Democratic Primaries

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Thu Jul 11, 2019, 11:51 AM Jul 2019

There's a new sheriff in Iowa and his name is Pete Buttigieg Pete 25% Elizabeth 18% Bernie 16%

Iowa
JUN 29-JUL 4, 2019
C+
Change Research
420 LV
Buttigieg
25%
7Warren
18%
Sanders
16%
Biden
16%
Harris
16%
O'Rourke
2%
Booker
1%
Gabbard
1%
Yang
1%
Klobuchar
1%
Castro
1%
Delaney
1%
Gillibrand
1%
Inslee
1%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ymbocHDaQhK_kXU8VxIUdADKMZR3ZtDqjWUfuuk2GhA/edit#gid=0

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

32 replies

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**There's a new sheriff in Iowa and his name is Pete Buttigieg** Pete 25% Elizabeth 18% Bernie 16% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 OP

Good for Mayor Pete riverine Jul 2019 #1

This thing ain't over yet! True Dough Jul 2019 #2

"This thing ain't over yet!" SouthernProgressive Jul 2019 #4

Me too. cwydro Jul 2019 #25

I have never thought that it was.. We have a very long way to go... hlthe2b Jul 2019 #6

There are still many DUers with an open mind True Dough Jul 2019 #14

+1000 bluewater Jul 2019 #27

yeah qazplm135 Jul 2019 #3

Iowa only... hlthe2b Jul 2019 #7

still don't believe it qazplm135 Jul 2019 #9

It is a caucus state, so the polls (even on caucus day) may not match up with reality... hlthe2b Jul 2019 #11

except generally speaking qazplm135 Jul 2019 #13

C+ rating poll... brandnewday2009 Jul 2019 #28

K&R BlueJac Jul 2019 #5

Checking the link I noticed this question at line 405: ucrdem Jul 2019 #8

And this question at line 330: ucrdem Jul 2019 #10

I think those are totals across all three states. honest.abe Jul 2019 #16

But what is that measuring? ucrdem Jul 2019 #12

I seriously doubt these numbers. honest.abe Jul 2019 #15

This message was self-deleted by its author Celerity Jul 2019 #17

That's an average of all three polls:IA, NH and SC DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #18

yes, I just saw the individual state breakdowns, silly me Celerity Jul 2019 #20

This message was self-deleted by its author Celerity Jul 2019 #20

Do polls really matter this far out? I recall Barack being discounted until caucus night. Princetonian Jul 2019 #19

The last DMR poll before the caucus matters BeyondGeography Jul 2019 #26

That makes a lot of sense. Princetonian Jul 2019 #30

they got obama leading right but hc wasnt second...edwards was questionseverything Jul 2019 #31

Hope it's true. LakeArenal Jul 2019 #22

Change Research is one of the polling companies: TexasTowelie Jul 2019 #23

"a new sheriff" crazytown Jul 2019 #24

K & R democrank Jul 2019 #29

How did they find folks to sit on a phone for that many questions?? IADEMO2004 Jul 2019 #32

riverine

(516 posts)

1. Good for Mayor Pete

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 11:59 AM

Jul 2019

He is in my top three with Amy K and Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

True Dough

(17,306 posts)

2. This thing ain't over yet!

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:00 PM

Jul 2019

Pete was the leading fundraiser in Q2.

Pete is the favorite candidate in Iowa.

There are several debates remaining and that's where Buttigieg shines.

He'll be on the Ax Files this Saturday evening, by the way.

GO PETE!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

SouthernProgressive

(1,810 posts)

4. "This thing ain't over yet!"

Reply to True Dough (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:10 PM

Jul 2019

I like Buttigieg a lot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

cwydro

(51,308 posts)

25. Me too.

Reply to SouthernProgressive (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:43 PM

Jul 2019

He’s in my top three.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

hlthe2b

(102,292 posts)

6. I have never thought that it was.. We have a very long way to go...

Reply to True Dough (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:15 PM

Jul 2019

Congrats to Mayor Pete on this improvement.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

True Dough

(17,306 posts)

14. There are still many DUers with an open mind

Reply to hlthe2b (Reply #6)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:30 PM

Jul 2019

But there are also many supporters of a particular candidate (ahem, front-runner) who want this race to essentially be conceded because only their candidate is electable and can carry the swing states, or so they say...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

27. +1000

Reply to True Dough (Reply #14)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:49 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)

