Public Policy Polling: The Southern Path to a Democratic Win in 2020

[highplainsdem]

New article today from PPP:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-southern-path-to-a-democratic-win-in-2020/

The lion’s share of discussion about the states Democrats need to win to take back the White House in 2020 has focused on the trio of Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those states do indeed present the clearest path to 270 electoral votes and our early polling has found that Democrats are well positioned in them. But new PPP surveys in a pair of states- Georgia and North Carolina- that combined have only voted Democratic for President once in the last 27 years- show a possible backup plan to victory in the South as well.

Trump is underwater in both Georgia (which he won by 5 points in 2016) and North Carolina (which he won by 4 points in 2016.) In Georgia 45% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove and in North Carolina 46% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. In Georgia Trump trails a generic Democrat for reelection 50-46, and in North Carolina Trump trails a generic Democrat for reelection 49-44. We wouldn’t go so far as to say Trump is an underdog based on these numbers- Democrats may very well end up with a candidate who’s not as strong as Good Old Generic- but we see them as toss ups if Trump remains as unpopular as he is right now.

-snip-

Generational change is a big reason why Georgia’s finding itself on the potential battleground state list. This poll found a generic Democrat leading Trump 64-24 among voters under 30, 59-33 when you expand it to voters under 45, and 52-43 when you expand it to voters under 65. Georgia (along with Texas) has one of the biggest age gaps we see in our polling and that makes it almost inevitable that some year- if not 2020- Democrats are going to get a big statewide win in one or both of those states.

Part of generational change in Georgia is the electorate becoming more and more racially diverse and that plays to Democrats’ advantage as well. White Georgians continue to be an incredibly Republican group, giving Trump a 69-27 advantage. But nonwhite voters- who are growing in their share of the electorate- say they will vote Democratic over Trump 84-12 next year.

Democrats having a real shot in North Carolina should come as no surprise either. It was the second closest state in the country for President in both 2008 (behind just Missouri) and 2012 (behind just Florida). Last fall Democrats swept the statewide elections in the state, although Republicans were lucky that it happened to be a ‘blue moon’ election cycle in which only judicial races were on the ballot. North Carolina has the same trend as Georgia where an increasingly diverse electorate creates opportunities for Democrats at the state level- white voters support Trump 57-36, but the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate gives a generic Democrat an 80-11 advantage over Trump next year.

-snip-

[Cha]

1. KR!

Thank You!

[Peacetrain]

2. North Carolina and the research triangle outside of Charlotte.. are

taking North Carolina to a pretty shade of purple... can blue be far behind??

[TheRealNorth]

3. Not if the Russians can help it

By hacking the voter registration database and slow down voter registration/verification to a crawl like they did in 2016.

[dsc]

6. The Research Triangle isn't outside of Charlotte

it is outside of Raleigh.

[Demsrule86]

4. I don't think it will happen and you would need more the Georgia and North Carolina.

[Gothmog]

5. Texas will be a battleground state this cycle

[dsc]

7. I think we have a decent shot at NC

Cooper is doing well in the polls and killing it in fund raising. The legislature is still very unpopular and is doing nothing to change that as far as I can tell. We have a decent candidate for Senate if he gets through the primaries and teachers will crawl over broken glass to vote out the current state superintendent and will likely be voting for other Dems while there.

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. K&R

[Rstrstx]

9. I'd say Arizona is even riper to flip

Looking at their Senate race in 2018 together with their vote-by-mail campaign I think they'll be more likely to flip, if for no other reason than they don't seem to be suppressing voter participation the way GA, NC, FL, TX, WI etc do. It's not a big state but would give a cushion in case the Rs by some miracle (Putin) manage to hold WI.

[Hortensis]

10. I'm in Georgia, and my more conservative neighbors know I'm wicked

Last edited Sat Jul 20, 2019, 07:49 AM - Edit history (2)

and a grave threat to all that is good in America. (Thank heavens for the rest.)

I want this to be right and that those of GA's voters who've remained rational and those who didn't vote before come out in 2020 like never before. Georgia voted 45% Democratic in 2016, has potential to vote in higher numbers, and 25% of whites and 73% of blacks are registered Democrats. It could be possible.

But Georgia's southern conservatism is both southern religion based and southern bigotry based (significant interaction in those) and very deep and intransigent. And currently irrationally feeling extremely endangered.

Most white southern conservatives not only would vote for Satan himself to defeat Democrats but have already been doing just that with great righteousness. "Satan" and company have had no difficulty convincing those who want to believe that God sent him to rescue our nation from the Democrats.

A full third of Georgians are black now, and the combination of potential black and white Democratic (and hopefully fallway Republican) power is inspiring, but that's a double-edged sword. The black menace alone has always stimulated white bigotry and driven it to the polls in extremely high numbers, and now the liberal menace has exploded into an existential threat. Whether POC come out themselves for whoever our Democratic candidate is (we know it won't be President Obama) in just as high percentages will be a huge factor, as of course will be how many are able to vote and have their votes counted. Many are men and/or conservative, and in 2018 something close to 10% of registered black men did not vote for GA to have our first black governor.

As to election theft, we all know the governor's race was blatantly stolen and that Stacy Abrams used all legal avenues (the laws were written by conservative legislators) to fight it without success.

With the Republican-dominated federal government and some courts packed with their agents determined to enable election theft in 2020, and we should assume they are, it is literally not possible for Democrats to fix that for the next election. We have to do what we can to minimize rapidly worsening election theft and win anyway so that we can pass our election reform package.

Here in Georgia our old electronic voting system was clearly designed by the Republicans who've always held power to help them to keep it that way. Legislation for an upgrade has been languishing on Criminal Brian Kemp's desk. If worst came to worst for our Republicans, they might conceivably need Russia's help for once. But I doubt it will.

Just some thoughts from Georgia to go with the positive.