***BRAND NEW A - RATED NBC WSJ POLL*** JB 26% EW 19% KH 13% BS 13%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-warren-top-2020-democratic-field-n1028971

[Peacetrain]

1. Thank You!!!

[still_one]

2. While this is a national poll, the distribution makes a hell of a lot more sense than the C+ rated

poll some have been pushing as something it isn't

[Peacetrain]

4. Maybe a preemptive strike

before this poll was due out..

[Cha]

6. Exactly, stillone.. see post #3 please.

I was thinking about the "national poll".. that yes.. but we already know Biden would stand a good chance in those rust belt states!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I post all polls without prejudice.

[thesquanderer]

24. Which C+ poll are you talking about? The one I've seen is Iowa only, so...

...that poll's figures have no relation to this one.

[Cha]

3. lol.. oh this is going to

upset somebody.

Thanks, DSB!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I post all polls without prejudice

[still_one]

11. Absolutely DSB!!!

[Cha]

18. The only way to do it!

[bluewater]

19. Absolutely! Check out my OP on this poll too.

Here's my post on this poll:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287198468

[still_one]

8. REC+++ 100+

[crazytown]

17. The sky is falling, the sky is falling

No its not Chicken Little
Yes it is,
the sky is falling up!

[Cha]

21. :)

Mahalo, still_one!

[still_one]

23. ................

[peggysue2]

9. Good to see

Although I am surprised at Kamala H. falling back behind Elizabeth W. Interesting.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Well, as so many here smarter than me said... Harris didn't do herself any favors in the debate

[Kahuna7]

20. She went on, The Breakfast Club to double down on the Biden is

stuck in a time warp with segregationists spin.

[madville]

30. She's going all in on the SC primary to give her a springboard

I think it's her only shot to get momentum in the first four states. A win there could help her in the rest of the Southern States. She's gonna need something besides California (which her, Biden, Warren, and Bernie could realistically split).

[emmaverybo]

22. Harris displayed her considerable prosecutorial skill and talent, at least in one area, the use of

narrative. However, as dazzling as one can imagine she would be in a courtroom, the presidency demands a far broader range of qualifications than the ability to bring the case.

The case she brought was flawed and rested on one issue from near fifty years ago— busing during the segregationist era— and she relied on tying Biden to segregationists to boost her numbers among the black electorate. I don’t think she was entirely successful, but she got
that boost and she got plenty of attention.

Now though, she has to get past Warren, with whom, given their tied status and that they are women, she is bound to be compared. The problem she must overcome, if she is to overcome Warren, is Warren’s larger national profile, her greater legislative experience, and her political qualifications.

Based on comments I have read about the glowing press reviews for Harris post-debate, many object to the positive hoopla and directly counter particular laudatory news stories with their own negative reaction to what they felt was Harris’s manipulative debate strategy.

These feelings will persist after the dazzle wears off. Harris hurt Biden, no doubt, but she damaged her credibility as well, and she did nothing to show why she should lead over Warren, whose character so far remains unscathed in the debates and throughout her long career.

[oasis]

10. Strike up the band.

[bluewater]

12. Great poll results for Warren!

"Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., lead the Democratic presidential field, according to the national
Biden gets the support of 26 percent of voters who say they will participate in next year’s Democratic primaries or caucuses, while 19 percent back Warren.

They’re followed by Sens. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who are tied at 13 percent.
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets support from 7 percent of Democratic primary voters, and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are at 2 percent."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-warren-top-2020-democratic-field-n1028971

Biden at 26% is right inline with his national polling average of 27.1 %

Warren at 19% is 5 points higher than her national polling average of 13.7%

-- Is Warren on the move up?

See national polling averages for all candidates at RealClearPolitics Polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[riverine]

15. Yes, it is. Can't spin it any other way.

I would like to see a new NH poll.

[Kahuna7]

14. ...

[Drunken Irishman]

16. So much for Biden's campaign being toast.

[bluewater]

28. um, let's all celebrate the FRONT RUNNER being at 26% in this poll ?

OK...



Honestly, how fragile is the Biden Campaign that getting 26% in a poll is viewed as great news?

[Drunken Irishman]

34. lol nice goal post moving...

It's a race of 21 candidates.

Here's the percent each front runner had in primaries with fewer candidates at this point:

2016 GOP: 20%
2012 GOP: 25%
2008 DNC: 36%
2008 GOP: 27%

So, despite a larger field, Biden is doing better than all but one of the front-runners at this point. Looks pretty good to me.

[bluewater]

41. Let's look at the Dem 2007 and 2015 frontrunners on July 11th

2007/2008 Democratic primary
July 11 2007: Hillary Clinton 38% as front runner
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html


2015/2016 Democratic primary
July 11 2015: Hillary Clinton 62.8% as front runner
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

the DEM frontrunner in 2007 was at 38%

The DEM front runner in 2015 was at 62.8%

So, yeah, 26% for a front runner in 2019 as well known as Joe Biden is on the light side.

Also, this year might have 20+ "announced candidates", but the number of people actually getting any polling numbers is much similar to 2008 in actuality.

For example:

Zogby America Poll
July 12–14, 2007
Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 11%, Bill Richardson 3%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Joe Biden 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Someone else 2%, Unsure 18%

So in 2007, Clinton had 37% and a +12 lead compared to Biden's 26% and +7 lead.

