7/19 NBC/SurveyMonkey poll: Biden 25%, Sanders 16%, Warren 16%, Harris 14%

[highplainsdem]

All others in single digits.

https://www.newsweek.com/warren-ties-sanders-new-poll-biden-2020-democrats-1450208

Senator Elizabeth Warren is ascendant in a new poll of 2020 Democratic candidates, reaching the second-tier status long dominated by Senator Bernie Sanders. However, the two remain perched behind perpetual frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden.

Warren and Sanders are both sharing the second-place slot at 16 percent, according to the NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Friday. Biden continues to sit atop the field at a comfortable 25 percent, somewhat lower than earlier polls but still well ahead of his nearest competitors.

Following Warren is Senator Kamala Harris, a result of her breakout debate performance in June, which recent polling, including Friday's NBC News survey, apparently reflects. Harris earned a 14-percent share of support among Democratic voters, the last candidate in the crowded 2020 field to receive double-digit support.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, at 8 percent, was the next-highest ranking candidate.

-snip-

Poll details here:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206543-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-National-Poll-Toplines.html

[qazplm135]

1. anyone's game among those four

this debate will move things a little...the debates without the one percenters will move things more.

[DownriverDem]

5. I hope

the candidates talk about the issues and not do attacks.

[qazplm135]

6. well buckle up

because politics isn't a pillow fight, and if you can't take the attacks from friends then you sure as heck can't take them from enemies.

[emulatorloo]

36. Not a fan of Scorched earth campaigning and character assasination between Democrats

I want to hear about policy and plans.

[qazplm135]

39. A political attack

Is not scorched Earth.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Seems like the race has stabilized for now.

There might be some shuffling among the top 4 candidates after the second debate, but I can't see any seismic shifts occurring until the fall. Mayor Pete has to get back on track quickly though or he risks being left behind.

[Cha]

3. KR!

[DownriverDem]

4. State by State

In order to win the Electoral College you have to win elections state by state. The election will be won in the middle. So polls here seem to be more left than middle. I like most of the candidates, but more than anything I want to beat trump. I hope folks here understand what I am saying. All that matters is to get rid of trump.

[qazplm135]

7. what a novel argument that no one has made yet

it's a centrist election and only Joe can win you say?

What a new and unique take that in no way has been repeatedly stated by a small group of Biden supporters over the last few months on here.

[bluewater]

8. +1000

25% support is what makes Biden a "fragile" frontrunner.

At least 4 other candidates are within easy striking distance, it will be interesting to see the polls after the candidate field thins out after the next debate.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. 25% in a field of 20-plus candidates is damn good.

Nothing fragile about it.

At this point in 2003 CNN poll, the front-runner, Joe Lieberman, had 16% of the vote, with his closest competitor, John Kerry (who'd win the nomination) at 14%:

When Democrats were asked who they would choose among nine contenders for their party's presidential nomination, the top choice was Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (16 per cent), followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (14 per cent) and Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt (12 per cent).

https://alt.impeach.bush.narkive.com/yR5jluSJ/fewer-americans-willing-to-vote-for-bush-poll

Biden's lead is pretty significant - either besting most recent leads by front-runners at this point or equal to it. There's one exception - 2008. But that is far more an anomaly.

[bluewater]

14. Biden's support was at 41% on May 10th, in this poll it's at 25%

let's ALL celebrate!

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Yup - Biden is still kicking ass.

[Thekaspervote]

31. Indeed he is!!

[qazplm135]

15. first, it's fallen almost in half from just a few months ago

second, there are only five candidates in this race...and to be honest only really four at this point unless Buttigieg has a second rise.

Third, 75 percent have picked someone who is "not Biden."

So no, Biden's lead is not pretty significant. It's single digits in many polls.

Now, is it better to be in the lead than not? Sure. Is it good to have dropped from the 40s to the 20s in a few short months? Uh, no.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Biden's lead right now is larger, on average, than all but two of the last few primaries...

So, your suggestion is not significant is just plain historically inaccurate. Only Hillary, in 2008 and 2016, had a larger lead than Biden does right now - and that accounts for both major parties and one election, 2016, which was between essentially two candidates (and one she won).

Sorry - Romney had a larger lead, too, at this point in 2011, but only had 24% of the GOP support - Biden is at, on average, 28.4%.

So, overall, Biden is out-pacing all but Hillary Clinton in terms of primary support going back to the 2004 primary. That's not a bad spot to be in at all.

[qazplm135]

21. lol

so, first of all it isn't larger than all but the last two primaries since you admit that Romney's was larger too but somehow because his number was slightly smaller that means we get rid of that one lol

second, most of the mid to late July 2015 polls had Trump up double digits...ABC/Wash Post, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Ipsos-Reuters, Rasmussen, Gravis, CBS, Monmouth, Fox all had him from 10-16 pts ahead. So it's actually both 2016 primaries, the only contested 2012 primary, the 2008 Dem Primary, and well, let's check the 2008 republican primary...nope wrong again, there were six mid-July polls that had Giuliani up quite substantially.