3. yeah

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:09 PM

Jul 2019

I don't remotely believe that poll.
Buttigieg first?
Biden fourth?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

hlthe2b

(102,292 posts)

7. Iowa only...

Reply to qazplm135 (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:16 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)

9. still don't believe it

Reply to hlthe2b (Reply #7)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:18 PM

Jul 2019

I just dont find that order to line up with the current reality. Who knows how it ends up, lot of time, but right now? Not buying it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

hlthe2b

(102,292 posts)

11. It is a caucus state, so the polls (even on caucus day) may not match up with reality...

Reply to qazplm135 (Reply #9)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:20 PM

Jul 2019

Caucuses are very unpredictable. (as one sooooo glad that Colorado did away with them after 2016)

That said, I think it likely Buttigieg is truly making some inroads.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)

13. except generally speaking

Reply to hlthe2b (Reply #11)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:23 PM

Jul 2019

they do follow the polls more or less.

There's a flip one spot here or there from expectations but it usually ends close to how most folks expected.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

brandnewday2009

(287 posts)

28. C+ rating poll...

Reply to qazplm135 (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:57 PM

Jul 2019

= grain of salt

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueJac

(7,838 posts)

5. K&R

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:14 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)

8. Checking the link I noticed this question at line 405:

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:16 PM

Jul 2019

Which of the following candidates do you think is most likely to beat Donald Trump in 2020?

Joe Biden 32
Bernie Sanders 19
Kamala Harris 18
Elizabeth Warren 15

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)

10. And this question at line 330:

Reply to ucrdem (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:19 PM

Jul 2019

If the following people take part in the Democratic primary, who will you vote or caucus for?

Bernie Sanders 19
Elizabeth Warren 19
Joe Biden 18
Kamala Harris 17
Pete Buttigieg 15

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,678 posts)

16. I think those are totals across all three states.

Reply to ucrdem (Reply #10)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:46 PM

Jul 2019

Go to the far right to see the breakdown by state.

However I find these numbers very odd.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)

12. But what is that measuring?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:23 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,678 posts)

15. I seriously doubt these numbers.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:35 PM

Jul 2019

This polling company is suspect to me. They have often given odd results.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Celerity This message was self-deleted by its author.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

18. That's an average of all three polls:IA, NH and SC

Reply to Celerity (Reply #17)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:57 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Celerity

(43,415 posts)

20. yes, I just saw the individual state breakdowns, silly me

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #18)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 01:01 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #18)

Celerity This message was self-deleted by its author.

Princetonian

(1,501 posts)

19. Do polls really matter this far out? I recall Barack being discounted until caucus night.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 12:59 PM

Jul 2019

I was there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BeyondGeography

(39,374 posts)

26. The last DMR poll before the caucus matters

Reply to Princetonian (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:48 PM

Jul 2019

Obama finally took the lead in that one. Think it came out on New Year’s Eve. Lots of high fives that night among the O crowd. They called Kerry’s won with their last poll as well.

But to your question, polls this far out might tell you who’s in the mix but not much else.

Here’s that Obama poll:
https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/obama-pulls-ahead-in-register-poll/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Princetonian

(1,501 posts)

30. That makes a lot of sense.

Reply to BeyondGeography (Reply #26)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 07:16 PM

Jul 2019

Obama HQ in Des Moines were happy about that last poll but we did not dare relax. Hoping against hope it was right.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

questionseverything

(9,656 posts)

31. they got obama leading right but hc wasnt second...edwards was

Reply to BeyondGeography (Reply #26)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 07:26 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

LakeArenal

(28,820 posts)

22. Hope it's true.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 01:08 PM

Jul 2019

I’d love Pete to be in the top two.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TexasTowelie

(112,252 posts)

23. Change Research is one of the polling companies:

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 01:13 PM

Jul 2019

They received a C+ rating from 538.com and conduct their polls online.

The other partner in PollerCoaster is Crooked Media. That isn't particularly inspiring.

If I was a farmer in Iowa, I wouldn't be betting the farm based upon the results from this poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

24. "a new sheriff"

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:40 PM

Jul 2019

Nothing wrong with a little fun. When new polls are out, I go to DSB's postings first.

There's talk on the street; it sounds so familiar.
Great expectations, everybody's watching you.
People you meet, they all seem to know you.
Even your old friends treat you like you're something new.