538 has a chart that shows a front runner at 37% has a MUCH greater chance of winning the nomination than one at 26%.

At 37% support a well known candidate has about a 65% chance of winning the nomination
At 26% support that chance drops to about a 25% chance of being nominated.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/

This is why Biden is perceived as a fragile front runner.

Thanks for the Discussion.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Thanks for proving my point...

It really is hilarious you compare this race to 2016 when there were literally only two viable candidates.

But your link proved my point - Biden's lead is larger today than most front-runners in a crowded primary field.


At this point, Biden's average lead, according to RCP, is +12 points. Compared to the other averages (as I did in my last post) and, well:

At this point in 2015, Trump was +5.
At this point in 2012, Romney was +10.3
At this point in 2008, Clinton was +15
At this point in 2008, Giuliani was +7

Biden is polling better than all three of the last Republican front-runners at this point (and two who went on to win the nomination). Hillary is the only outlier in 2008, as she was polling three-points better than Biden.

So, Biden absolutely should be happy with these numbers, especially in a crowded field where there's multiple viable candidates.

In 2008, it was a three-person show between Democrats as, after Obama's 23%, Edwards was the second closest at 13% and then no one else at five-percent or above.

So, yes, Biden is well positioned whether you want to admit it or not.

[bluewater]

44. You made some good points

I think I did too.

But often we were not discussing the same points.

Thanks for the discussion though, I appreciate the opportunity to discuss issues like these.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. My point is that Biden is sitting pretty good for a front-runner in a crowded field.

Moreover, it's not as if this is a lightweight field like in 2004 and 2008. And when I say that, I mean, once you got beyond the first couple candidates, the viability of the candidate dropped significantly. Chris Dodd was never going to win the nomination in 2008. Hell, neither was Joe Biden or Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel. There literally wasn't one candidate in the '08 primary, beyond Hillary, Obama and Edwards, who registered nationally.

Look at the candidates from 2008 (outside those three):

Bill Richardson
Joe Biden
Chris Dodd
Mike Gravel
Dennis Kucinich

Even then, even when you add the Big Three, you're still only at 8 candidates. Currently, the field is more than half that.

I believe Biden, Bernie, Harris, Warren and even Mayor Pete are all viable candidates. So viable that candidates like Booker and O'Rourke, who'd potentially be viable candidates in a primary season like '04, and maybe even '08, aren't. It's a deep, deep field. No candidate, at this point in the game, is going to dominate. But Biden's lead is still significant enough despite many writing off his campaign ever since he jumped into the race.

[BlueWI]

39. Biden's the front runner.

But he's not the only candidate with strong support.

And, every candidate has 0 votes, just FYI.

Let's win - for the party, which is bigger than one candidate.

[nycbos]

25. Bernie is in forth?

[Scurrilous]

26. K&R

[ucrdem]

29. It looks like Booker got to Palookaville safely.

Hope it was worth it.

[democratisphere]

31. Joe Biden remaining strong.

[NYMinute]

32. Prediction: Senator BS will be in single digits soon nt

[warmfeet]

33. Oh well.

I support Elizabeth Warren.

I will, reluctantly, vote for joe if he wins the nomination.

A liberal, he is not.

I have this crazy, insane, lunatic's dream, that one of the presidents in my lifetime, will be an actual bonafide liberal. I am 56 now, when do I get a liberal in the oval office? When do all of the liberals in this country get a liberal in the oval office?

Yeah, yeah - I know the routine. STFU, they tell me. Third way they tell me. I know the routine.

I will STFU, for now.

[Vegas Roller]

37. bonafide liberals cannot win middle America n/t

[BlueWI]

40. How would we know?

We'd rather nominate Dukakis, Gore, Hillary Clinton, and Mondale, and lose middle America repeatedly.

We win when we find a good campaigner and visionary (Bill Clinton, Obama).

[Politicub]

38. Obama was wonderfully liberal, so you have had one liberal president in this lifetime

Look through his record of the things he did and said in the face of a republican senate and house.

Don't you think he would have pushed more blockbuster legislation like the ACA had we had both houses of congress? Of course he would have. The ACA, too, would have evolved to be a better bill had we had enough votes to amend it in smart ways.

Even if Elizabeth Warren wins, and I hope very much that she does, she will be hamstrung if we don't flip enough senate seats and keep the house.

I miss Obama. I think Biden is pretty progressive, too. His strategy is to convince people that he will be able to get his progressive policies accomplished through working with democrats and republicans. If we win both the house and senate, he will not need to work with republicans very much. No matter who the nominee is, they need to have coattails that flip senate seats and statehouses. 2018 was a good bellwether.

Are you referring to the Third Way think tank? It's more of a self-referencing society than some organization that is effective. I haven't thought about them in years until I came across your post.

[Vegas Roller]

42. All our candidates are liberal

by "bona fide" they meant ultra left. The ultra left cannot win middle America.

[Politicub]

35. Biden is doing really well across an array of polls

There are so many that it's hard to keep up with what's national, state by state, democrats-only, etc.

[Vegas Roller]

36. K&R n/t

[SouthernProgressive]

46. Biden and Warren. My dream battle for the ticket. NT

[Scurrilous]

47. ...