know its meaning and that it is somehow relevant.

[marlakay]

3. I wonder how they decide who to poll

I have been doing surveys and polls for them for ten years and about once or twice a month get political ones. I like those the best. Haven't had one in awhile.

They always ask you which party you are in if you are a strong democrat or not and if you plan to vote in primary.

So after years of me and I am sure others saying exactly how we believe they can easily pick people to answer any way they want.

[LakeArenal]

7. Then there are people like me who are never polled because we won't answer the phone.

[marlakay]

10. The you gov polls are online

But you sign up with full information it's a serious real thing. Address, phone number etc

You get points for every survey and a $25 gift certificate after 30,000 points which takes me about a year to get so like me most people just do it for fun. They mail you the GC so they know if it's real address.

[LakeArenal]

12. Interesting.

[bluewater]

14. I think the MorningConsult poll does something similar.

I was told it's done online also.

Would you know where to sign up for online polls like these? I mailed MorningConsult and never got an answer.

[marlakay]

22. Sorry it's been so many years

I forget. I think it changed name also from polling point to yougov.

[highplainsdem]

16. 5 point lead. Warren at 17%, not 18%. Link to PDF file of the poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf


See page 149 for first choice among Democratic primary candidates.

[bluewater]

18. Thanks, RCP still has 18% on their summary.

Would you have a more exact link? That one has 360 tables listed. Help out a person with bad eyes. lol

What # table was it and I will update the OP.

[highplainsdem]

19. Yes, they got it wrong. I noticed lots of tweets this morning mentioning a 4% lead, and lots

mentioning the 5% lead the poll reported. Took me some checking to figure out why there was that discrepancy.

I hope RCP corrects this soon.

[bluewater]

20. Ok, I found the right table. Thanks.

Op is updated, edit noted.

Thanks again.

[highplainsdem]

21. You're welcome! Thanks for updating the OP.

It had been very confusing here with DemocratSinceBirth having posted an OP mentioning the 5 point lead.