7/19 NBC/SurveyMonkey - 4 Southern state polls including GA - Biden 15-26 pts ahead of other Dems

[highplainsdem]

Tennessee:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206545-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Tennessee-Poll-7-19.html

Biden 33%
Warren 18%
Sanders 13%
Harris 12%
Buttigieg 6%



Mississippi

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206542-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Mississippi-Poll-7-19.html

Biden 47%
Sanders 21%
Harris 8%
Warren 7%
Buttigieg, Bennet and Booker 3% each



Georgia

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206541-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Georgia-Poll-7-19.html

Biden 31%
Harris 15%
Warren 13%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 5%



Alabama

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206538-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Alabama-Poll-7-19.html

Biden 36%
Sanders 15%
Harris 13%
Warren 9%
Buttigieg 5%



The numbers for Georgia are particularly important given an article from Public Policy Polling this morning about Georgia showing signs of turning blue in the presidential race next year:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287206109

[bluewater]

1. Yes, Harris is making inroads into Biden's support with African American democrats!

It will be interesting to see the polls after the next debate.

[Cha]

4. Biden is ahead!!!!! YAYAYAYAYAYAYAY!

[padah513]

6. Lol

[Cha]

7. ..

[onetexan]

16. LOL Cha your enthusiasm is infectious

I must say it's impressive how well Joe is doing in these southern states, esp'ly GA & MS!

[Cha]

19. Impressed and Happy!

Mahalo, onetexan.. I feel the same when I see Biden supporters standing strong!

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Ditto!

[Cha]

20. lol!

Aloha, Tarheel!.. Me too!

[highplainsdem]

5. Can you show me the internal numbers for these polls to back up that statement?

I've looked over them and don't see any info about that.

[bluewater]

8. Poll: Biden's support drops among black voters

Former Vice President Joe Biden's support among black voters has slid, but he still holds a double-digit lead against his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new poll.

A Morning Consult survey released on Tuesday finds Biden in the lead with the support of 31 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 19 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.) at 14 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) at 13 percent.

The 7-point drop for Biden in the past three weeks comes as Harris has improved by 8 points in that time. Support for Sanders and Warren is unchanged in Morning Consult polling.

Biden’s loss of support is almost wholly attributable to softer support from black voters. The former vice president lost 8 points among that key constituency, while Harris picked up 7 points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/452134-poll-bidens-support-drops-among-black-voters

The results of this B RATED MorningConsult Poll are totally inline with the results of the D- RATED NBC/SurveyMonkey - 4 Southern state polls you posted today.

Your D- Rated polls, as rated by 538, were first time polls for those states, but they did return similar results to the B Rated MorningConsult poll that HAS been tracking shifts in black voter preference.

MorningConsult shows Biden losing black voter support to Harris.

It will be interesting to see the polls after the next debate.

[highplainsdem]

10. I post all the polls I find, including Morning Consult. I posted this week's MC polls, which showed

Harris slipping and Biden rising. I suppose by your style of analysis that means Harris is quickly losing the support she gained.

[bluewater]

11. No need to get personal.

There is no need for statements like: "I suppose by your style of analysis..."

An ad Hominem attack is a sign of a losing argument.

I think I have defended my position clearly and with facts, and see no need to restate them again.

Thank you for the discussion.

[highplainsdem]

12. By "your style of analysis" I mean taking a short-term fluctuation in the polls as a trend. We

haven't had enough polls since the debate to show that Harris is making significant, long-lasting inroads into Biden's support among black voters.

And again, I couldn't find anything in materials I could find for these latest polls of individual Southern states to back up your flat statement about them, which is why I asked what you were basing it on. Your statement started this sub-thread.

And you explained that you were basing it on another poll showing a change in black support for Biden that the latest version of that poll indicates may already be reversing, returning to what it was last month.

My pointing this out is not an ad hominem argument.

Btw, I appreciate your finally adding a link to the quote you posted about the Morning Consult poll. Since you didn't include it at first, I had to google it to figure out what you were quoting.

[Cha]

22. That was Not a "personal attack"..

She explained it very well what she meant by "your style of analysis".

I actually prefer highplainsdem's analysis of polls.

[Cha]

2. It would be so Cool if

we Dems could get Southern States to Go BLUE!

Thanks for this, highplainsdem!

[oasis]

3. Georgians are surely aware that Stacey Abrams would be on Biden's

short list for VP.

[FloridaBlues]

9. Biden holding steady with solid leads. Wonder if msm will comment on poll?

Since they did their best to tear him down. Got to say I'm leaning Biden more than before.

[Skya Rhen]

13. Biden will be the winner in almost all of the states, including the Red States. He's got this!

[charlyvi]

14. I don't want Joe to be our nominee.

I don't think he's been very sharp in his answers to reporters or in his debate performance. Having said that, if he is our nominee I will crawl over broken glass to vote for him. As I would for any of the others, including Sanders (reluctantly).

[book_worm]

15. Biden's doing well in the south, but the surprise for me is Warren...

She's running second in TN and statistically tied for second in GA.

[dsc]

17. I am surprised Buttigieg isn't doing better than he is in Georgia

Atlanta has a fairly large gay community and other voters that have tended to favor him. The rest of the states are no real surprise although him at 5% in Alabama is a good surprise.

[JI7]

21. from what i have seen many lgbt seem to be going for Biden .

it might have more to do with questions about whether buttigieg can win nationally. it could be similar to 2008 where black voters were with Clinton until Obama won Iowa . So if Buttigieg can win Iowa which they might feel more comfortable with him as a candidate.

[dsc]

23. I didn't think he would be winning GA or anything

but I just felt he would be higher (closer to his national average of around 7) than he is given that GA is more like a national Democratic electorate. I find it baffling he is doing no better in GA and AL.