Now there were a couple of polls that had him up only a little bit against Fred Thompson if you want to hang your hat there.

So, in sum, no, nothing you said was true. Nothing about Biden's lead is special or unique. Having said lead can lead to victory (Trump, Clinton 16, Romney 12), OR it can as easily lead to defeat (Guiliani 08, Clinton 08).

and no, overall he is not "Outpacing" Clinton. Clinton was outpacing him at this point with a 3-person lead pack and a decent sized field in 08 and outpaced him with a two-person race now. It's effectively a four person race right now, so there's not much different in meaningful field size between 08 and now, except of course, Clinton was way out in front at this point in 08 and Biden is...not.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Trump's average lead as of today four years ago was two-points.

His lead over Bush. who was second, was 16.8% to 14.8%. Round that up and you get 17% to 15.

lol all you want - it doesn't make you right. Biden is out-pacing Trump not only in margin but total support.

[qazplm135]

24. I listed multiple polls

You posted this at midnight on the 20th so let's look at all the polls from the 19th and the 20th.

ABC Washington Post: Trump 24 Bush 12 July 16-19
Morning Consult: Trump 22 Bush 15 July 18-20
Economist You Gov: Trump 28 Bush 14 July 18-20
PPP: Trump 19 Bush 12 July 20-21
Ipsos Reuters: Bush 18 Trump 17 July 20-21 (This was the last poll Bush led)

From this point on, Trump never got lower than the low 20s to high 30s range.

This stuff is online, you realize that right? Jesus.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. I listed the average.

Your cherry-picking polls won't make you right. Just take your L and move along.

[qazplm135]

32. I listed ALL of the polls from the

this day at that time that you cited.

I have no idea what time period you listed as "average" but it most certainly wasn't an "average" of the polls on those days.

And it most certainly wasn't an "average" going forward.

Trump was on an upswing. He STARTED in the single digits and grew quickly.
Biden STARTED in the 40s and now is in the 20s.

Two polar opposite trends.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. I listed the average as of 7/19/2015

You can find it here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Biden's average currently is 28.4 - Trump didn't hit an average that high until 9/8/15 - where his average percentage hit 29%.

He'd reach 30.5 on 9/18 - but that proved temporary, as his average dipped below Biden's current percentage average on 9/21 and remained below Biden's current average until 11/30.

[qazplm135]

38. Lol

A running average over the entirety of a primary is stupid. Particularly when there's such a huge variance and clear trends.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. lol no it's not.

It gives you a snapshot of where the race stands and a particular day, in which case, Biden is doing just fine, especially when you compare him to other candidates who won the nomination in a crowded field.

[qazplm135]

41. when someone goes from 40s to 20s one way

and from single digits to near 20 the other way then no starting it from the very beginning makes no sense.

The race is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the day Bernie announced, or the day Biden announced, or the day Harris announced.

It's completely different now that Biden has lost half his support, Bernie is dropping to fifth in some polls, Warren is up to a strong second or third and Harris has at worst captured fourth, and Buttigieg has dropped to fifth and O'Rourke is absolutely gone.

To argue otherwise is ridiculous, and you know it.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. You're confused.

Your argument is all over the place. It's really hard to keep track. I never once stated the race wasn't different. I am unsure why you're even arguing that point? I think you must have me confused with another poster you were arguing with in this thread. But to bring you back to the point at hand - I stated originally that Biden was in a strong place. It's true today - it was true yesterday. Biden is in a better position today than Trump was in 2015 and Romney was in 2011. Biden's support has dropped, but it's been pretty consistent over the last month.

On 6/21, Biden's average was 31.9 and his lead over the candidate in second was 16.9 (over Bernie). Today, on 7/21, Biden's average is 28.4 and his lead over the candidate in second is 13.4. So, in a month, Biden's percentage slipped by 3.5 and his margin slipped by that same margin (3.5). Moreover, that was his numbers prior to the debate drop. On 7/1, Biden was at 27% and his margin over Sanders was 11.8. So, not only has Biden improved his overall percentage by 1.4%, his margin over the second-place candidate has also improved by 1.6, so, the trend continues to be favorable for Biden.

Now if he has another bad debate? Well, then yes, that will be an issue. But in the past three weeks, Biden has actually strengthened his support nationally.

[qazplm135]

43. lol most polls in the last two weeks

have him up in single digits or very low double digits, yet you call the average 28 percent today?
Yeah, I have no doubt you are confused by my argument.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. Here are the most polls...

Again, I think you're confused. You seem to believe the average incorporates every poll taken since the race began. This is not true.

The average is only incorporating the most recent polls, which you can find here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Biden's lead in the most recent polls:

+9
+13
+13
+7
+15

The oldest poll on this list was conducted through 7/8. So...

[qazplm135]

46. no here are the most recent polls

Economist/YouGov 7/14 - 7/16 25 12 16 11 6 2 3 0 1 1 1 1 2 Biden +9
The Hill/HarrisX 7/12 - 7/13 29 16 9 11 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 Biden +13
Politico/Morning Consult 7/8 - 7/14 32 19 14 13 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 Biden +13
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/7 - 7/9 26 13 19 13 7 2 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 Biden +7
Economist/YouGov 7/7 - 7/9 22 12 18 15 6 1 2 1 3 1 1 0 1 Biden +4

You (and RCP) have substituted a +4 poll with a plus 15 poll despite the fact that the plus 15 poll came before the +4 poll.

So, add those five together and divide by 5, and what do you get? single digits.

Now throw in the next five polls and divide by ten.


Emerson 7/6 - 7/8 30 15 15 15 5 4 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 Biden +15
Politico/Morning Consult 7/1 - 7/7 31 19 13 14 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 Biden +12
Economist/YouGov 6/30 - 7/2 23 9 19 15 8 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 Biden +4
ABC News/Wash Post 6/28 - 7/1 30 19 12 13 4 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 Biden +11
Quinnipiac 6/28 - 7/1 22 13 14 20 4 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 Biden +2

What do you STILL get? Single digits.
What do you NOT get?
A 38 pt lead for Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

47. You're so angry.

I provided you the polls. I did not compile that list. It's done by RCP. They have Biden's current average at 13.4.

Here, check if you don't believe me:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Drunken Irishman]

49. I hope you can find some compassion in your life.

Fortunately, your candidate isn't as rude as you are. Good luck. You're a terrible ambassador for Sen. Harris.

[Thekaspervote]

30. Why so angry?? It doesn't help

[qazplm135]

33. I don't like it

when people say things that are manifestly untrue.

Otherwise, I am not "angry."

Let me know when you have something useful to contribute in the future though.

[Thekaspervote]

28. Please put links to your claims that Biden's lead is single digit!!

[qazplm135]

34. wow

from the original post in the very thread you are responding to:

"Warren and Sanders are both sharing the second-place slot at 16 percent, according to the NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Friday. Biden continues to sit atop the field at a comfortable 25 percent,..."

Math quiz, what is 25-16?
After you determine that, tell me if it's single digits or not.

Three of the last five polls are also single digits (+9, +7, +4, +13, +13). The average is less than 10 (9.5), i.e. single digits.
Five of the last ten as well. The average of those is also less than ten (9 exactly).

So, yeah, single digits.

[Agschmid]

44. I think (I could be wrong) most of his 40%+ polling was from before he was even running.

I wouldn’t count those, I do think it’s clear he has fallen since entering the race but he’s still in the lead.

[Bradshaw3]

26. No, the anomaly is when the early front-runner goes on to win the Democratic nomination

Between JFK and HRC, only one non-incumbent President or Vice-President who was leading in the early polls went on to win the Democratic nomination.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-1/

Obama trailing early and coming on to win the nomination in 2008 has actually been the norm. See also Bill Clinton, Carter, McGovern, etc.

[Thekaspervote]

27. Agree! And recent polls show warren and sanders supporters second choice is Biden

[highplainsdem]

9. With the exception of the latest Quinnipiac CA poll where Harris has a narrow lead within the margin

of error -- and where she lost more than half of her supporters when they were asked which candidate is most likely to beat Trump, where Biden had 45% of those polled compared to 11% for her -- Biden's led in almost all the state and national polls for months now, just as he's led by a wider margin than any other Democrat when they poll for a specific candidate against Trump. As Trump discovered with his own polls, done in states he needs to win to be re-elected.

No, it isn't a novel argument. It's an argument based on the polls. On the facts about voters' preferences, as far as they can be determined at this point.

Sorry you don't like those facts.

[qazplm135]

10. those aren't "facts"

ignoring polling trends isn't a fact either.

But hey, enjoy these "facts" while they last, because the trend is not remotely Biden's friend (or Bernie's either for that matter).
If it's anyone's friend, it's Warren's.

[highplainsdem]

12. Those polls are voters' stated preferences, and they're the most important facts available at this

point in the race.

[bluewater]

11. Let's ALL celebrate Biden being at 25% support!!

I think most of the other campaigns are delighted that Biden's support is at 25% in this poll at this point in time.

If the Biden Campaign is happy that he isn't lower, then we should ALL celebrate!



Let's see what happens after the next debate.

[oasis]

18. When voters begin to acquaint themselves with Biden's healthcare

plan they'll have even more to celebrate. Right now, I'm happy to join you in your temporary moment of merriment.

[femmedem]

19. That's such a harsh way to speak to a member of our community.

Regardless of whether you've heard that argument before, this member took pains not to attack any of us or any of our candidates and didn't deserve that response.

[Scurrilous]

20. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

23. Makes me wonder if either BS or Warren dropped out, would their support go to the other, or...

if it would benefit one of the lower tier candidates?

[Thekaspervote]

29. As mentioned above, recent polls show warren and sanders supporters 2nd choice is Biden

[Tarheel_Dem]

37. Cool! Thanks. n/t